Cadiz vs Las Palmas Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Cadiz
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Las Palmas
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Las Palmas Win
@ 2.7(+5% edge)
Match Result
6.7/10Las Palmas Edge Cadiz in Tight Contest Thanks to Fuster’s Second-Half Strike
Las Palmas claimed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Cadiz at the JP Financial Estadio, with Manu Fuster’s 60th-minute goal proving decisive in a match where the visitors’ attacking intent ultimately paid off. Despite Cadiz enjoying a slight edge in possession (54%), they struggled to create clear chances, registering just two shots on target compared to Las Palmas’ five. The home side’s frustration was evident as they picked up four yellow cards, while Las Palmas kept their discipline and composure. The match was a tale of contrasting approaches: Cadiz looked to control the tempo but lacked penetration, while Las Palmas, set up in a classic 4-4-2, were more direct and dangerous, firing 20 shots and earning nine corners. Fuster’s breakthrough just after the hour mark shifted momentum firmly in the visitors’ favour, and despite late pressure from Cadiz, Las Palmas’ defence held firm to secure all three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
60' — Goal
Manu Fuster breaks the deadlock with a well-taken finish, putting Las Palmas ahead.
68' — Yellow Card
Borja Vazquez is booked as Cadiz show signs of frustration.
74' — Yellow Card
Javi Ontiveros receives a yellow card for a late challenge.
80' — Corner
Cadiz win a series of corners but fail to convert their pressure into a goal.
90+2' — Yellow Card
Cristian Gutiérrez is booked in stoppage time as Cadiz push desperately for an equalizer.
Cadiz
Cadiz started brightly, dictating play with 54% possession and a patient build-up from their 4-2-3-1 formation. However, their attacking efforts fizzled out in the final third, with only two shots on target from seven attempts. The midfield trio of Damián Rodríguez, Borja Vazquez, and Urko Izeta worked hard to retain the ball but struggled to break down a well-organized Las Palmas back line. As the match wore on and frustration mounted, Cadiz resorted to riskier play, resulting in four yellow cards and a lack of composure in key moments. Despite a late push, including seven corners, Cadiz failed to seriously test José Caro in the Las Palmas goal. Their inability to convert possession into genuine chances ultimately cost them, and the home crowd left disappointed after a toothless attacking display.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Las Palmas
Las Palmas approached the match with a clear attacking intent, setting up in a 4-4-2 and pressing Cadiz high up the pitch. Their willingness to commit numbers forward was reflected in their 20 total shots and nine corners, putting the Cadiz defence under sustained pressure. The midfield duo of E. Loiodice and Iñaki González Zambrano provided energy and control, while the front pairing of Jesé and Manu Fuster constantly threatened. Fuster’s 60th-minute goal was just reward for Las Palmas’ enterprise, and after taking the lead, they managed the game well, absorbing Cadiz’s late pressure with composure. Their disciplined performance was underlined by a clean disciplinary record, and they deservedly left Cadiz with all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Cadiz lined up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on ball retention and structured buildup through midfield. However, their lack of width and penetration allowed Las Palmas to defend compactly, forcing Cadiz into speculative efforts. The home side’s seven corners reflected their territorial play, but they rarely threatened from set pieces. Las Palmas’ 4-4-2 offered greater attacking balance, with wide midfielders supporting the front two and fullbacks overlapping when possible. Their pressing forced Cadiz into errors, and their direct approach yielded 20 shots. After taking the lead, Las Palmas dropped deeper, switching to a more conservative shape that absorbed Cadiz’s late attacks and protected their narrow advantage.
Turning Point
Manu Fuster’s goal in the 60th minute, which shifted the momentum and forced Cadiz to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Manu Fuster
Scored the match-winning goal and led the line with energy and intelligence throughout.
Cadiz vs Las Palmas: Match Preview
Cadiz come into this fixture still hunting for their first league win of the season, having drawn three of their opening four matches and fallen to a 3-2 defeat at Almeria last time out. Their form string of 'LDDDL' underlines a side struggling to convert possession and territory into points, with just one goal scored at home so far and a solitary clean sheet from their last five. Las Palmas, meanwhile, have started the campaign with real momentum: two wins, a draw and a single defeat sees them sitting comfortably in the top half, and their attack has looked sharp, netting six times in four league outings.
The tactical matchup pits a Cadiz side averaging 8 shots and 2.4 on target per game (last five) against a Las Palmas defence that has been solid at home but porous on the road, conceding five in two away league games. Las Palmas themselves have been efficient up front, with 1.8 goals per game and a spread of scorers—T. Miyashiro and M. Fuster have both chipped in regularly. Set-piece threat is moderate from both, but Cadiz's higher fouls and cards count (2.6 yellows per game) could hand Las Palmas dangerous dead-ball opportunities. First-half goals are likely: Las Palmas have scored four before the break in their last five, while Cadiz have conceded early in several matches.
Given the recent form trajectories, the model expects Las Palmas's momentum and attacking edge to tip a close contest in their favour. Cadiz's inability to keep clean sheets or build leads at home, combined with Las Palmas's recent away scoring record, point towards a 2-1 victory for the visitors, though defensive lapses on both sides mean a high-scoring draw can't be ruled out.
How Cadiz and Las Palmas Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cadiz vs Las Palmas Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cadizlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cadiz are stuck in a rut, winless in their last five competitive matches and drawing three of their four league games so far. Their only recent defeat came away at Almeria, but their inability to convert draws into wins is a growing concern. Las Palmas, on the other hand, have gathered momentum with two wins and a draw in their last four, including a convincing 2-0 away win at AD Ceuta FC and a strong attacking output throughout August.
Cadiz vs Las Palmas — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Cadiz vs Las Palmas Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cadiz vs Las Palmas that most previews miss.
- 1Cadiz have drawn three of their first four league matches, with each of their last three home games ending level or by a single-goal margin.
- 2Las Palmas have scored in every competitive match this season and have netted at least twice in three of their last five outings.
- 3Six of the last ten meetings between these sides have seen both teams score, and Las Palmas have scored first in four of the last five.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Cadiz vs Las Palmas Prediction
Las Palmas arrive in Cadiz on the back of a strong run, having won two and drawn one of their last three league fixtures, while Cadiz are still searching for their first win of the campaign after a string of draws and a recent defeat. The away side's attack has clicked early in the season, averaging 1.8 goals per game in their last five, compared to Cadiz's 1.2, and the visitors have already shown they can win at this ground, having triumphed 3-1 here in pre-season. Statistically, the matchup tilts towards Las Palmas, who have been more clinical in front of goal and more solid at the back, with two clean sheets in their last five to Cadiz's one. Cadiz have struggled to convert possession into goals at home (just one goal in two league matches at JP Financial Estadio), while Las Palmas have netted four times in two away games, albeit with a leaky defence (five conceded away). The first half could be cagey—Cadiz have managed just three first-half goals in their last five—but Las Palmas have shown a knack for early breakthroughs, scoring four first-half goals in the same period. With Cadiz's form string showing 'LDDDL' and Las Palmas trending upwards, the model expects the visitors' momentum and superior attacking output to prove decisive. The most likely scenario is Las Palmas edging a competitive contest, capitalising on Cadiz's defensive frailty and recent habit of conceding first at home, with a 2-1 away win the likeliest outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Las Palmas have scored 1.8 goals per game over their last five, compared to Cadiz's 1.2.
Defence
- →Cadiz are winless in four league matches this season and have just one clean sheet in their last five.
Match Context
- →Las Palmas have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings, including a 3-1 away win in pre-season.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cadiz vs Las Palmas(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Las Palmas Win@ 2.7
Las Palmas have won three of the last four meetings with Cadiz and arrive with clear momentum, having taken seven points from their last four league matches and scoring 1.8 goals per game in their last five. Cadiz, by contrast, are winless this season and have averaged just 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last five, with only one clean sheet. The away side's sharper attacking edge and recent dominance in this fixture suggest value at these odds.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.73
Both teams have scored in four of Cadiz's last five and three of Las Palmas's last five, with Cadiz's defence looking especially vulnerable (1.8 goals conceded per game over their last five). Las Palmas have scored in every competitive match this season, and Cadiz have only failed to find the net once in their last five.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
🚩 Cadiz vs Las Palmas Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Cadiz and 4 for Las Palmas, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
What History Says: Cadiz vs Las Palmas
Las Palmas have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning three of the last four meetings—including a 3-1 friendly win in Cadiz last month and a 2-1 league victory here in April. Both teams have scored in six of the last ten encounters, but Las Palmas have consistently found ways to edge close games, particularly away from home.
Cadiz vs Las Palmas Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Cadiz wins
3
Draws
5
Las Palmas wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cadiz vs Las Palmas
The model finds the most value on Las Palmas to win at 2.70, with a 5.3% edge over the implied odds, based on their recent form and head-to-head dominance. There's also a marginal positive expected value on both teams to score at 1.80, given the attacking trends and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. The under 2.5 market appears overvalued, with the model slightly favouring the over based on recent goal patterns.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cadiz vs Las Palmas
- ⚠️Cadiz have drawn three of their four league games, suggesting resilience even when not winning.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with Las Palmas conceding five in two away league matches.
- ⚠️Early season dynamics may be volatile, and both sides have rotated lineups and formations in recent weeks.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cadiz 1–2 Las PalmasLas Palmas's sharper recent form—seven points from their last four and 1.8 goals per game—stands in stark contrast to Cadiz's winless start and defensive frailty. The model favours a 2-1 away win, with the single strongest data point being Las Palmas's consistent scoring and recent head-to-head dominance. The main risk is Cadiz's knack for grinding out draws at home, which could frustrate the visitors if they fail to convert early chances.
Cadiz vs Las Palmas: Common Questions
Who will win Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
The model gives Las Palmas a 39% chance of victory, with Cadiz at 28% and the draw at 33%. Las Palmas's recent momentum and strong head-to-head record make them slight favourites, but Cadiz's habit of drawing means a stalemate is also likely.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
There's a 56% probability for both teams to score, with four of Cadiz's last five and three of Las Palmas's last five seeing goals at both ends. Both sides have shown attacking intent but also defensive weaknesses.
Can Cadiz end their winless run?
Cadiz have drawn three of four league matches so far and have struggled to turn possession into goals, averaging just 1.2 goals per game in their last five. The model gives them a 28% chance of winning, so while possible, their recent form suggests another tough afternoon.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cadiz vs Las Palmas: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.