Almeria vs Cadiz Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Almeria
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Cadiz
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Almeria vs Cadiz: Match Preview
Almeria return home after back-to-back away defeats, having started the Segunda División campaign with a convincing 3-0 win over Eldense but failing to score in either subsequent match. They sit mid-table with three points from three games, while Cadiz, still searching for a first win, have opened with two draws and find themselves just above the relegation line. Neither side has found attacking fluency, and both will see this as a chance to stabilise early-season form.
From a statistical perspective, the matchup is defined by symmetry. Almeria average 1.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game, while Cadiz are at 1.0 for both metrics. The hosts' only clean sheet came at home, and their shot volume (6.8 per game) is modest. Cadiz, meanwhile, have managed just 1.8 shots on target per match in their last five, and their away record in the league is a single 2-2 draw. Both teams are more secure than spectacular, and neither has shown a consistent set-piece threat, with corners and fouls both below league averages.
Given these rates and the recent H2H trend toward draws, the model expects a low-scoring, closely contested match. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 68%, and the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting both sides' early-season conservatism and the lack of a clear attacking edge. A single goal either way could swing it, but the underlying numbers point to parity.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Almeria vs Cadiz Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Almeria vs Cadiz that most previews miss.
- 1Almeria's only league clean sheet came at home in a 3-0 win; away from home, they've failed to score and lost both matches.
- 2Cadiz have drawn both league games this season, with the away fixture (2-2) the only one to feature more than two goals.
- 3Four of the last seven league H2H meetings have ended in draws, three of them 1-1.
Who do you think wins: Almeria vs Cadiz?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Almeria vs Cadiz(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average exactly 1 goal scored per game in league play, and the draw has landed in 4 of the last 10 H2H meetings, with 1-1 appearing three times in that span. Defensive metrics for both are solid enough to keep this tight.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Combined season over 2.5 rate is just 41.7% (Almeria 33%, Cadiz 50%), and both sides are conceding at or below 1 goal per game. The model projects a 68% chance of under 2.5 goals.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Almeria vs Cadiz Prediction
Statistically, this is a low-goal environment between two sides whose attacking output and defensive records are almost perfectly matched through the opening weeks. Home advantage is offset by Almeria's blunt attack in recent outings, while Cadiz's away resilience keeps this on a knife-edge. The most likely scenario is a cagey contest decided by fine margins, with a draw the modal outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head meetings have produced four draws in the last seven league encounters, with three ending 1-1.
Defence
- →Cadiz have drawn both league games so far, with a 0-0 at home and a 2-2 away, conceding exactly one goal per match on average.
Match Context
- →Almeria have scored just once in their last two league matches, both defeats away from home.
🚩 Almeria vs Cadiz Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Almeria and 4.8 for Cadiz, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 43%.
How Almeria and Cadiz Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Almeria vs Cadiz Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Almerialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cadizlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Almeria's form is mixed, with a strong 3-0 home win to open the league followed by two 1-0 away defeats in which they failed to score. Cadiz are unbeaten in league play but have yet to win, drawing 0-0 at home and 2-2 away. Both sides are defensively sound but have lacked attacking punch in the opening weeks.
Almeria vs Cadiz — Last 3 Matches
What History Says: Almeria vs Cadiz
Recent meetings between Almeria and Cadiz have been closely contested, with four draws in the last seven league encounters and three finishing 1-1. Almeria have had the better of home fixtures, including a 3-0 win last season, but the overall trend is towards low-scoring parity.
Almeria vs Cadiz Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Almeria wins
4
Draws
2
Cadiz wins
Things to Watch: Almeria vs Cadiz
- ⚠️Limited league sample size (3 games for Almeria, 2 for Cadiz) reduces confidence in season averages.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies may distort last 5 averages, as competitive intensity differs.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Almeria 1–1 CadizThe model forecasts a 1-1 draw, underpinned by both teams' identical scoring rates (1.0 per game) and a recent history of stalemates in this fixture. The strongest data point is the recurring 1-1 scoreline in their head-to-heads. The main risk is that one side capitalises on an early goal to force the other out of their cautious approach, opening the game up for a higher score.
Almeria vs Cadiz: Common Questions
Who will win Almeria vs Cadiz?
The model gives Almeria a 39% chance of victory, Cadiz 24%, and the draw 37%. Both teams have averaged exactly 1 goal scored per game in league play, and recent H2H meetings have often ended level.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Almeria vs Cadiz?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 68% probability, with both teams averaging 1 goal scored and conceding per game, and a combined over 2.5 rate of just 41.7% this season.
How often do Almeria and Cadiz draw when they meet?
Four of the last seven league meetings between Almeria and Cadiz have ended in draws, with three finishing 1-1. The model rates the draw at 37% for this fixture.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Almeria vs Cadiz: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.