Farnborough vs Horsham Predictions
National League - South · England
Farnborough
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Horsham
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
OU 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Farnborough vs Horsham
Farnborough vs Horsham: Match Preview
Farnborough return to home action after a mixed run, sitting 17th with 14 points from 11 games and a negative goal difference. Their recent form is patchy (WLDLD), but a 2-0 win over Dagenham & Redbridge last time out offers some encouragement. Horsham, three places above with 15 points from 12, have drawn half their league matches and are coming off a 2-2 away draw at Ebbsfleet United.
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, closely matched contest. Farnborough's home attack has been notably blunt, scoring just three times in five home games, while Horsham's away defence is among the more robust in the division (six conceded in six). Both teams average around 1.2 goals scored per game over their last five, but Farnborough's overall season average is lower at 0.91. The over 2.5 rate is modest for both (Farnborough 36%, Horsham 50%), and both sides have managed only one clean sheet in their last five league matches.
Given the underlying rates and both teams' tendency to draw (Horsham: 6/12, Farnborough: 2/11), the model expects a tactical battle with few clear chances. Horsham's unbeaten away record (2W, 4D) and Farnborough's home struggles point to a stalemate as the likeliest outcome, with a 1-1 scoreline the statistical favourite.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Farnborough vs Horsham Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Farnborough vs Horsham that most previews miss.
- 1Farnborough's home matches average just 2.0 total goals, lowest quartile in the division.
- 2Horsham have drawn 4 of 6 away games, conceding only 1.0 per away fixture.
- 3Both teams have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches.
Who do you think wins: Farnborough vs Horsham?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Farnborough vs Horsham(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both sides have drawn a high proportion of matches (Horsham: 6/12; Farnborough: 2/11), and the underlying goal rates (Farnborough: 0.91 scored, 1.55 conceded; Horsham: 1.17 scored, 1.25 conceded per game) point to a low-scoring, balanced contest.
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OU 2.5: Under 2.5
Farnborough's home matches average just 2.0 goals (3 scored, 7 conceded in 5), and only 36% of their league games go over 2.5; Horsham's away games are also modest (8 scored, 6 conceded in 6).
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Farnborough vs Horsham Prediction
Farnborough's home attack has struggled for output, while Horsham's unbeaten away record is built on defensive resilience. Both teams' season-long scoring rates are below league average, and their recent form points to a contest likely to be decided by fine margins rather than attacking flair.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Horsham remain unbeaten away (2W, 4D), conceding only 1.0 goal per away match.
Match Context
- →Farnborough average just 0.6 goals per home game, with only 3 scored in 5 home fixtures.
- →Combined, these sides have drawn 8 of 23 league matches this season.
How Farnborough and Horsham Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Farnborough vs Horsham Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Farnboroughlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Horshamlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Farnborough's recent form is inconsistent, with just one win in their last five (WLDLD) and a home attack that has struggled for output. Horsham have also found wins hard to come by but remain hard to beat, drawing three of their last five and staying unbeaten away from home this season.
Farnborough vs Horsham — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Farnborough vs Horsham
In their only two recent meetings, Farnborough have never lost to Horsham, winning 2-0 at home and drawing 2-2 away. Both matches saw at least two goals, but the sample is too small to draw strong conclusions.
Farnborough vs Horsham Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Farnborough wins
1
Draws
0
Horsham wins
Things to Watch: Farnborough vs Horsham
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so no value edges can be quantified.
- ⚠️Lack of granular shot/corner/card data limits precision on set piece and discipline markets.
- ⚠️Small H2H sample (2 matches) offers limited predictive value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Farnborough 1–1 HorshamThe model forecasts a 1-1 draw, anchored by both teams' season-long scoring and concession rates and Horsham's unbeaten away record. The biggest risk to this call is Farnborough's volatility—when they lose at home, it's often heavy (e.g., 0-4 Tonbridge Angels), so a lopsided result can't be ruled out if defensive errors creep in.
Farnborough vs Horsham: Common Questions
Who will win Farnborough vs Horsham?
The probabilities are tightly split: Farnborough 35%, draw 36%, Horsham 29%. Both teams have struggled for consistency, and the model's most likely outcome is a draw, reflecting their similar scoring and concession rates.
Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Horsham?
There's a 55% probability for both teams to score, based on each side averaging over one goal per game in recent weeks and only one clean sheet each in their last five.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The model gives a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals, with Farnborough's home games averaging just 2.0 goals and their over 2.5 rate at 36% for the season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Farnborough vs Horsham: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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