Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès Predictions
Botola Pro · Morocco
Amal Tiznit
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
CODM Meknès
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: CODM Meknès Win
Recommended Bets: Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès
Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès: Match Preview
Amal Tiznit enter this contest sitting 11th after four rounds, still searching for their first home point and with a negative goal difference of -4. Their last five matches show a pattern of defensive instability, highlighted by a 2-5 home defeat and just one clean sheet. CODM Meknès, meanwhile, are second in the table, having collected 7 points from 4 games and boasting the league’s most potent away attack to date.
The matchup is defined by contrasting home and away splits: Amal Tiznit have conceded 4 goals per home game, while CODM Meknès have scored 3 per away outing and allowed just one goal per away fixture. The visitors’ defensive solidity is further underlined by three clean sheets in their last five, while Amal Tiznit have failed to keep opponents out in four of their last five. The goal environment is likely to be moderate, with the model rating under 2.5 goals as a slight favourite, despite the home side’s defensive woes.
The statistical distribution points to CODM Meknès controlling the tempo, with a high probability of scoring first and a strong chance of taking all three points. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 to the visitors, driven by their superior away scoring rate and the hosts’ inability to keep games tight at home. However, small sample sizes and the lack of direct H2H data inject a degree of uncertainty into the projection.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès that most previews miss.
- 1Amal Tiznit have conceded 8 goals in just 2 home matches, the worst home defensive record in the league.
- 2CODM Meknès have scored 6 goals in their 2 away league games, averaging 3.0 per match on the road.
- 3Only 1 of CODM Meknès’ 4 league games has gone over 2.5 goals, despite their strong attacking output away.
Who do you think wins: Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: CODM Meknès Win
CODM Meknès have averaged 1.75 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded per game this season, while Amal Tiznit have lost both home matches, conceding 8 in 2. The away side’s defensive record and away scoring rate (6 goals in 2 away games) point to a strong probability edge, though odds are unavailable to confirm value.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Despite Amal Tiznit’s leaky home defence, CODM Meknès matches have gone over 2.5 goals just 25% of the time this season and their defence has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5. Model rates under 2.5 as a slight favourite at 53%.
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The Case For This Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès Prediction
This fixture sets up as a clash between one of the league’s weakest home defences and a visiting side with the strongest away attack in the division so far. Amal Tiznit have yet to take a point at home, conceding 8 goals in just two matches, while CODM Meknès have scored 6 in their first two away and conceded only twice on their travels. The statistical shape points to the away side’s efficiency at both ends against a home team struggling to keep games tight.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Amal Tiznit have conceded 8 goals in 2 home matches this season.
- →CODM Meknès have scored 6 goals in 2 away games and conceded just 2.
- →The away side has kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
🚩 Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Amal Tiznit and 3.8 for CODM Meknès, for an expected total of 8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 41% · Over 10.5: 18%.
How Amal Tiznit and CODM Meknès Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Amal Tiznitlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CODM Meknèslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Amal Tiznit’s recent form is patchy, with a DLWLD sequence and two heavy home defeats (1-3, 2-5) underpinning a -4 goal difference. In contrast, CODM Meknès have won two of their last three, including a 6-2 away victory, and have kept three clean sheets in their last five, signalling a more stable trajectory.
Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Things to Watch: Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available for these teams, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are unavailable, so value edges cannot be confirmed.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes (4 matches per team) limit confidence in rate stability.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Amal Tiznit 1–2 CODM MeknèsThe model projects a 2-1 away win for CODM Meknès, anchored by their 3.0 goals per away game and the hosts’ defensive collapse at home. The single strongest data point is Amal Tiznit’s 8 goals conceded in two home fixtures. The main risk to this prediction is the limited sample size and potential volatility early in the season, especially with no direct head-to-head context.
Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès: Common Questions
Who will win Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès?
The model gives CODM Meknès a 48% chance of winning, compared to 23% for Amal Tiznit and 29% for the draw. This is based on the away side’s superior goal difference (+4), their 3.0 goals per away game, and Amal Tiznit’s winless home record.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès?
Under 2.5 goals is rated slightly more likely at 53%, with over 2.5 at 47%. CODM Meknès matches have only gone over 2.5 goals 25% of the time this season, while Amal Tiznit’s defensive record at home makes a higher scoreline plausible.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 46%, with 'no' the favourite at 54%. CODM Meknès have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5, while Amal Tiznit have scored in all their last 5, so the market is finely balanced.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 20 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.