US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
US Ben Guerdane
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 0 - 1
CS Sfaxien
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.7/10Ten-Man Sfaxien Hold Ben Guerdane in Fiery Tunisian Ligue 1 Draw
US Ben Guerdane and CS Sfaxien shared the spoils in a tense 1-1 draw at the 7 March Stadium, with both sides finding the net in a match marked by discipline issues and a second-half red card. Sfaxien struck first in the 33rd minute, but their momentum was disrupted after being reduced to ten men. Ben Guerdane capitalized on their numerical advantage to level the score midway through the second half. Despite a flurry of yellow cards—four for the hosts and two for the visitors—the match saw both teams struggle to carve out a clear winner. Sfaxien’s resilience after going a man down was matched by Ben Guerdane’s inability to break through for a decisive goal, leaving both sides with a point apiece.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
33' — Goal
CS Sfaxien take the lead with a well-taken goal.
Second half' — Red Card
CS Sfaxien reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum.
63' — Goal
US Ben Guerdane equalize, capitalizing on their numerical advantage.
Throughout' — Yellow Cards
A total of six yellow cards—four to Ben Guerdane, two to Sfaxien—reflect the match's intensity.
US Ben Guerdane
US Ben Guerdane showed determination and attacking intent, especially after falling behind in the first half. Their response in the second half was spirited, as they pressed forward and managed to equalize in the 63rd minute. However, despite playing against ten men for a significant portion of the match, they struggled to convert their advantage into a winning goal. Discipline was a concern, with four yellow cards picked up, which at times disrupted their rhythm. While they controlled much of the play after the red card, a lack of clinical finishing prevented them from taking all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
CS Sfaxien
CS Sfaxien started brightly, taking the lead in the 33rd minute and looking composed in the first half. However, their task became significantly harder after a red card reduced them to ten men. Despite this setback, Sfaxien defended resolutely and managed to hold onto a valuable away point. Their discipline faltered with two yellow cards and a costly red, but their organization and work rate after the sending off were commendable, frustrating the hosts and limiting clear-cut chances.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both lineups unavailable, the tactical narrative was shaped by the match events. Sfaxien’s early lead allowed them to sit deeper and absorb pressure, but the red card forced a clear tactical shift: they dropped numbers behind the ball, focused on compactness, and relied on counter-attacks. Ben Guerdane, sensing an opportunity, pushed more players forward and increased their attacking width after the sending off, but struggled to break down Sfaxien’s disciplined low block. Set pieces and transitions became increasingly important as the match wore on, with Ben Guerdane looking to exploit their man advantage, but ultimately lacking the final pass or finish to claim victory.
Turning Point
The red card to CS Sfaxien in the second half, which allowed Ben Guerdane to equalize and dominate possession.
Man of the Match
63rd minute goalscorer (US Ben Guerdane)
Scored the vital equalizer and was a constant threat as Ben Guerdane pressed for a winner.
US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien: Match Preview
US Ben Guerdane return to the 7 March Stadium after a mixed run-in to last season, picking up two wins but also suffering two home defeats in their last five. They failed to score in three of those matches, highlighting a persistent lack of attacking output. CS Sfaxien arrive off the back of a 1-1 away draw to Stade Tunisien on opening day and a strong finish to last season, including back-to-back three-goal wins in May. With both sides in the lower half of the early standings, the immediate objective is stability rather than risk-taking.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by conservative tendencies on both sides. Ben Guerdane’s last five average just one goal per game in total (0.6 scored, 0.4 conceded), while Sfaxien’s last five competitive matches average 2.2, but that is inflated by two high-scoring wins. The home side kept three clean sheets in their last five, but also failed to score three times. Sfaxien have found the net in four of five, but their defensive record—just 0.6 conceded per game—suggests they are unlikely to be stretched. H2H history is equally stark: six of the last ten meetings finished under 2.5 goals, and only one saw both teams score.
The model expects a low-event contest, with the away side’s superior attacking rates nudging them ahead. The likeliest outcomes are a 1-0 win for CS Sfaxien or a goalless draw, with the probability of under 2.5 goals at 82%. Unless one side departs from their established risk-averse approach, a single goal may well decide it.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.55
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
17%
BTTS: Yes
24%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien that most previews miss.
- 1US Ben Guerdane have seen both teams score in none of their last five matches—three clean sheets, three blanks.
- 2CS Sfaxien have scored five first-half goals and only three in the second half over their last five, hinting at early attacking intent.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, and three ended 1-0 to the away side.
Who do you think wins: US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides show a strong bias to low-scoring matches: US Ben Guerdane have averaged just 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in their last five, while CS Sfaxien’s last five league and cup matches average 2.2 total goals. The model gives an 82% probability to under 2.5 goals.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
US Ben Guerdane have failed to score in three of their last five, and none of their last five saw both teams score. The model puts BTTS: No at 77%.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw
With both teams defensively solid and the last five H2H meetings at this ground producing three away wins by a single goal and two matches with a single goal or fewer, the draw is a live outcome at 39% probability.
Read more ↓
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien Prediction
This fixture projects as a low-scoring, tightly contested encounter, with CS Sfaxien’s marginal attacking edge offset by Ben Guerdane’s defensive discipline and the historically cagey nature of their meetings.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →CS Sfaxien have scored in four of their last five competitive matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game.
- →Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have been won by CS Sfaxien, with six finishing under 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →US Ben Guerdane average just 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game over their last five.
How US Ben Guerdane and CS Sfaxien Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
US Ben Guerdanelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CS Sfaxienlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
US Ben Guerdane’s recent form is patchy, with two wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last five, but more telling is their lack of goals—just three scored in that span. CS Sfaxien have shown greater attacking consistency, winning three of their last five and scoring at least once in four of those matches. Momentum favours the visitors, but both sides have leaned towards defensive solidity.
US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien
CS Sfaxien have dominated this matchup, winning seven of the last ten meetings and keeping clean sheets in six. The last five encounters at Ben Guerdane’s ground have produced just seven goals in total, with three 1-0 away wins for Sfaxien. Draws are rare, but low scores are the rule.
US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
US Ben Guerdane wins
2
Draws
7
CS Sfaxien wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be formally assessed. However, the model’s strong lean to under 2.5 goals (82%) and BTTS: No (77%) would typically suggest value if market prices are above 1.25 and 1.30 respectively. The 1X2 market is finely balanced, with the draw and away win both at 39%, so any significant market drift could present opportunity.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien
- ⚠️Seasonal data is incomplete for both teams, increasing reliance on last five matches and H2H rates.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations and expected value are not provided.
- ⚠️Early season context means squad changes and tactical shifts may not be fully captured in the data.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
US Ben Guerdane 0–1 CS SfaxienThe model projects a 1-0 win for CS Sfaxien, driven by their 1.6 goals per game average over the last five and Ben Guerdane’s frequent attacking blanks. The strongest data point is the 0.6 goals per game scored by the home side in recent matches. The main risk is an early goal opening up the game, but the underlying rates point to a low-scoring, narrow away win.
US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien: Common Questions
Who will win US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien?
CS Sfaxien are marginal favourites with a 39% win probability, while the draw is equally likely at 39%. US Ben Guerdane’s win chance is just 22%, reflecting both recent form and a dominant H2H record for the visitors.
Will both teams score in US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien?
Both teams to score is unlikely, with the model giving just a 23% probability. US Ben Guerdane have failed to score in three of their last five, and none of those matches saw both sides find the net.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien?
The model strongly favours under 2.5 goals at 82% probability, based on both teams’ low scoring and concession rates and a H2H trend towards tight, low-scoring matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for US Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.