Girona vs Almeria Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Girona
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Almeria
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Almeria Edge Girona with Second-Half Strike in Gritty Montilivi Battle
Almeria clinched a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Girona at Estadi Montilivi, thanks to a decisive goal midway through the second half. In a match where both sides struggled to convert their chances, it was the visitors who made their moment count, capitalizing on a rare defensive lapse from the hosts. Girona, despite registering 16 shots and forcing seven corners, failed to break down a disciplined Almeria defence, ultimately paying the price for their profligacy in front of goal. The match was a tense affair, characterized by physical duels and tactical discipline from both teams. Almeria, boasting 54% possession, managed to control the tempo for large stretches, while Girona's 4-4-2 setup looked to exploit transitions and wide areas. However, the hosts' efforts were stymied by a lack of cutting edge, and a flurry of yellow cards underscored their mounting frustration as the clock ticked down.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
67' — Goal
Miguel de la Fuente scores the only goal of the match, finishing off a swift Almeria counter.
72' — Yellow Card
Girona's frustration boils over as they pick up their fifth yellow card.
80' — Corner
Girona earn their seventh corner, but Almeria's defence stands firm.
Girona
Girona started brightly, creating several half-chances and maintaining pressure with seven corners, but struggled to convert their 16 shots into meaningful threats, registering only three on target. Their 4-4-2 formation aimed to stretch Almeria's backline, but the final ball was lacking, and clear-cut opportunities were at a premium. As the match wore on, frustration grew, reflected in five yellow cards and a series of late fouls as they chased the game. Despite a spirited effort, Girona's inability to find a breakthrough left them empty-handed. The midfield, marshaled by Fran Beltrán and I. Gonzalez, worked tirelessly but ultimately could not unlock a resolute Almeria defence.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Almeria
Almeria executed their game plan with discipline and composure, controlling 54% of possession and matching Girona's attacking threat with 12 shots, three of which tested the goalkeeper. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed them to absorb pressure and strike on the counter, a tactic that paid dividends with the crucial goal in the 67th minute. Defensively solid and well-organized, Almeria limited Girona's opportunities and managed the game's tempo effectively after taking the lead. Their ability to remain composed under pressure, despite collecting three yellow cards, was key to seeing out the victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Girona lined up in a classic 4-4-2, seeking to exploit width through Carles Pérez and Álex Moreno, and create overloads in wide areas. Their pressing in midfield was energetic, but Almeria's double pivot shielded the back four effectively, forcing Girona into speculative efforts. Almeria, in a 4-2-3-1, prioritized compactness and quick transitions, with their attacking midfield trio supporting lone striker Miguel de la Fuente. After taking the lead, Almeria dropped deeper, inviting pressure but maintaining discipline, while Girona pushed full-backs higher and committed numbers forward, leaving themselves vulnerable to counters. Set pieces were a notable feature, with Girona racking up seven corners, but Almeria's aerial organization and Fernández's command of his box kept the hosts at bay. Tactical fouls and bookings became more frequent as Girona chased the game, but Almeria's substitutions and time management disrupted the hosts' rhythm effectively.
Turning Point
Miguel de la Fuente's 67th-minute goal broke the deadlock and allowed Almeria to dictate the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
Miguel de la Fuente
Provided the decisive goal and led the line with composure in a tightly contested match.
Girona vs Almeria: Match Preview
Girona host Almeria in a top-four clash where both sides have built their campaigns on defensive solidity and efficient attacking. Girona's home form is robust, with 16 goals scored and just six conceded in seven matches, though they arrive after a narrow defeat at Real Sociedad II. Almeria, sitting second, are unbeaten in five and have lost only twice all season, showing particular resilience away from home.
The statistical matchup points to a contest of fine margins. Girona average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over their last five, but Almeria's away defence is among the league's best—just five goals conceded in six away fixtures. Both teams' season-long over 2.5 goal percentages are below 50% (Girona 41.67%, Almeria 50%), and their combined clean sheet rates exceed 37%. The first half could be especially tight: Girona have conceded only two first-half goals at home, and Almeria's away matches are typically low-scoring before the break.
With both teams' underlying rates pointing to a low-scoring, evenly matched affair, the model favours a draw, most likely 1-1. The distribution of shots and goals suggests neither side will dominate for long stretches, and the draw probability (34%) edges out either team to win. Expect a tactical battle with few clear chances and both sides likely to settle for a point if parity persists into the second half.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Girona vs Almeria Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Girona vs Almeria that most previews miss.
- 1Girona's home matches average just 0.29 goals conceded per first half this season.
- 2Almeria have failed to score only once in their last 12 league matches, but have not scored more than twice in any away game.
- 3Four of the last six head-to-heads have produced at least three goals, but three of the last five meetings ended level.
Who do you think wins: Girona vs Almeria?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Girona vs Almeria(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average under 1 goal conceded per match this season (Girona 0.92, Almeria 0.83), and each has drawn two of their last five league games. The 1-1 appears likeliest given the balance of attack and defence and the high draw probability (34%).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Girona's home matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 58% of cases (season: 41.67% over), while Almeria's away games are even tighter (only 2.17 goals per away match). Both teams' season-long concession rates suggest a controlled, low-scoring contest.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Girona vs Almeria Prediction
This is a meeting of two of the league's most balanced outfits, with Girona (4th) and Almeria (2nd) separated by just five points and both boasting positive goal differences. Girona's recent form is mixed (LWWWD), but their home output remains strong, netting 16 goals in seven at Montilivi. Almeria arrive unbeaten in five (DDWWW), with a robust away record and only five goals conceded on the road all season. Statistically, the matchup is finely poised: Girona average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in their last five, while Almeria post 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded over the same span. Both teams are difficult to break down, with season-long goals conceded per game below 1 (Girona 0.92, Almeria 0.83). The first half could be particularly cagey—Girona have conceded just two first-half goals at home all season, and Almeria's away matches average just 0.67 first-half goals. Given the underlying rates and the league context, a draw emerges as the most probable outcome, with both sides likely to prioritise structure over risk. The model projects a 1-1 scoreline as most likely, with neither team likely to dominate for extended periods and the draw probability (34%) marginally higher than either win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form is solid for both: Girona LWWWD, Almeria DDWWW.
Defence
- →Both teams concede under 1 goal per game this season (Girona 0.92, Almeria 0.83).
- →Girona have scored 16 goals in 7 home matches, but Almeria have conceded just 5 in 6 away.
🚩 Girona vs Almeria Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Girona and 4 for Almeria, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Girona and Almeria Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Girona vs Almeria Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gironalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Almerialast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Girona's recent form is mixed, with three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five, but their home output remains strong (16 goals in 7 matches). Almeria are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws) and have shown consistency both home and away, scoring in every match during that run.
Girona vs Almeria — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Girona vs Almeria
The last ten meetings are closely contested, with Girona edging the series (4 wins to Almeria's 3, plus 3 draws). Notably, Girona have scored five or more in two of the last three home H2Hs, but three of the last six have ended level, including two goalless draws.
Girona vs Almeria Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Girona wins
3
Draws
3
Almeria wins
Things to Watch: Girona vs Almeria
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available—value assessment limited.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown occasional attacking spikes (Girona 5-1 win, Almeria 4-2 away win), raising variance risk.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Girona 1–1 AlmeriaThe model forecasts a 1-1 draw, driven by both sides' sub-1.0 goals conceded per game and their strong home/away defensive records. The likeliest way this projection fails is if either attack replicates a recent outlier performance—such as Girona's 5-1 home win or Almeria's 4-2 away victory—raising the ceiling for goals.
Girona vs Almeria: Common Questions
Who will win Girona vs Almeria?
The model gives Girona a 34% chance to win, Almeria 32%, and the draw 34%. Both sides are strong defensively, and the most likely outcome is a draw.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Almeria?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, with each side averaging nearly 2 goals scored per match and both having scored in four of their last five league games.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Girona vs Almeria?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54%. Girona's home matches and Almeria's away games both tend towards low scores, with each team conceding under 1 goal per game this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Girona vs Almeria: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.