Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Zulte Waregem
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Charleroi
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.7(+5% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Charleroi Edge Zulte Waregem in Tight Contest at Elindus Arena
Charleroi claimed a hard-fought 1-0 away victory over Zulte Waregem at the Elindus Arena in a match defined by fine margins and disciplined defending. The visitors struck the decisive blow in the 29th minute, capitalizing on a balanced first half where both sides struggled to carve out clear-cut chances. Despite Zulte Waregem's late pressure and a flurry of corners, Charleroi's defensive resilience and superior shot accuracy proved decisive. Both teams finished with 15 shots apiece, but Charleroi's efficiency in front of goal—registering five shots on target to the hosts' two—ultimately made the difference. Zulte Waregem enjoyed spells of pressure and forced nine corners, yet were unable to break down a well-organized Charleroi side, who managed the game well despite picking up three yellow cards.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
29' — Goal
A. Scheidler scores for Charleroi, finishing off a well-worked move to give the visitors the lead.
45' — Yellow Card
Charleroi's first booking as the visitors commit a tactical foul to halt a Zulte Waregem break.
67' — Yellow Card
Charleroi pick up their second yellow as the game grows increasingly physical.
72' — Yellow Card
Third yellow for Charleroi, reflecting their combative approach to protecting the lead.
80' — Corner
Zulte Waregem win their ninth corner, intensifying their late search for an equalizer.
Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem matched Charleroi for much of the contest, showing attacking intent with 15 shots and dominating in set-piece situations with nine corners. However, their lack of cutting edge in the final third was evident as they managed just two shots on target. The midfield trio worked hard to control possession, but the forwards struggled to convert opportunities into genuine threats. Despite a late push and sustained pressure in the closing stages, Zulte Waregem could not find an equalizer. Defensively, they were largely solid, conceding only once, but the inability to capitalize on their attacking moments cost them dearly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Charleroi
Charleroi delivered a disciplined away performance, edging possession (52%) and making their chances count with five shots on target. The visitors took the lead in the 29th minute and managed the game intelligently thereafter, absorbing pressure and maintaining defensive solidity. Their midfield pairing provided a strong screen in front of the back four, while the attacking trio supported lone striker A. Scheidler effectively. While Charleroi picked up three yellow cards in a physical encounter, their tactical discipline and ability to limit Zulte Waregem's clear chances were key. The team showed maturity in game management, especially after taking the lead.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Zulte Waregem lined up in a 4-3-2-1 formation, seeking midfield stability and width from their full-backs. Their approach focused on building through the center and exploiting set pieces, as evidenced by their nine corners. However, the lack of incisive movement in the final third limited their threat, and Charleroi's compact defensive shape frustrated the hosts. Charleroi's 4-2-3-1 provided solidity in midfield, allowing them to control possession slightly and spring forward with pace when opportunities arose. The double pivot shielded the defense effectively, while the attacking trio supported Scheidler, who proved decisive. After taking the lead, Charleroi adopted a more conservative stance, absorbing pressure and relying on quick transitions.
Turning Point
A. Scheidler's 29th-minute goal gave Charleroi the lead and allowed them to dictate the tempo for the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
A. Scheidler
Scored the match-winning goal and led the line with physicality and composure.
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi: Match Preview
With both sides in the top five and separated by a single point, Zulte Waregem and Charleroi meet in Waregem with early-season momentum on the line. Zulte Waregem are unbeaten (WDWDW), boasting three clean sheets in five and a perfect home record, while Charleroi have started with four wins from five and the league's fourth-best attack. The market can't split them, offering 2.5 on either side, but the underlying numbers suggest Charleroi's sharper attack might just have the edge.
Tactically, the matchup pits Zulte Waregem's disciplined, low-possession approach (averaging just 40.8% possession and 13 shots per game) against Charleroi's high-volume, high-possession style (19.4 shots, 56.6% possession). Charleroi's ability to create chances—five or more shots on target in every match—contrasts with Zulte Waregem's tendency to keep things tight early and open up after the break (seven of their last ten goals scored in the second half). Both teams have seen 60% of their matches go over 2.5 goals, and both average over 4.5 corners per game, so set-piece opportunities could be a factor.
The model expects a cautious first half, with Charleroi's attacking depth and away form likely to make the difference as the match progresses. Zulte Waregem's home defence is a strength, but Charleroi's ability to sustain pressure and find goals in multiple phases should see them edge a high-quality, closely contested fixture. Over 2.5 goals stands out as the value angle, with both sides' attacking trends and the market's slight underpricing aligning.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi
The market's dead-even pricing (2.5 for both teams) matches the model's assessment of a close contest, but the best value emerges in the over 2.5 goals market. With both teams averaging over 2 goals per game and 60% of their matches clearing that line, the model's 62% probability gives a slender edge over the market's implied 59%. No major edge is found in the 1x2 or BTTS markets at current prices.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.7
Both sides have averaged over 2 goals per game and 60% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season, while the model's probability (0.62) edges the market's implied probability (0.59) at current odds.
Read more ↓
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi that most previews miss.
- 1Charleroi have won both away matches this season, conceding just once and scoring twice in each.
- 2Zulte Waregem's last five matches have averaged just 0.6 goals conceded per game, but they've only scored three first-half goals in that span.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have seen both teams score or finish with a one-goal margin or less.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Prediction
The market rates this a true toss-up, with both Zulte Waregem and Charleroi priced at 2.5 to win. The data, however, hints at a slight edge for Charleroi, whose attacking metrics and perfect away record nudge them ahead. Zulte Waregem's defensive solidity at home—just one goal conceded in two matches—keeps things tight, but their attack has sometimes lacked early punch. Charleroi arrive with four wins from five and a robust 2.2 goals per game, but their last outing exposed some defensive vulnerability in a 2-3 home defeat. Zulte Waregem's recent matches have been cagey early, with only three first-half goals in their last five, but the second half often opens up. Both sides are disciplined (under 1.5 yellow cards per game), so set-piece and booking markets look unremarkable, but corners could feature with both averaging over 4.5 per match. The model expects Charleroi's more dynamic attack and their ability to control possession (56.6% average) to eventually tell, especially after the break. Zulte Waregem's resilience means this could stay level at half-time, but Charleroi's extra firepower and sharpness on the road tip the balance for a narrow away win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average at least 2 goals per game and have seen 60% of their matches go over 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Charleroi's away record is perfect so far (2 wins, 4 goals scored, 1 conceded).
- →Zulte Waregem have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 but have only scored 3 first-half goals in that span.
🚩 Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Zulte Waregem and 6.4 for Charleroi, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How Zulte Waregem and Charleroi Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Zulte Waregemlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Charleroilast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Zulte Waregem are unbeaten in their opening five, with three wins and two draws, and have kept three clean sheets in that span. Charleroi, meanwhile, have won four out of five, including both away fixtures, and are averaging 2.2 goals per game. Both sides arrive in strong form, but Charleroi's attack has been more prolific and consistent.
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 19 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
What History Says: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi
The last ten head-to-head meetings are almost perfectly balanced, with Charleroi edging it 4-3 in wins and three draws. Recent encounters have tended to be close, with only one of the last five settled by more than one goal, and both teams have managed away wins in the past three league meetings.
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Zulte Waregem wins
3
Draws
4
Charleroi wins
Things to Watch: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi
- ⚠️Market odds are near-identical for both sides, reflecting genuine uncertainty.
- ⚠️Zulte Waregem's defensive numbers at home are strong but based on a small sample (2 matches).
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but early-season volatility and small sample sizes increase model risk.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Zulte Waregem 1–2 CharleroiCharleroi's superior attacking metrics and perfect away record (2 wins, 4 goals for, 1 against) tip the balance for a 2-1 away win, despite the market's dead-even pricing. The strongest data point is Charleroi's 2.2 goals per game and 19.4 shots per match, which should eventually break down Zulte Waregem's solid but low-possession defence. The main risk is Zulte Waregem's resilience at home—just one goal conceded in two matches—keeping this tighter than expected or holding out for a draw.
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi: Common Questions
Who will win Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
The model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of victory, Zulte Waregem 29%, and the draw 31%. Charleroi's sharper attack and perfect away record give them a slight edge, but the market sees this as a true toss-up.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
There's a 63% model probability for both teams to score, supported by both sides averaging at least 2 goals per game and 60% of their matches going over 2.5 goals.
Is there value in betting over 2.5 goals in this match?
Yes, the model estimates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, slightly higher than the market's implied probability at current odds (1.7), making it the standout value angle.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.