Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu Predictions
Super League · China
Yunnan Yukun
Full Time
4 - 3
AI predicted 2 - 1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
8.6/10Yunnan Yukun Edge Seven-Goal Thriller Against Sichuan Jiuniu in Dramatic Finish
Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu delivered a Super League spectacle at the Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, with the hosts narrowly prevailing 4-3 in a pulsating encounter. Both sides exchanged blows in a match packed with attacking intent and late drama, as Yunnan Yukun clinched victory with a decisive goal in stoppage time. Sichuan Jiuniu struck first in the 16th minute, but Yunnan Yukun responded with two goals before halftime to take the lead. The second half saw the hosts extend their advantage, only for Sichuan Jiuniu to mount a spirited late comeback with two goals in the dying moments. Ultimately, Yunnan Yukun's resilience and attacking edge proved just enough to secure all three points in front of their home fans.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
4 - 3
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
16' — Goal
Wesley Moraes puts Sichuan Jiuniu ahead with an early strike.
23' — Goal
Yunnan Yukun equalize, shifting momentum back to the hosts.
37' — Goal
Yunnan Yukun take the lead, capitalizing on their attacking dominance.
56' — Goal
Yunnan Yukun extend their advantage, seemingly taking control.
90' — Goal
Sichuan Jiuniu pull one back, setting up a tense finale.
90' — Goal
Yunnan Yukun respond instantly with a fourth goal to restore their lead.
90' — Goal
Sichuan Jiuniu score again in stoppage time, but it's too late to salvage a point.
Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun showcased attacking verve throughout, registering 13 shots with 5 on target and controlling 54% of possession. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed for fluid transitions and width, leading to four well-crafted goals at crucial junctures. Despite conceding three times, including two late on, their offensive output and ability to respond under pressure were decisive. Defensively, however, lapses in concentration, particularly in the closing stages, nearly cost them the win. Three yellow cards also highlighted a combative approach that at times bordered on reckless.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu displayed commendable fighting spirit, opening the scoring and refusing to capitulate even after falling behind. Their 4-1-4-1 setup provided midfield solidity and allowed them to create danger on the break, as evidenced by their 9 shots (5 on target) and five corners. The late double in the 90th minute showcased their never-say-die attitude, but ultimately, their defensive frailties were exposed by Yunnan's incisive attacks. Despite trailing in possession, Sichuan remained competitive throughout, keeping the contest alive until the final whistle. Their discipline was better than the hosts, conceding only one yellow card.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Yunnan Yukun's 4-3-3 formation prioritized attacking width and quick transitions, with their front three stretching Sichuan Jiuniu's back line and creating space for midfield runners. The hosts' ability to overload the flanks and switch play was instrumental in breaking down the opposition, while their midfield trio provided balance between attack and defense. Sichuan Jiuniu, operating in a 4-1-4-1, sought to congest the midfield and hit on the break. Their lone forward, Wesley Moraes, was supported by a dynamic midfield, but the system left them exposed on the wings, particularly as Yunnan pushed numbers forward. Substitutions and tactical tweaks in the second half injected urgency, culminating in their late surge, but ultimately the defensive structure could not withstand Yunnan's relentless pressure.
Turning Point
Yunnan Yukun's immediate response to Sichuan Jiuniu's 90th-minute goal, scoring their own in stoppage time to secure victory.
Man of the Match
Oscar Taty Maritu
Scored a vital goal and consistently threatened Sichuan's defense, playing a decisive role in Yunnan's attacking success.
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu: Match Preview
Yunnan Yukun enter this fixture sitting fourth, boasting the league's most goal-laden matches (36 scored, 35 conceded in 19 games) and a recent run of five straight games where both teams have scored. Their home record (4W, 2D, 3L) is solid but not dominant, and their last outing was a 2-2 draw with Shanghai SIPG. Sichuan Jiuniu, in 10th, have struggled badly on the road (1W, 1D, 7L), scoring just five away goals all season, though their recent 3-0 home win over Qingdao Youth Island hints at some attacking potential.
Statistically, this is a clash of Yunnan's prolific but leaky attack against a Sichuan side that rarely keeps opponents out on their travels (18 conceded in 9 away). Yunnan average 2.0 goals per home game and allow 1.67, while Sichuan's away defence is breached two times per match. Both teams' recent matches have been high on corners (Yunnan 6.4, Sichuan 4.2 per game) and cards, with Sichuan picking up 1.8 yellows per game in their last five.
The model expects a high-scoring contest, with Yunnan's attack likely to exploit Sichuan's away vulnerabilities. The likeliest outcome is a narrow home win with both teams scoring, but defensive inconsistency on both sides means a 2-2 draw or even a late goal-fest cannot be ruled out.
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Expected goals · model says 1.95
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu that most previews miss.
- 1Yunnan Yukun's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 16 of 19 league games (84%).
- 2Sichuan Jiuniu's away attack is the league's third-worst at just 0.56 goals per game.
- 3All three previous H2H meetings have produced at least four goals, averaging 5.0 per match.
Who do you think wins: Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Yunnan Yukun's matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 84% of league games, and both sides average over 3.5 total goals per game across the season, supporting a high-goal environment.
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The Case For This Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction
Yunnan Yukun's season has been defined by high-scoring, open games, with their 19 league fixtures averaging 3.7 goals. They have scored in every one of their last five, but defensive frailties remain, as shown by a clean sheet rate below 16%. Sichuan Jiuniu have struggled away, posting just one win and five goals in nine road matches, but retain a puncher's chance given Yunnan's defensive volatility. The statistical matchup points to a goal-rich contest. Yunnan Yukun average 2.0 goals at home but concede 1.67, while Sichuan Jiuniu's away attack is blunt (0.56 goals per game) yet their defence is breached two times per away outing. Both teams' last five matches combine for an average of 4.2 goals, and Yunnan's last five have all featured both teams scoring. Corners should be plentiful: Yunnan average 6.4 and Sichuan 4.2 per match recently. The model expects Yunnan's superior attack and home advantage to edge a contest where neither side can be trusted to keep a clean sheet. The likeliest path is a 2-1 or 3-1 home win, but the defensive numbers on both sides leave the door open for a high-scoring draw if Yunnan's back line falters again.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams have a clean sheet rate below 16%, indicating high BTTS potential.
Match Context
- →Yunnan Yukun's season over 2.5 goals rate is 84%, highest in the league.
- →Sichuan Jiuniu have scored just 5 goals in 9 away games (0.56 per game).
🚩 Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Yunnan Yukun and 5.2 for Sichuan Jiuniu, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Yunnan Yukunlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Sichuan Jiuniulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Yunnan Yukun are trending towards high-scoring, open games, with a last five record of DLWLW and 13 goals scored in that span. Sichuan Jiuniu have alternated wins and losses (LWLLW), but their away form remains a major weakness, with just one win and five goals in nine trips.
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 85% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 19 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Yunnan Yukun have won all three previous encounters, including a 4-3 thriller away earlier this season. Every H2H has featured at least four goals, with both teams scoring each time, suggesting a historically open matchup.
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
4
Yunnan Yukun wins
0
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu
With no bookmaker odds available, value assessment is not possible for this fixture. However, the model's high probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score would typically flag those markets for value if odds were competitive.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Small sample size in head-to-head (3 matches) limits reliability.
- ⚠️Recent lineups and injuries are not available for this fixture.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Yunnan Yukun 2–1 Sichuan JiuniuThe data points to a 2-1 win for Yunnan Yukun, driven by their league-high over 2.5 goals rate and Sichuan's poor away scoring record. The main risk lies in Yunnan's unreliable defence—if they concede early, this could open up into another goal-fest as seen in previous meetings.
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu: Common Questions
Who will win Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 47% chance of victory, with a 29% probability for a draw and 24% for a Sichuan Jiuniu win. Yunnan's strong home attack and Sichuan's away struggles tilt the edge to the hosts.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
There's a 63% probability that both teams will score, supported by Yunnan's record of five straight BTTS games and both sides' low clean sheet rates (below 16%).
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 68%, reflecting Yunnan Yukun's league-leading 84% over 2.5 rate and a combined season average of 3.2 goals per game between the teams.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.