Granada CF vs Mallorca Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Granada CF
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Mallorca
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.3/10Granada Strike Late to Sink Mallorca in Segunda División Opener
Granada CF kicked off their Segunda División campaign with a statement 2-0 victory over Mallorca at Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes. Despite conceding the majority of possession (just 39% to Mallorca's 61%), Granada were clinical when it mattered, striking in the 20th and 81st minutes to secure all three points. Mallorca, for all their control and 18 total shots, could not find a way past Raúl Lizoain, whose assured presence in goal anchored a resolute home defence. The match began with Mallorca dictating the tempo, but Granada seized the initiative with an early goal against the run of play. As the visitors pressed for an equaliser, Granada's defensive organisation and sharp counterattacks kept them in check. A late second goal put the result beyond doubt, leaving Mallorca to rue missed opportunities and their inability to convert possession into goals.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
20' — Goal
José Manuel Arnáiz opens the scoring for Granada, finishing off a swift break.
35' — Yellow Card
Mallorca's Alex Sala booked for a tactical foul as Granada threaten on the counter.
49' — Yellow Card
Mallorca's Antonio Raíllo receives a yellow for a late challenge.
67' — Yellow Card
Mallorca's Zito Luvumbo shown yellow for dissent.
75' — Substitution
Granada reinforce midfield to preserve their lead.
81' — Goal
Granada double their advantage with a well-worked team move.
85' — Yellow Card
Granada's Rubén Alcaraz booked for time-wasting.
Granada CF
Granada delivered a disciplined and efficient performance, making the most of their limited possession. They were compact defensively and dangerous on the break, registering 14 shots (6 on target) and capitalising on their chances. The midfield trio worked tirelessly to disrupt Mallorca's rhythm, while the front three provided a constant threat on the counter. The late second goal was a testament to their persistence and tactical discipline.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Mallorca
Mallorca dominated possession and created more chances, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. With 61% possession and 18 shots, they frequently found themselves frustrated by Granada's disciplined back line and the inspired form of Raúl Lizoain. The midfield quartet controlled the ball but struggled to break down the hosts' defensive block, and their single corner reflected a lack of set-piece opportunities.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Granada lined up in a 4-3-3, focusing on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their midfield trio shielded the back four effectively, while the wingers and striker exploited space left by Mallorca's advanced full-backs. The home side's use of width and set pieces (7 corners) kept Mallorca under pressure whenever they ventured forward. In contrast, Mallorca's 4-4-2 prioritised possession and control, but their attacks often stalled in the final third due to Granada's compact shape. Substitutions in the second half saw Granada bolster their midfield, further frustrating Mallorca's attempts to break through. Mallorca's pressing was sporadic, allowing Granada to bypass midfield at times, while their own lack of width and directness limited their threat. Granada's tactical discipline, especially after taking the lead, was key to their victory.
Turning Point
José Manuel Arnáiz's 20th-minute goal gave Granada the platform to execute their defensive game plan and forced Mallorca to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Raúl Lizoain
His commanding performance and crucial saves underpinned Granada's clean sheet and victory.
Granada CF vs Mallorca: Match Preview
Granada arrive off a goalless draw at Oviedo in their league opener, extending a run of four clean sheets in their last five matches—though two of those came in friendlies. Mallorca, meanwhile, started their campaign with a 2-0 home win over Valladolid and have shown attacking promise in pre-season, but their only away data is from friendlies. Both sides sit in the top half after one round, but neither has yet conceded in the league.
Statistically, this fixture profiles as a low-scoring contest. Granada's last five matches average just 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game, while Mallorca's 2.6 scored and 0.6 conceded are skewed by friendly opposition. Both teams' competitive matches this season finished with clean sheets, and the derived stats show a combined 100% clean sheet rate and 0% over 2.5 goals rate in the league. Set-piece and discipline data are limited, but both sides averaged under 1 card per game in recent outings.
The model expects a cautious first half, with a 56% chance of a half-time draw and a 72% probability of under 2.5 goals. With both teams prioritising defensive structure early in the season and neither attack yet proven in league play, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely outcome, with marginally more threat from Mallorca's recent attacking output.
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
34%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Granada CF vs Mallorca Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Granada CF vs Mallorca that most previews miss.
- 1Granada have failed to score in two of their last five matches but have kept four clean sheets in that stretch.
- 2Mallorca's last five matches feature a 13:3 first-half to second-half goal split, suggesting early attacking intent.
- 3Despite seven Granada wins in the last ten head-to-heads, three of the last four meetings have gone over 2.5 goals—contrasting with both teams' current defensive trends.
Who do you think wins: Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Granada CF vs Mallorca(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams opened the league with clean sheets, and last season's head-to-heads plus early season rates point to a low goal environment—model probability for under 2.5 is 0.72.
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Correct Score: 1–1
Stalemate is the single most likely outcome by the model (22%), with both sides showing defensive solidity and limited attacking output in competitive matches so far.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Granada CF vs Mallorca Prediction
Early season numbers suggest a low-scoring, evenly balanced contest between two sides with strong defensive records and limited attacking output in competitive play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Granada have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches (including friendlies and the league opener).
- →Mallorca have averaged 2.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game across their last five matches, but much of that came in friendlies.
- →Both teams kept clean sheets in their opening Segunda División fixtures.
🚩 Granada CF vs Mallorca Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Granada CF and 3.8 for Mallorca, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 49% · Over 10.5: 25%.
How Granada CF and Mallorca Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Granada CF vs Mallorca Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Granada CFlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Mallorcalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Granada are on a run of four clean sheets in five matches, including a goalless draw to start the league campaign. Mallorca have won four of their last five, including a 2-0 league opener, but most of their recent scoring came in friendlies. Both sides have yet to concede in competitive action this season.
Granada CF vs Mallorca — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Granada CF vs Mallorca
Granada have won seven of the last ten meetings with Mallorca, including a 3-2 home victory in their most recent Segunda División clash. However, recent head-to-heads have seen more goals than current form suggests, with three of the last four producing over 2.5 goals.
Granada CF vs Mallorca Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Granada CF wins
1
Draws
2
Mallorca wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Granada CF vs Mallorca
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value edges cannot be calculated. The model's strongest conviction is on under 2.5 goals, which would be a value target if market odds implied a lower probability. Correct score 1-1 is also notably more probable than most single outcomes in this environment.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Granada CF vs Mallorca
- ⚠️Both teams' season sample size is just one competitive match, so underlying rates are not yet robust.
- ⚠️Recent form is inflated by friendlies, which may not reflect true league strength.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Granada CF 1–1 MallorcaA 1-1 draw is the most probable outcome, driven by both teams' strong clean sheet records in competitive play and the lack of established attacking rhythm so far. The single strongest data point is the 0% over 2.5 goals rate for both sides in the league this season. The main risk is that Mallorca's pre-season scoring form translates to a higher goal count than the model expects.
Granada CF vs Mallorca: Common Questions
Who will win Granada CF vs Mallorca?
The model gives Granada a 34% chance of victory, Mallorca a 30% chance, and the draw a 36% probability. With both teams starting the season with clean sheets, a draw is marginally favoured.
Will Granada CF vs Mallorca be under or over 2.5 goals?
There is a 72% probability of under 2.5 goals, based on both sides' defensive records and their 0% over 2.5 rate in league play so far.
Are both teams likely to score in Granada CF vs Mallorca?
The model estimates a 42% chance of both teams scoring, with a 58% probability that at least one side keeps a clean sheet, reflecting the early-season defensive solidity shown by both.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Granada CF vs Mallorca: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.