Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Wieczysta Kraków
AI Predicted Score
2 - 2
Jagiellonia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia
Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia: Match Preview
Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia meet with both sides in need of points to arrest recent slides. Wieczysta have lost four of their last five league matches and sit 15th, just above the relegation zone, while Jagiellonia are 13th but have also dropped back-to-back league games. Both teams have negative goal differences and are conceding at a rate above 1.7 per game, with defensive frailties a recurring theme.
The statistical profile points to a match shaped by attacking intent and defensive lapses. Wieczysta average 1.45 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per league game, with a 72.7% over 2.5 rate, while Jagiellonia's away fixtures see 3.2 goals per match. Both sides have struggled to keep clean sheets (Wieczysta 9.1%, Jagiellonia 10%) and have seen both teams score in the majority of recent games. First-half goals are likely, but Wieczysta's matches open up even more after the break, with 7 second-half goals in their last five.
The model expects an open contest, with both teams' attacks more reliable than their defences. A 2-2 draw emerges as the likeliest outcome, driven by high shot volumes from Wieczysta and Jagiellonia's proven ability to score on the road. The main risk is a finishing drought, but the underlying rates for goals and BTTS are among the highest in the division.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
64%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia that most previews miss.
- 1Wieczysta Kraków's home matches average 2.75 total goals per game, with 75% seeing both teams score.
- 2Jagiellonia have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five league matches, conceding 10 goals in that span.
- 3Wieczysta's matches have produced more second-half goals than first-half goals in four of their last five outings.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have high season over 2.5 rates (Wieczysta Kraków 72.7%, Jagiellonia 60%) and combine for 2.75 goals scored and 3.61 goals conceded per game across the season, supporting a goal-heavy outcome.
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BTTS: Yes
Wieczysta Kraków have scored in all of their last five, while Jagiellonia have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and both teams average less than 11% clean sheets on the season.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Prediction
This is a meeting of two sides with leaky defences and above-average goal involvement, each struggling for consistency but rarely short of incident. Wieczysta Kraków have the league's second-highest over 2.5 goal rate (72.7%) and have failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of 11 matches, while Jagiellonia's away games average 3.2 total goals per match. Both teams are coming off back-to-back losses and sit in the bottom third, with only four points separating them and relegation pressure mounting. Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Wieczysta's home attack (1.5 goals/game, 12 shots, 3.6 on target) facing a Jagiellonia away defence conceding 1.6 per game. Conversely, Jagiellonia's away output is solid (1.6 scored, 1.6 conceded per away game), and both teams' last five matches average a combined 3.2 goals. The first half has produced 6 goals across their last 10 combined league games, but second halves are even more open (Wieczysta: 7 second-half goals in last 5; Jagiellonia: 2). Set-piece threat is moderate, with Wieczysta averaging 4.4 corners and Jagiellonia just 2.6 in their last five. Given the statistical shape, the model expects a high-scoring draw as the most likely outcome, with both attacks finding joy against error-prone back lines. The main risk is a finishing slump from either side, but the underlying rates point to both teams scoring and the total clearing 2.5.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Jagiellonia's away games average 3.2 total goals per match (8 scored, 8 conceded in 5 away).
- →Both teams have a season clean sheet rate under 11%.
Match Context
- →Wieczysta Kraków's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 8 of 11 league games (72.7%).
🚩 Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Wieczysta Kraków and 4.5 for Jagiellonia, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Wieczysta Krakówlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wieczysta Kraków enter on a two-match losing streak but have scored in every one of their last five, including a 3-0 home win over Wisla Plock. Jagiellonia have also lost their last two league games and have conceded 10 goals in their last five, but did notch a 3-1 Europa League win recently. Both sides are conceding at a rate above 1.7 per game and have failed to find defensive stability.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia
With bookmaker odds unavailable, no explicit value edges can be identified. However, the model's high probabilities for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals suggest these markets would be worth monitoring for value once prices are posted. The 1X2 market appears well balanced, with no clear edge in either direction.
Odds from William Hill. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia
- ⚠️No head-to-head data available for these teams at this level.
- ⚠️Both sides have shown recent volatility in performance, increasing scoreline variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Wieczysta Kraków 2–2 JagielloniaA 2-2 draw is the model's call, underpinned by both teams' high over 2.5 rates and poor clean sheet records. The strongest data point is Wieczysta's 72.7% over 2.5 rate across the season, with matches routinely open at both ends. The main way this goes wrong is if either side's attack misfires, but the underlying shot and concession rates favour a goal-heavy, even contest.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia: Common Questions
Who will win Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia?
The model gives both Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia a 34% win probability, with a 32% chance of a draw. Both teams have struggled for consistency and are conceding at high rates, making a draw or narrow win for either side the most likely outcomes.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia?
There is a 65% probability of both teams scoring, supported by the fact that Wieczysta have scored in all of their last five and Jagiellonia have kept just one clean sheet all season.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64%, with both teams averaging more than 1.7 goals conceded per game and Wieczysta seeing 8 of 11 league matches go over 2.5.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.