York vs Northampton Predictions
FA Cup · England
York
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Northampton
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Recommended Bets: York vs Northampton
York vs Northampton: Match Preview
York enter this FA Cup clash having drawn three of their last five matches, including a 1-1 at home to Northampton in early October, and have shown a tendency to keep games tight with an average of 1.2 goals scored and conceded per game in that span. Northampton, meanwhile, come in off a 2-0 win over Colchester and boast a slightly stronger defensive record, conceding just 0.8 goals per game over their last five and keeping two clean sheets. With both teams lacking a decisive edge and no recent league table data to separate them, the tie appears finely poised.
Tactically, York's 54.8% average possession and 12.2 shots per game suggest a side comfortable on the ball but not especially incisive, while Northampton's lower possession (43.4%) is offset by a higher corners rate (6.4 per match) and more fouls, indicating a more direct, physical approach. Both teams have been disciplined, but York's two red cards in their last five hint at a potential vulnerability under pressure. The goal environment is moderate: four of York's last five have seen both teams score, but only two of Northampton's have.
Given the statistical symmetry and recent H2H draw, the model expects a cagey contest with few clear chances and a high probability of a draw. The most likely scenario is another 1-1, with both sides able to create but not sustain attacking pressure. A single set piece or defensive lapse could decide it, but the underlying rates point to parity.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
York vs Northampton Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind York vs Northampton that most previews miss.
- 1York have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five, conceding exactly one goal in three of those matches.
- 2Northampton have averaged 6.4 corners per game across their last five, compared to York's 4.2.
- 3Four of York's last five matches have seen both teams score, while only two of Northampton's last five have.
Who do you think wins: York vs Northampton?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: York vs Northampton(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average 1.2 goals scored per game over their last five, and four of York's last five have seen both teams score. The recent H2H finished 1-1 at this ground, and neither side's attack or defence stands out statistically.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
The under 2.5 probability is 0.56, with both teams showing moderate attacking output and Northampton conceding just 0.8 goals per game in their last five. Only two of the last five for Northampton have seen both teams score.
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The Case For This York vs Northampton Prediction
Statistically, this FA Cup tie is shaped by two teams with near-identical recent scoring and concession rates, both averaging 1.2 goals scored per game across their last five. York have drawn three of their last five, including a 1-1 at home to Northampton just four weeks ago, while Northampton arrive with a marginally better defensive record and two clean sheets in the same span. The H2H record is perfectly balanced, with three wins each and three draws from the last nine meetings. The underlying numbers point to a low-to-moderate goal environment. York's last five matches average 2.4 total goals, Northampton's 2.0, and both sides' shot volumes hover around 12-14 per game. York's possession edge (54.8%) contrasts with Northampton's more direct style (43.4% possession, but more corners and fouls per game). Both teams are disciplined, averaging under two yellow cards each per match, but York have seen two red cards in their last five, hinting at some risk under pressure. The model expects a tight, attritional contest with few clear chances, a high probability of a draw, and a slight lean to both teams finding the net. The likeliest outcome is a repeat of their recent 1-1, with neither side able to sustain attacking pressure long enough to pull clear. Margins are slim, and a single set piece or defensive lapse could tip it either way.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average 1.2 goals scored per game over their last five matches.
Defence
- →Northampton have conceded just 0.8 goals per game in their last five, keeping two clean sheets.
Match Context
- →York have drawn three of their last five, including a 1-1 against Northampton at home.
🚩 York vs Northampton Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for York and 5.2 for Northampton, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How York and Northampton Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
York vs Northampton Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Yorklast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Northamptonlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
York's recent form is steady but unspectacular, with three consecutive draws before a loss at Barnet and a single win over Port Vale. They have not failed to score in any of their last five, but have only kept one clean sheet. Northampton's form is slightly more robust, with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five, including a 2-0 away win at Grimsby and a home shutout against Colchester.
York vs Northampton — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: York vs Northampton
The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced: three wins each and three draws in their last nine encounters. Their most recent meeting, at this venue just weeks ago, finished 1-1, and draws have been a recurring result in this fixture. No side has managed to establish dominance in recent years.
York vs Northampton Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
3
York wins
3
Draws
3
Northampton wins
Things to Watch: York vs Northampton
- ⚠️No season-long league data or standings available, limiting context on overall team strength.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges and expected values cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent H2H is limited to a single meeting in the last decade, so long-term trends are weak.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
York 1–1 NorthamptonA 1-1 draw is the model's top projection, driven by both teams' matching 1.2 goals scored per game and the statistical deadlock in their recent head-to-head. The most plausible way this forecast fails is if Northampton's slightly superior defensive record (0.8 goals conceded per game, two clean sheets in five) translates into a narrow away win.
York vs Northampton: Common Questions
Who will win York vs Northampton?
The model rates this as an extremely close contest, with probabilities of 29% for a York win, 36% for a draw, and 35% for a Northampton win. The most likely outcome is a draw, reflecting both sides' recent results and balanced scoring rates.
Will both teams score in York vs Northampton?
There's a 54% probability that both teams will score, based on York's four BTTS matches in their last five and both sides averaging 1.2 goals scored per game recently.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for York vs Northampton?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 56% probability, with both teams showing moderate attacking output and Northampton conceding just 0.8 goals per game in their last five. This suggests a low-to-moderate goal environment.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for York vs Northampton: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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