Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Chapecoense-sc
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Internacional
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.25(+11% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Internacional Edge Chapecoense in Tactical Battle Despite Possession Deficit
Internacional claimed a hard-fought 2-1 away victory over Chapecoense in Serie A action, overcoming a significant possession disadvantage to snatch all three points. Despite Chapecoense dominating the ball with 63% possession and firing 13 shots, it was Internacional’s clinical finishing and defensive discipline that proved decisive. The visitors struck first through Alan Patrick in the 25th minute, only for Chapecoense to level on the stroke of halftime. However, a second-half goal from Paulinho restored Internacional’s lead, one they would not relinquish. Chapecoense pressed relentlessly in search of an equalizer, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third was evident, managing just two shots on target from 13 attempts. Internacional, meanwhile, weathered the storm, kept their shape in a compact 4-1-4-1, and capitalized on their limited opportunities to secure a valuable away win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
25' — Goal
Alan Patrick puts Internacional ahead with a composed finish.
45' — Goal
Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira equalizes for Chapecoense on the stroke of halftime.
67' — Goal
Paulinho restores Internacional's lead with a decisive strike.
Multiple' — Yellow Cards
A flurry of bookings as both sides battle for control, with Chapecoense collecting five yellows and Internacional three.
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense controlled the tempo for large stretches, boasting 63% possession and dictating much of the play from midfield. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid passing and territorial dominance, but a lack of incisiveness in the final third let them down. Despite creating 13 attempts, only two tested Matheus Cunha in the Internacional goal. The hosts’ frustration was evident in their 19 fouls and five yellow cards, as they struggled to break down a disciplined Internacional defense after falling behind for a second time.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Internacional
Internacional delivered a textbook away performance, soaking up pressure and striking with precision. Despite seeing just 37% of the ball and attempting only four shots, they matched Chapecoense with two efforts on target—both resulting in goals. Alan Patrick opened the scoring in the 25th minute, and Paulinho restored the lead midway through the second half. Their 4-1-4-1 setup provided defensive solidity, with R. Villagra shielding the back four and the midfield working tirelessly to stifle Chapecoense’s creative outlets.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Chapecoense lined up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on ball retention and building attacks through the midfield trio of Camilo, Yago Felipe, and Marcinho. Their approach allowed them to dominate possession and territory, but Internacional’s disciplined 4-1-4-1 shape limited clear-cut chances. The visitors sat deep, inviting pressure, and looked to break quickly when the opportunity arose. R. Villagra’s screening role in front of the back four was pivotal, disrupting Chapecoense’s rhythm and providing a platform for counter-attacks. Set pieces and transitions proved crucial, with Internacional’s goals coming at key moments—one from open play after a turnover, the other capitalizing on Chapecoense’s stretched defense. Substitutions from both sides aimed to inject energy, but the tactical rigidity of Internacional ultimately saw them through.
Turning Point
Paulinho’s goal in the 67th minute, which restored Internacional’s lead and forced Chapecoense into increasingly desperate attacks.
Man of the Match
Paulinho
Scored the decisive goal and contributed significantly to Internacional’s disciplined counter-attacking display.
Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional: Match Preview
Chapecoense-sc enter this fixture rooted to the bottom of the table with just 17 points from 25 matches, but recent results show a flicker of fight, including a 2-1 away win at Corinthians and a 1-0 home victory over Sao Paulo in their last three. Internacional, only marginally better off in 18th with 25 points from 26 games, are winless in five (LLLDD) and have just suffered back-to-back defeats, conceding three in each of their last two outings.
Statistically, this shapes up as a contest between two sides with similar attacking output (both average 1.08 goals per game) but differing defensive profiles: Chapecoense have the league's worst defence (2.00 goals conceded per game, 8% clean sheet rate), while Internacional are slightly sturdier at the back (1.31 conceded per game, 23% clean sheets). Both teams see a high rate of over 1.5 goals (Chapecoense 88%, Internacional 73%), but only Chapecoense regularly clear the 2.5 mark (56% over 2.5, compared to Internacional's 38%). Corners could be plentiful, with both averaging over 5 per match in their last five.
Given the close match-up in scoring rates and the high frequency of draws for both sides (Chapecoense 8, Internacional 10), the model expects a tight, error-prone contest likely to be decided by set pieces or defensive lapses. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with neither side able to sustain attacking pressure long enough to pull away.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional that most previews miss.
- 1Chapecoense have failed to keep a clean sheet in 92% of their matches this season.
- 2Internacional's last five matches have averaged 9.2 corners per game, with three matches seeing 10 or more.
- 3Only one of the last ten H2H meetings ended in a draw, but both teams have drawn at least 8 times this season.
Who do you think wins: Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.26
The model gives a 34% probability to the draw, above the 31% implied by the odds. Both teams have drawn at least 8 times this season, and their scoring/conceding rates are closely matched (Chapecoense 1.08 GF/2.00 GA, Internacional 1.08 GF/1.31 GA per game), supporting a high likelihood of a stalemate.
Read more ↓
Corners: Over 8.5
Combined last 5 averages for corners (Chapecoense 5.0, Internacional 7.2) suggest a high-corners environment, with the model estimating 10.1 total corners.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional Prediction
This is a meeting between two of the league's lowest-scoring, most defensively fragile sides, both desperate for points at the bottom of the table. The statistical profile points to a balanced contest with neither side able to dominate for long stretches, and both prone to errors. The distribution of expected goals and shots suggests a high chance of a draw, with both teams likely to score but unlikely to break away.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have drawn at least 8 matches this season, and their last 5 form is poor (Chapecoense WLWDL, Internacional LLLDD).
Defence
- →Chapecoense average 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game, with just 8% clean sheets.
- →Internacional's away record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses, 12 scored, 18 conceded.
🚩 Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Chapecoense-sc and 6.2 for Internacional, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 56%.
How Chapecoense-sc and Internacional Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chapecoense-sclast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Internacionallast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chapecoense-sc have shown some resilience in recent weeks, picking up two wins from their last five (WLWDL) despite languishing at the foot of the table. Internacional, by contrast, are winless in five (LLLDD) and have conceded three goals in each of their last two matches, suggesting a side low on confidence and defensive organisation.
Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional
The last ten meetings have produced only one draw, with Internacional holding a slight edge (five wins to Chapecoense's four). Recent encounters have been competitive, with the last match ending 2-0 to Internacional, but several games have been settled by a single goal, highlighting the narrow margins between these sides.
Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Chapecoense-sc wins
1
Draws
5
Internacional wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional
The draw offers the clearest value at current odds (3.25), with the model's 34% probability suggesting a 10.5% edge over the bookmaker. Both teams to score is close to fair value, while the under 2.5 goals market is slightly overpriced given Chapecoense's high over 2.5 rate. Punters looking for value should focus on the draw in the 1X2 market.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is volatile, with Chapecoense showing slightly better momentum but still bottom of the table.
- ⚠️Internacional's away defence is inconsistent, but Chapecoense's home attack is among the weakest in the league.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chapecoense-sc 1–1 InternacionalThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the likeliest outcome, driven by both teams' near-identical scoring rates and high draw frequency. The single strongest data point is Chapecoense's 2.00 goals conceded per game, offset by Internacional's lack of cutting edge away from home. The main risk is that either defence collapses under pressure, leading to a higher-scoring winner.
Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional: Common Questions
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
The model rates this as a near coin-flip, with Internacional slightly favoured (35% away win) over Chapecoense (31%), but the draw is almost as likely at 34%. Both teams have similar scoring rates and a history of draws, so a stalemate is the most probable result.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
There is a 56% probability that both teams will score, based on Chapecoense's poor defensive record (only 8% clean sheets) and Internacional's tendency to concede away (1.5 per game in the last five).
How many goals are expected in Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
The model estimates a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of over 1.5 goals. Both teams average just over 1 goal scored per game, but Chapecoense's matches are more likely to go over 2.5 due to their defensive frailty.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.