ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
ES Hammam-Sousse
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 1
Stade Tunisien
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Stade Tunisien Rally Late to Sink ES Hammam-Sousse 3-1 Away
Stade Tunisien produced a clinical second-half display to come from behind and secure a 3-1 victory over ES Hammam-Sousse at the Stade Municipal Bou Ali-Lahouar. The hosts took a deserved lead in the 38th minute, but Stade Tunisien responded with an equalizer right on the stroke of halftime before dominating after the interval. ES Hammam-Sousse looked lively in the first half, but their momentum was halted by a late first-half goal from the visitors. Stade Tunisien then asserted their superiority in the second period, scoring twice more—once just after the hour mark and again in the dying moments—to claim all three points on the road. The match was a physical contest, with five yellow cards shown, but Stade Tunisien’s efficiency in front of goal proved decisive.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
1 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
38' — Goal
ES Hammam-Sousse take the lead with a well-worked move.
45' — Goal
Stade Tunisien equalize just before halftime, swinging momentum.
63' — Goal
Stade Tunisien go ahead with a clinical finish.
90' — Goal
Stade Tunisien add a third to secure the points.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Physical contest sees ES Hammam-Sousse pick up four yellows, Stade Tunisien one.
ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse started brightly and were rewarded for their attacking intent with a 38th-minute opener. However, their inability to maintain concentration saw them concede just before halftime, and they struggled to regain their rhythm in the second half. Despite fighting hard and picking up four yellow cards in a combative display, the hosts ultimately lost their grip on the match as Stade Tunisien’s quality shone through after the break.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien showed impressive resilience, recovering from a goal down to take control of the match. Their equalizer just before halftime shifted the momentum, and they capitalized with two well-timed goals in the second half. Defensively solid and clinical in attack, Stade Tunisien managed the game well, picking up only one yellow card and finishing strongly to seal a deserved away win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With formations unavailable, both teams appeared to favor a direct, physical approach, as evidenced by the high card count. ES Hammam-Sousse started with attacking intent, pressing high and looking to unsettle the visitors, which paid off with the opening goal. However, Stade Tunisien adjusted well, showing greater composure in possession after halftime and exploiting spaces as the hosts tired. The visitors’ ability to strike just before and after the interval was key, and their disciplined defensive structure limited ES Hammam-Sousse’s chances in the second half. Tactical substitutions may have helped Stade Tunisien manage the game and close it out late.
Turning Point
Stade Tunisien’s equalizer in first-half stoppage time changed the momentum, allowing them to dominate the second half.
Man of the Match
Unknown goalscorer (63', 90')
Scored the decisive second and third goals, turning the match in Stade Tunisien’s favor.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien: Match Preview
ES Hammam-Sousse enter this fixture at the foot of the table, having failed to score in all three Ligue 1 outings (LLD) and collecting just a single point. Stade Tunisien have also started slowly, drawing once and losing once, with a marginally better attack (2 goals in 2 games) but no clean sheets. Both sides are seeking their first win, and with little separating them in the standings, the opening exchanges are likely to be cautious.
The underlying numbers point to a low-scoring environment. Hammam-Sousse's last five matches average just 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Stade Tunisien's figures are 0.6 for and 1.0 against. Both teams have failed to score in at least two of their last five, and the season over 2.5 goal rate is just 25% across their combined four league matches. The home side have yet to concede at home, but have also failed to find the net, while Stade Tunisien's away record is similarly blunt.
Given the lack of attacking output and the statistical weight towards draws and unders, the model expects a tight contest, with a single goal likely to decide it. The most probable scoreline is 0-1 in favour of Stade Tunisien, but a 0-0 or 1-1 cannot be ruled out. The most robust angle is the under 2.5 goals market, with a projected 82% probability.
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Expected goals · model says 0.55
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
15%
BTTS: Yes
23%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien that most previews miss.
- 1ES Hammam-Sousse have failed to score in three straight Ligue 1 matches this season.
- 2Stade Tunisien's last five matches average just 1.6 total goals per game.
- 3Five of the last eight head-to-heads have finished with under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have combined for just 2 goals in 5 league matches this season, with ES Hammam-Sousse yet to score and a combined over 2.5 rate of only 25% (1/4 matches).
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Match Result: Draw
The model assigns a 41% probability to the draw, with both sides averaging less than 1 goal per game and neither attack showing cutting edge early in the campaign.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien Prediction
This fixture features two sides with limited attacking output and a statistical tilt towards a low-scoring, cagey contest. ES Hammam-Sousse have failed to score in all three Ligue 1 matches so far, while Stade Tunisien have managed just two goals in their opening two. Both are winless and sit in the bottom half, with defensive solidity outweighing offensive threat.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Stade Tunisien's only away match ended in a 1-2 defeat, but they have averaged 1 goal per game across their two league fixtures.
- →The last eight head-to-heads have produced just one goalless draw, but five finished with two or fewer goals.
Match Context
- →ES Hammam-Sousse have not scored in 270 minutes of Ligue 1 football this season.
How ES Hammam-Sousse and Stade Tunisien Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ES Hammam-Sousselast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stade Tunisienlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Hammam-Sousse are struggling for momentum, winless in their last five and without a goal in three Ligue 1 matches. Stade Tunisien have also started slowly, picking up just a point from their opening two league fixtures, but have at least found the net twice in that span. Both sides are searching for a spark to ignite their campaigns.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien — Last 3 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien hold a slight historical edge, winning four of the last eight meetings, including both most recent encounters. However, these fixtures are often tight, with five of the last eight producing under 2.5 goals and only one ending in a goalless draw.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
3
ES Hammam-Sousse wins
1
Draws
4
Stade Tunisien wins
Things to Watch: ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be computed.
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams’ season records (3 and 2 matches respectively).
- ⚠️Lack of shots, possession, and set piece data limits precision on attacking/defensive threat.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ES Hammam-Sousse 0–1 Stade TunisienThe model projects a 0-1 away win for Stade Tunisien, driven primarily by ES Hammam-Sousse's inability to score (0 goals in 3 league matches) and the overall low goal rates on both sides. The main risk is that early-season small sample sizes understate either team's attacking potential, but the weight of evidence points strongly to a low-scoring outcome.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien: Common Questions
Who will win ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien?
Stade Tunisien are slight favourites with a 38% win probability, while the draw is also highly likely at 41%. ES Hammam-Sousse have just a 21% chance of taking all three points, according to the model's rates.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien?
The model assigns an 82% probability to under 2.5 goals, with both teams combining for just 2 goals in 5 league matches this season and only one of their last four league games going over this line.
Are both teams likely to score in ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien?
Both teams to score is rated at just 24%, as ES Hammam-Sousse have yet to find the net in Ligue 1 and Stade Tunisien have only scored twice in two games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.