Castellón vs Eibar Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Castellón
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Eibar
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Castellón Win
Castellón vs Eibar: Match Preview
Castellón enter this top-three clash as league leaders, riding a three-match winning streak and boasting the best defensive record in the division with only four goals conceded from eleven games. Their home record is formidable—twelve scored, one conceded in five matches—while Eibar, sitting third, have stumbled recently with two defeats in their last three away games but remain the league's joint third-highest scorers.
The statistical profile of this fixture is shaped by Castellón's defensive discipline (0.36 goals conceded per match, 63.6% clean sheet rate) and Eibar's attacking intent (1.82 goals per game, 14.2 shots per match over their last five). Eibar's defensive issues are notable: they've failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and concede 1.17 per away match, while Castellón's attack is efficient and rarely blanked (scoring in 10 of 11 league games). Both sides show a tendency for goals in the second half, but Castellón have been fast starters with seven first-half goals in their last five.
The model expects Castellón's defensive structure and home efficiency to be decisive, but Eibar's offensive output should ensure a competitive contest. The most probable outcome is a narrow home win, with both teams likely to score and the total goals line hovering around 2 to 3. Castellón's ability to limit high-quality chances at home is the strongest statistical edge.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Castellón vs Eibar Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Castellón vs Eibar that most previews miss.
- 1Castellón have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 matches and 7 of 11 overall (63.6%).
- 2Eibar's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 7 of 11 league games (63.6%), the highest rate among the top three.
- 3The last two Castellón v Eibar meetings at Castalia ended in home wins with Eibar scoring once or not at all.
Who do you think wins: Castellón vs Eibar?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Castellón vs Eibar(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Castellón Win
Castellón have won 8 of 11 league matches and boast a home defensive record of just 1 goal conceded in 5 home games, while Eibar have lost 2 of their last 3 away and concede 1.17 per away match.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Eibar's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 63.6% of games this season, and Castellón average 2 goals scored per match; both teams' attack rates point to a moderate goal environment.
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BTTS: Yes
Eibar have scored in 5 of 6 away games and failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 5, while Castellón have scored in 10 of 11 league fixtures.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Castellón vs Eibar Prediction
This fixture pits the league leaders Castellón, who have conceded just four goals all season, against third-placed Eibar, whose attack is among the division's most productive but whose defence looks vulnerable away from home. Castellón arrive in formidable form, with three consecutive wins and a home record of 12 goals scored and only one conceded in five matches. Eibar, by contrast, have lost two of their last three away games and shipped seven goals in six away fixtures, though their scoring rate (1.82 per game) keeps them competitive. The statistical matchup is defined by Castellón's exceptional defensive metrics—0.36 goals conceded per match and a 63.6% clean sheet rate—against an Eibar side that has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and concedes an average of 1.18 per game. Eibar's attack, however, is potent: they average 14.2 shots and 5.6 on target per game over their last five, and have scored in 5 of 6 away league matches. Castellón's attack is efficient, with 2.2 goals per game in their last five and 2.0 for the season, while their home matches see an average of 2.6 total goals. Given these rates, the model expects Castellón to control the match through defensive solidity and efficient finishing, but Eibar's attacking output should ensure they create chances. The likeliest scenario is a narrow home win, with both teams getting on the scoresheet and a moderate probability of a third goal. Castellón's superior home defensive record is the decisive edge, but Eibar's away scoring threat prevents a shutout prediction.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Castellón average 2 goals per game, Eibar 1.82; both sides rank top three for attack in Segunda.
Defence
- →Castellón have conceded just one goal in five home league matches (0.2 per game).
- →Eibar have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches and concede 1.17 per away game.
🚩 Castellón vs Eibar Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Castellón and 3.7 for Eibar, for an expected total of 7.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 36% · Over 10.5: 15%.
How Castellón and Eibar Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Castellón vs Eibar Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Castellónlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Eibarlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Castellón are in commanding form, winning three straight and conceding just once across their last five league matches, including a 4-0 home win over Sporting Gijon. Eibar's recent form is mixed—they've lost two of their last three, including a 2-0 defeat at Cordoba, and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, but remain dangerous in attack with eight goals in that span.
Castellón vs Eibar — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Castellón vs Eibar
Castellón have dominated recent home meetings with Eibar, winning 2-1 and 2-0 in their last two at Castalia. The last four encounters have produced just one draw and no away wins, with scorelines consistently low-scoring and favouring the home side.
Castellón vs Eibar Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
Castellón wins
1
Draws
1
Eibar wins
Things to Watch: Castellón vs Eibar
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed; late changes could impact goal or card rates.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown some variance in recent results, with Eibar's away defence a potential swing factor.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Castellón 2–1 EibarThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Castellón, driven by their league-best defensive record at home (just one goal conceded in five) and Eibar's recent struggles to keep opponents out on their travels. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Eibar's attack—averaging nearly two goals per game—finds early success and forces Castellón to chase, opening up a higher-scoring contest.
Castellón vs Eibar: Common Questions
Who will win Castellón vs Eibar?
Castellón are favoured with a 47% probability of victory, reflecting their strong home record (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) and defensive solidity, while Eibar have a 23% chance and the draw sits at 30%.
Will both teams score in Castellón vs Eibar?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, as Eibar have scored in 5 of 6 away matches and Castellón have scored in 10 of 11 league games, but Castellón's clean sheet rate (64%) tempers the probability.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Castellón vs Eibar?
Over 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54%, with Eibar's matches going over in 7 of 11 league games (64%) and Castellón averaging 2 goals per match; however, Castellón's defensive record keeps the under in play.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Castellón vs Eibar: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.