Coritiba vs Mirassol Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Coritiba
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Mirassol
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 2.25(+9% edge)
Coritiba vs Mirassol: Match Preview
Coritiba come into this fixture sitting 8th in Serie A, with a recent run of two wins and a draw in their last three matches, and a respectable home record (5 wins, 3 draws from 12). Mirassol, in contrast, are 17th and have taken just one point from their last three league games, with a particularly poor away record (1 win from 11). The hosts are looking to consolidate their top-half position, while Mirassol urgently need points to escape the relegation zone.
Statistically, this matchup projects as open: Coritiba's matches average 2.54 goals per game, and Mirassol's even higher at 2.70, with both teams above the league mean for over 2.5 goals (Coritiba 45.8%, Mirassol 56.5%). Mirassol's defence has been especially vulnerable, conceding 2.2 per game over their last five, and their away record (10 scored, 18 conceded) is among the league's worst. Coritiba's attack is not prolific but consistent, and they generate nearly 12 shots per game at home. Discipline could play a role, as Mirassol average 2.6 yellows per match recently, and both teams combine for over 4 cards per game.
The model expects Coritiba's home advantage and Mirassol's away frailty to be decisive, with the most likely outcome a narrow home win in a match with goals at both ends. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1, with Coritiba's attack likely to exploit Mirassol's defensive lapses, but the visitors' ability to score in four of their last five suggests they will contribute to the scoreline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Coritiba vs Mirassol Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Coritiba vs Mirassol that most previews miss.
- 1Mirassol have conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 league matches, and kept just 1 clean sheet in 23 games this season (4.3%).
- 2Coritiba's home matches average 2.42 goals per game (15 scored, 14 conceded in 12), while Mirassol's away games average 2.55 (10 scored, 18 conceded in 11).
- 3Both teams have scored in 7 of Mirassol's last 10 away games, and in 3 of Coritiba's last 5 overall.
Who do you think wins: Coritiba vs Mirassol?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Coritiba vs Mirassol(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2.25
Both sides have above-league-average over 2.5 rates (Coritiba 45.8%, Mirassol 56.5%), and Mirassol's last 5 have averaged 3.0 total goals per game; the model's 54% probability at 2.25 odds offers notable value.
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Match Result: Coritiba Win@ 2.24
Coritiba are 8th with a solid home record (5W 3D 4L) and Mirassol have the league's second-worst away record (1W 3D 7L, 10:18 goal difference); the model's 46% win probability slightly exceeds the market's implied 44.4%.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Coritiba vs Mirassol Prediction
This fixture matches a mid-table Coritiba side with a positive home goal difference against a Mirassol team struggling badly away from home and leaking goals at a high rate. The statistical shape points to a moderate-to-high goal environment, with both teams showing a tendency for matches to go over 2.5 goals and Mirassol's defensive frailty a persistent theme.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Coritiba average 1.25 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game, with a 45.8% over 2.5 rate.
- →Mirassol concede 1.57 per game (season) and have just one away win in 11 attempts.
- →Mirassol have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5, conceding 2.2 per match in that span.
🚩 Coritiba vs Mirassol Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Coritiba and 3.8 for Mirassol, for an expected total of 8.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 48% · Over 10.5: 24%.
How Coritiba and Mirassol Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Coritiba vs Mirassol Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Coritibalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Mirassollast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Coritiba are trending upward, with two wins and a draw in their last three, and have scored in four of their last five. Mirassol, by contrast, have failed to win any of their last five league matches and have the league's second-worst away record, though they have at least found the net in four of those games.
Coritiba vs Mirassol — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Coritiba vs Mirassol
The head-to-head record is limited but notable for away wins in all three recent meetings, including Coritiba's 1-0 win at Mirassol earlier this season. However, with such a small sample, no strong pattern emerges for this fixture.
Coritiba vs Mirassol Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
Coritiba wins
0
Draws
2
Mirassol wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Coritiba vs Mirassol
The strongest value edge is on over 2.5 goals, where the model's 54% probability at 2.25 odds yields an expected value of +21.5%. There's also a small edge on Coritiba to win at 2.25, but the value is modest given the hosts' occasional defensive lapses.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Coritiba vs Mirassol
- ⚠️Mirassol's attack has shown some resilience, failing to score just once in the last 5.
- ⚠️Coritiba have only kept one clean sheet in their last 5 and have a negative goal difference overall.
- ⚠️H2H sample is limited (3 matches) and recent results have been split, so direct matchup signal is weak.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Coritiba 2–1 MirassolCoritiba are favoured to edge this contest 2-1, with Mirassol's away defensive record (1 win, 18 goals conceded in 11 away) the single strongest indicator. The main risk is Coritiba's own inconsistency—just one clean sheet in their last five—meaning a high-scoring draw or a late Mirassol equaliser cannot be ruled out.
Coritiba vs Mirassol: Common Questions
Who will win Coritiba vs Mirassol?
The model gives Coritiba a 46% chance of victory, Mirassol a 24% chance, and a draw at 30%. Coritiba's home record and Mirassol's poor away form tilt the balance to the hosts.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Coritiba vs Mirassol?
There's a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals, with both teams above league average for high-scoring matches (Coritiba 45.8%, Mirassol 56.5%), and Mirassol conceding 2.2 per game over their last five.
Are both teams likely to score in Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Both teams to score is rated at 55%. Mirassol have scored in four of their last five, and Coritiba have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Coritiba vs Mirassol: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.