Vietnam vs Myanmar Prediction
Vietnam heavy favourites over Myanmar in Thai Nguyen friendly clash
International Friendly · World
Vietnam
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Myanmar
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
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Expected goals · model says 2.45
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 2-1 · 3-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vietnam vs Myanmar Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Vietnam vs Myanmar?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Vietnam vs Myanmar Prediction
Vietnam enter this friendly against Myanmar with a commanding Elo advantage of 369 points (1351 vs 982), translating to a 71.9% probability of victory according to the model. The expected goals line is similarly one-sided: Vietnam’s final expected goals after all adjustments sit at 2.43, compared to Myanmar’s 0.86, reflecting both sides’ recent form and historical strength. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 to Vietnam, with a 11% probability, and the top three correct scores all favour the hosts. Recent form further tilts the scales. Vietnam have won five on the bounce, scoring an average of 3.2 goals per game and conceding just 0.4, while Myanmar’s last five have been far more volatile, with two losses and an average of 2.2 goals both scored and conceded. The head-to-head record is also clear: Vietnam have won three of the last four meetings, including a dominant 5-0 win in their most recent encounter.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Final expected goals: Vietnam 2.43, Myanmar 0.86 after momentum adjustment.
Attack
- →Vietnam’s recent form: 5 wins from 5, averaging 3.2 goals scored per game.
Defence
- →Myanmar have not kept a clean sheet in their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Vietnam’s Elo rating is 369 points higher than Myanmar’s (1351 vs 982).
- →Vietnam have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
2.04 · 0.56
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
2.43 · 0.86
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Vietnam attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; Myanmar attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; Myanmar's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Vietnam goals, columns = Myanmar goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.1%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Vietnam vs Myanmar that most previews miss.
- 1Vietnam’s last five matches have all ended in victory, with three clean sheets and no games where they failed to score.
- 2Myanmar’s last five matches have produced both teams scoring in 80% of games, but they have not kept a single clean sheet.
- 3The last meeting between these sides ended 5-0 to Vietnam, and Myanmar have never beaten Vietnam in their last four encounters.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with a baseline derived from Elo ratings, where Vietnam’s 1351 rating dwarfs Myanmar’s 982, setting the expectation for a strong home performance. This Elo gap translates to an initial expected score of 0.893 for Vietnam and just 0.107 for Myanmar. Next, the model considers expected goals (xG) based on each side’s attack and defensive profiles. Due to limited player-level data, base factors are used, but the model blends Elo-derived and xG-derived lines (Vietnam 2.04 Elo λ, 1.3 xG λ; Myanmar 0.56 Elo λ, 1.3 xG λ) to produce blended expected goals of 1.74 for Vietnam and 0.86 for Myanmar. Momentum adjustments are then applied, reflecting recent form: Vietnam’s attack multiplier of 1.18 and defensive leak of 0.85 raise their final λ to 2.43, while Myanmar’s attack and leak multipliers (both 1.18) bring their final λ to 0.86. These scoring rates are run through a Poisson model to generate exact probabilities for each scoreline and outcome, resulting in a 71.9% win probability for Vietnam, 16.7% for a draw, and 11.4% for Myanmar. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (9.5%), and 1-0 (9.1%) in Vietnam’s favour.
More Friendlies Predictions
Vietnam vs Myanmar Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vietnamlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Myanmarlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vietnam’s recent form is outstanding, with five consecutive wins, an average of 3.2 goals scored, and just 0.4 conceded per game. They have kept three clean sheets in that span and have not failed to score in any of their last five. Myanmar, by contrast, have a mixed record: two losses in their last five, with 2.2 goals both scored and conceded per game, and no clean sheets. Both sides’ momentum multipliers (1.18 attack for each) reflect a recent uptick in attacking output.
Vietnam vs Myanmar — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 3.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Vietnam vs Myanmar
Vietnam and Myanmar have met four times since 2016, with Vietnam winning three and drawing one. The most recent encounter was a 5-0 win for Vietnam in December 2024, underlining their dominance in this fixture. Myanmar have yet to register a win against Vietnam in this period.
Vietnam vs Myanmar Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
3
Vietnam wins
1
Draws
0
Myanmar wins
Things to Watch: Vietnam vs Myanmar
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are currently available for this match, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotations and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️Form data for international sides can be sparse and may not fully capture recent changes in team strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Vietnam 2–0 MyanmarThe model’s call is clear: Vietnam are overwhelming favourites, with a predicted 2-0 win and a 71.9% chance of victory. The single strongest number behind this is the final expected goals line of 2.43 vs 0.86, which reflects both the Elo gulf and recent form. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Myanmar’s attack, which has shown flashes of potency with 2.2 goals per game recently, manages to breach Vietnam’s defence early and disrupt the hosts’ rhythm.
Vietnam vs Myanmar: Common Questions
Who will win Vietnam vs Myanmar?
The model gives Vietnam a 71.9% probability of winning, compared to 11.4% for Myanmar and 16.7% for a draw. Vietnam are clear favourites based on Elo and expected goals.
What is the predicted score for Vietnam vs Myanmar?
The most likely scoreline is 2-0 to Vietnam, with an 11% probability. Other likely outcomes include 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (9.1%) for the hosts.
Will both teams score in Vietnam vs Myanmar?
The model estimates a 52.5% probability that both teams will score, and a 47.5% chance that at least one side keeps a clean sheet.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vietnam vs Myanmar: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 13 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.