Cadiz vs Oviedo Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Cadiz
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Oviedo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.1/10Oviedo Edge Cadiz in Spirited Segunda División Clash
Real Oviedo claimed a hard-fought 2-1 away victory over Cadiz at the Nuevo Mirandilla, with both sides showing flashes of quality but the visitors ultimately proving more clinical. Oviedo struck first through A. Ișfan in the 22nd minute and doubled their advantage before halftime via Estanis, capitalizing on their slight possession edge and sharper attacking transitions. Cadiz pressed hard in the second half, eventually pulling one back through Álvaro García in the 83rd minute, but despite a late surge and a flurry of corners, the hosts could not break down Oviedo's resilient defense. The match was a tense, physical affair, with nine yellow cards handed out as both teams battled for control. Cadiz created more chances overall, registering 15 shots and 8 corners, but their finishing let them down until late on. Oviedo, meanwhile, managed the game well after taking their lead, absorbing pressure and threatening on the break, ultimately holding on for a valuable three points.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
22' — Goal
A. Ișfan puts Oviedo ahead with a well-taken finish.
38' — Goal
Estanis doubles Oviedo's lead, capitalizing on Cadiz's defensive lapse.
83' — Goal
Álvaro García scores for Cadiz, giving the hosts hope of a comeback.
Various' — Yellow Cards
A total of 9 yellow cards shown as tempers flared and tactical fouls increased.
Cadiz
Cadiz showed plenty of attacking intent, especially in the second half, but were left to rue missed opportunities and a sluggish start. Despite generating 15 shots and dominating from set pieces with 8 corners, they struggled to convert their chances, only finding the net late through Álvaro García. Their 47% possession reflected a more direct approach, but the hosts were often stifled by Oviedo's organized defense and were forced into risky challenges, resulting in four yellow cards.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Oviedo
Oviedo delivered a composed away performance, making the most of their 53% possession and showing clinical edge in front of goal. Goals from A. Ișfan and Estanis in the first half put them firmly in control, and though they ceded territory after the break, their defensive organization and tactical fouling (16 fouls, 5 yellow cards) helped them weather Cadiz's late storm. Oviedo's ability to transition quickly and exploit spaces behind Cadiz's midfield proved decisive.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Cadiz lined up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to control the midfield and attack with width, but struggled to break down Oviedo's compact 4-1-4-1 shape. Oviedo's lone holding midfielder, Y. Didi, shielded the back four effectively, allowing the visitors to absorb pressure and spring forward on the counter. The first half saw Oviedo exploit gaps between Cadiz's lines, resulting in two well-worked goals. In response, Cadiz pushed their full-backs higher and committed more men forward after halftime, increasing their shot count and set-piece opportunities. However, Oviedo's disciplined defensive structure and willingness to foul disrupted Cadiz's rhythm, and tactical substitutions helped them see out the result.
Turning Point
Estanis's goal in the 38th minute gave Oviedo a crucial cushion, allowing them to focus on game management and frustrate Cadiz's comeback attempts.
Man of the Match
Estanis
Scored the decisive second goal and was instrumental in Oviedo's attacking transitions.
Cadiz vs Oviedo: Match Preview
Cadiz come into this fixture 18th in the table, but with momentum from two wins in their last three league matches and a recent 3-1 home victory. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, particularly at home where they've won just two of seven. Oviedo, meanwhile, sit 9th, eight points clear of Cadiz, and have been effective on their travels, scoring 10 and conceding 10 in six away games. Both sides are in relatively steady form, with Oviedo unbeaten in four of their last five and Cadiz showing improved output in attack.
The statistical matchup is finely balanced. Cadiz's home attack (1.29 goals/game) faces an Oviedo away defence conceding 1.67 per game, while Oviedo's away attack (1.67 goals/game) is up against a Cadiz home defence allowing 0.86 per match. Both teams have a tendency to score and concede in the second half, with Cadiz netting 8 of their last 10 after the break and Oviedo splitting their last nine goals almost evenly between halves. Set-piece threat is moderate on both sides, with corners averaging 4.4 (Cadiz) and 6.4 (Oviedo) per match over the last five, and discipline could play a part, as both teams average over 2 yellow cards per game.
Given the close alignment in scoring and concession rates, the model expects a competitive, low-to-mid scoring affair. The most likely outcome is a draw, with both teams getting on the scoresheet but neither able to establish clear superiority. The predicted scoreline is 1-1, reflecting the balance in both attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cadiz vs Oviedo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cadiz vs Oviedo that most previews miss.
- 1Cadiz have scored 8 of their last 10 goals in the second half, highlighting a late-game scoring trend.
- 2Oviedo's last five matches have averaged 3.6 cards per game for them alone, with both sides combining for over 6 bookings per match on average.
- 3Only one of the last ten head-to-head meetings has ended in a draw, but the most recent two in Cadiz finished 2-0 to the hosts.
Who do you think wins: Cadiz vs Oviedo?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cadiz vs Oviedo(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average between 1.27 and 1.36 goals per game and have drawn 4 and 3 times respectively in 11 matches; the 1-1 scoreline aligns with their scoring/conceding rates and the model's highest single probability (0.18).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams' season over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 45%, Oviedo 55%) point to a slightly low-scoring environment, and their combined goals per game sits at 2.36, making under 2.5 the statistical favourite (0.56).
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BTTS: Yes
Oviedo have scored in all of their last five and Cadiz in three of five; both average at least 1.2 goals for and against per game, with BTTS landing in 4 of Oviedo's last 5 and 2 of Cadiz's last 5.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Cadiz vs Oviedo Prediction
Cadiz, sitting 18th, have shown improvement with two wins in their last three league outings, but remain inconsistent at home (2W, 2D, 3L). Oviedo, 9th and eight points better off, have been productive away, scoring 10 in 6 road games but conceding just as many. Both teams' season scoring rates hover around 1.3 goals per game, and neither side boasts a dominant defence, with Cadiz's clean sheet rate at just 18% and Oviedo's away defence shipping 10 in 6. Statistically, the matchup is balanced: Cadiz's home attack (1.29 goals/game) faces an Oviedo away defence conceding 1.67 per game, while Oviedo's away attack (1.67 goals/game) meets a Cadiz home defence allowing 0.86. Recent form tilts marginally to Oviedo (DWWLW), but Cadiz's shot and chance creation have improved, averaging 10 shots and 3.2 on target in their last five. Both teams are prone to second-half goals, with Cadiz netting 8 of their last 10 after the break and Oviedo splitting their last 9 goals almost evenly across halves. Given the close alignment in attacking and defensive rates, the model expects a tightly contested game, with neither side likely to pull clear. The most probable outcome is a low-to-mid scoring draw, with both teams finding the net but neither able to assert sustained control.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average over 10 shots per game, but Cadiz's shot accuracy (3.2 on target) lags Oviedo's (6.8 on target) over the last five.
Match Context
- →Cadiz's home record is 2W, 2D, 3L with a +3 goal difference (9 for, 6 against).
- →Oviedo have scored in every away game, averaging 1.67 goals for and 1.67 against per away match.
🚩 Cadiz vs Oviedo Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Cadiz and 4.7 for Oviedo, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Cadiz and Oviedo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cadiz vs Oviedo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cadizlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Oviedolast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cadiz have begun to reverse a poor start, winning two of their last three league matches and averaging 2 goals per game over their last five. Oviedo, meanwhile, are on a positive trajectory, unbeaten in four of their last five and scoring at least once in each. Both sides show improved attacking output, but neither has established consistent defensive solidity.
Cadiz vs Oviedo — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Cadiz vs Oviedo
The head-to-head record is narrowly in Oviedo's favour, with five wins to Cadiz's four in the last ten meetings and just one draw. Notably, Cadiz have won the last two home encounters 2-0, but most matches have produced a winner rather than a stalemate. This historical trend contrasts with the statistical deadlock suggested by current season rates.
Cadiz vs Oviedo Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Cadiz wins
1
Draws
5
Oviedo wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cadiz vs Oviedo
With no bookmaker odds available, value analysis is limited. However, the model's probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals are marginally more likely than a typical market might price, given the close alignment in both teams' scoring and concession rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cadiz vs Oviedo
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Lineups are unknown; late changes could affect attacking or defensive balance.
- ⚠️Recent improvements in Cadiz's attack may not be fully reflected in season-long averages.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cadiz 1–1 OviedoThis fixture projects as a statistical deadlock, with both teams' season-long scoring and concession rates converging around 1.3 goals per game. The model's strongest signal is the 1-1 correct score, backed by both sides' propensity to score and concede at similar rates and a recent uptick in Cadiz's attacking numbers. The most plausible way this forecast goes wrong is if Oviedo's superior shot volume (17 per game in their last five) translates into a higher conversion rate than their season average, tipping the balance in their favour.
Cadiz vs Oviedo: Common Questions
Who will win Cadiz vs Oviedo?
The model rates this match as extremely close, with a 32% chance for either side to win and a 36% probability of a draw. Both teams' season scoring and concession rates are nearly identical, making a stalemate the likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Oviedo?
There is a 54% probability that both teams will score, as Oviedo have found the net in all of their last five matches and Cadiz have scored in three of five. Both sides average over 1.2 goals for and against per game.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet in Cadiz vs Oviedo?
The data points to a slightly low-scoring match, with under 2.5 goals rated at 56% probability. Both teams' season over 2.5 rates are near 50%, but their combined goals per game (2.36) and recent form suggest a marginal edge to the under.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cadiz vs Oviedo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.