CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
CS Sfaxien
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
ES Tunis
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis: Match Preview
CS Sfaxien enter this clash unbeaten in the league (2W, 2D), sitting fourth with a solid defensive record—just three goals conceded in four matches. ES Tunis, second in the table, have collected three wins from four but have a negative goal difference away from home, having conceded three in two road fixtures. Both sides are in the early stages of the campaign, but the points are crucial at the top end of a tight table.
The statistical shape of this fixture is defined by low-scoring, closely fought contests. CS Sfaxien average 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per league match, while ES Tunis post 1.75 for and 1.5 against. However, Sfaxien’s home defence (one goal conceded in two) contrasts with ES Tunis’s modest away attack (two goals in two). The head-to-head data reinforces the undercurrent of caution: seven of the last ten meetings finished under 2.5 goals, and five ended level. Set-piece and discipline data is lacking, but both sides have shown a tendency to keep things tight in the opening half.
Given these distributions, the model expects a low-event match, with the most likely outcomes clustered around 1-1 and 1-0/0-1. Both teams have enough attacking quality to find the net, but neither has shown the ability to dominate. The draw is marginally favoured, with under 2.5 goals the statistical standout.
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis that most previews miss.
- 1CS Sfaxien’s home league matches average just 2.5 total goals, with both ending under 2.5.
- 2ES Tunis have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last four away league matches (dating to last season).
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, 60% finished either 0-0 or 1-1.
Who do you think wins: CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average between 1.4 and 1.75 goals scored per game but have shown defensive resilience (each with two clean sheets in their last five), and the last 10 head-to-heads have produced five draws, four of which finished either 1-1 or 0-0.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
CS Sfaxien’s matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 75% of their league games this season, and 7 of the last 10 H2H meetings have finished with two goals or fewer.
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Double Chance: CS Sfaxien or Draw
CS Sfaxien are unbeaten at home this season (2W, 0D, 0L), while ES Tunis have lost one of their two away games and historically struggle to win in Sfax (no away wins for Sfaxien, but five draws in last ten H2H).
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis Prediction
Statistically, this is a tight fixture between two sides with similar defensive and attacking output, both trending towards low-scoring, closely contested games. The historical head-to-head record is dominated by draws and slim margins, and neither side has shown a consistent ability to break down the other’s defence. The model expects a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances, likely decided by a single goal or settled as a draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →CS Sfaxien have conceded just one goal in two home league matches this season.
- →ES Tunis have scored only twice in two away league games, conceding three.
Match Context
- →Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended under 2.5 goals.
How CS Sfaxien and ES Tunis Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
CS Sfaxienlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Tunislast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CS Sfaxien are unbeaten in their last five, including two home wins and two draws, conceding just three goals across four league matches. ES Tunis have won three of their last four league games, but their away form is less convincing, splitting their two road fixtures with one win and one loss. Both teams have shown defensive resilience, each keeping two clean sheets in their last five outings.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
What History Says: CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis
ES Tunis have the historical edge, winning five of the last ten encounters, but the fixture has been defined by stalemates—five draws, four of which ended 0-0 or 1-1. CS Sfaxien have not beaten ES Tunis in this period, and goals have been at a premium, with seven matches under 2.5 goals.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
CS Sfaxien wins
5
Draws
5
ES Tunis wins
Things to Watch: CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Lack of shots, corners, and possession data limits granularity of attacking/defensive matchup.
- ⚠️Early-season sample sizes (4 league games each) increase volatility in attack/defence rates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
CS Sfaxien 1–1 ES TunisThe model projects a 1-1 draw, with the strongest supporting data point being the high frequency of draws and low-scoring results in recent head-to-heads. The main risk to this outcome is an early goal forcing one side to open up, particularly given ES Tunis’s slightly higher attacking output this season.
CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis: Common Questions
Who will win CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis?
The model gives CS Sfaxien a 32% chance of victory, ES Tunis a 30% chance, and the draw is most likely at 38%. Both teams are defensively solid and have drawn five of their last ten head-to-heads.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 67%, with both teams averaging fewer than two goals conceded per game and seven of the last ten meetings finishing under this line.
Is both teams to score (BTTS) likely in CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis?
The probability for both teams to score is 48%, with neither side consistently prolific nor regularly shut out; recent H2H matches have seen both teams score in only three of the last ten.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.