United Arab Emirates vs Syria Prediction
United Arab Emirates v Syria: Model Favors UAE in High-Scoring Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
United Arab Emirates
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Syria
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
United Arab Emirates vs Syria Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: United Arab Emirates vs Syria?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This United Arab Emirates vs Syria Prediction
United Arab Emirates enter this international friendly against Syria with a modest Elo edge of +49 points (1540 vs 1491), translating to a 53% win probability according to the model. The analytics suggest a match with attacking intent on both sides, with UAE’s recent form providing a slight boost to their expected goals. The model’s final expected goals line stands at 1.82 for UAE and 1.14 for Syria, indicating a likely home win but with enough volatility for Syria to pose a threat. Both teams have shown attacking momentum in their last five matches, with UAE’s attack multiplier at 1.135 and Syria’s at 1.081. However, Syria’s defensive leakiness (leak factor 1.18) could be their undoing, especially against a UAE side that has scored 1.8 goals per game in recent outings. The most probable scorelines are tightly clustered, with 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.8%), and 1-0 (9.4%) all plausible outcomes.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Final expected goals: UAE 1.82, Syria 1.14 after momentum adjustments.
- →Recent H2H: UAE unbeaten in last five vs Syria (3 wins, 2 draws).
Defence
- →UAE’s attack momentum (1.135) and Syria’s defensive leakiness (1.18) shape the scoring outlook.
Match Context
- →UAE hold a +49 Elo rating advantage (1540 vs 1491), boosting their win probability to 53%.
- →BTTS is favoured at 57%, with over 2.5 goals hitting 57% probability.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.40 · 1.20
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.82 · 1.14
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: United Arab Emirates attacking form lifts their goals ×1.14; Syria attacking form lifts their goals ×1.08; Syria's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = United Arab Emirates goals, columns = Syria goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.4%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind United Arab Emirates vs Syria that most previews miss.
- 1Syria have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game.
- 2BTTS has landed in four of Syria’s last five games, aligning with the model’s 57% BTTS probability.
- 3UAE have not lost to Syria in their last five head-to-head meetings, winning three and drawing two.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with an Elo baseline, where UAE’s rating of 1540 versus Syria’s 1491 gives the hosts a moderate advantage and an expected score share of 0.57. The next step integrates attacking and defensive factors, but due to limited data on player-level xG and defensive suppression, the model relies on team-level adjustments. Both sides are rated neutrally (factor 1.0), but recent form is then layered in: UAE’s attack is running hot (1.135), while Syria’s defence is struggling (leak 1.18), nudging the expected goals higher for the hosts. After blending Elo-derived and xG-based expected goals (UAE: 1.359, Syria: 1.241), the model applies momentum, resulting in final λ values of 1.82 for UAE and 1.14 for Syria. These scoring rates feed into a Poisson model to simulate exact scoreline probabilities, yielding a 53% chance of a UAE win, 23% for a draw, and 24% for Syria. The most likely outcomes are 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0, each with around a 9–11% chance.
More Friendlies Predictions
United Arab Emirates vs Syria Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
United Arab Emirateslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Syrialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
UAE have taken 10 points from their last five matches (LWDWW), averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, and keeping three clean sheets. Syria, by contrast, have struggled defensively, conceding 2.2 goals per game and failing to keep a clean sheet in their last five (LDLWL). Both teams have shown some attacking intent, but Syria’s defensive leakiness is a concern.
United Arab Emirates vs Syria — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: United Arab Emirates vs Syria
United Arab Emirates have a strong recent record against Syria, unbeaten in their last five meetings with three wins and two draws. Their last encounter ended 3-1 in favour of UAE. Syria have not managed a win in this fixture over the past five years.
United Arab Emirates vs Syria Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
3
United Arab Emirates wins
2
Draws
0
Syria wins
Things to Watch: United Arab Emirates vs Syria
- ⚠️No odds available at present, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies are prone to rotation and experimentation, adding to unpredictability.
- ⚠️Player-level xG and defensive data are sparse for these sides, increasing model uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
United Arab Emirates 2–1 SyriaThe model predicts a 2-1 victory for United Arab Emirates, with the 1.82–1.14 expected goals edge and a 53% win probability for the hosts standing out as the strongest indicator. However, the model also highlights the volatility of friendlies and Syria’s ability to score, so a draw or a high-scoring affair cannot be ruled out, especially given Syria’s 57% BTTS probability.
United Arab Emirates vs Syria: Common Questions
Who will win United Arab Emirates vs Syria?
The model gives United Arab Emirates a 53% chance of victory, with Syria at 24% and a draw at 23%. UAE are slight favourites based on Elo and recent form.
Will both teams score in UAE vs Syria?
Yes, both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 57% probability by the model, reflecting Syria’s recent defensive struggles and UAE’s attacking momentum.
What are the most likely scorelines for UAE vs Syria?
The top three predicted scorelines are 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 to UAE (9.8%), and 1-0 to UAE (9.4%), indicating a close match with a slight edge to the hosts.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for United Arab Emirates vs Syria: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 12 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.