Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Gremio
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Vasco DA Gama
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.25(+14% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Vasco da Gama Stun Gremio with Late Double in Porto Alegre Thriller
Vasco da Gama produced a dramatic late turnaround to defeat Gremio 2-1 in Porto Alegre, overturning a first-half deficit with two goals in four second-half minutes. Gremio looked on course for victory after Carlos Vinícius put them ahead in the 39th minute, but Vasco’s persistence paid off as F. Colidio and A. Gómez struck in the 76th and 80th minutes respectively to snatch all three points. The hosts edged possession (51%) and fashioned 14 shots, but Vasco were more incisive with 17 attempts and 5 on target. Both sides showed their competitive edge, sharing six yellow cards in a fiercely contested encounter. Ultimately, Vasco’s late surge and clinical finishing proved decisive, leaving Gremio ruing missed opportunities and a lapse in concentration during the closing stages.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
39' — Goal
Carlos Vinícius puts Gremio ahead after a well-worked move.
76' — Goal
F. Colidio levels the match for Vasco with a clinical finish.
80' — Goal
A. Gómez completes the turnaround, giving Vasco a 2-1 lead.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams pick up three yellow cards each in a physical contest.
Gremio
Gremio controlled the tempo for much of the match, especially in the first half, and deservedly took the lead through Carlos Vinícius. Their 4-1-4-1 setup allowed them to press high and create chances, but a lack of ruthlessness in front of goal — with only 4 of their 14 shots on target — ultimately cost them. Defensively, Gremio were largely solid until the final quarter-hour but struggled to contain Vasco’s late offensive push. The hosts’ inability to manage the game after taking the lead, coupled with lapses in concentration, proved costly as they conceded twice in quick succession.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco da Gama delivered a resilient away performance, matching Gremio in possession and outshooting them with 17 attempts. Their 4-1-4-1 system provided defensive solidity and allowed for quick transitions, which became more pronounced as the match wore on. Despite trailing at the break, Vasco remained patient and gradually increased their attacking threat. Their persistence was rewarded with a late double, as F. Colidio and A. Gómez capitalised on Gremio’s defensive frailties to secure a memorable comeback victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides deployed a 4-1-4-1 formation, leading to a midfield battle where neither team could fully dominate. Gremio sought to control possession and press high up the pitch, with F. Krovinović orchestrating play and Carlos Vinícius providing a focal point in attack. Their wide midfielders looked to stretch Vasco’s back line, but clear-cut chances were at a premium. Vasco, meanwhile, were content to absorb pressure and strike on the break, gradually growing into the game. Their tactical discipline was evident, and the introduction of fresh legs in midfield and attack (as indicated by the late goals) allowed them to exploit spaces as Gremio tired. Set pieces and transitions played a key role in shifting momentum late on.
Turning Point
F. Colidio’s equaliser in the 76th minute shifted momentum decisively in Vasco’s favour, paving the way for A. Gómez’s winner just four minutes later.
Man of the Match
A. Gómez
Scored the decisive winning goal and was a constant threat in the final third during Vasco’s late surge.
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama: Match Preview
Gremio and Vasco DA Gama meet with both sides hovering just above the relegation zone, separated by only three points and with nearly identical scoring records (27 goals each in 25 matches). Gremio’s home form (7 wins from 12) has been their lifeline, while Vasco’s away record is winless, though both teams have drawn 7 times this campaign, indicating a tendency to share points when neither can impose themselves.
The statistical matchup is defined by blunt attacks and leaky defences. Gremio concede 1.32 per game (1.17 at home), while Vasco ship 1.83 per away match. However, Vasco’s defensive numbers have improved recently, with just 2 goals conceded in their last 5 matches across all competitions and 3 clean sheets in that span. Both sides average just over 11 shots per game, but Gremio have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and Vasco in 2 of 5. The last 5 meetings have produced just 9 total goals, and both teams trend under 2.5 goals (Gremio 44%, Vasco 56% over 2.5).
Given the lack of attacking punch and the recent defensive tightening, the model expects a cautious, low-scoring contest. The most probable result is a draw, with a 1-1 or 1-0 either way most likely. Set-piece and card rates are average, so little is expected from dead balls. Unless one side capitalises on an early mistake, this match should be decided by fine margins.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama that most previews miss.
- 1Vasco DA Gama have not won a single away match this season (0W, 5D, 7L), conceding 22 in 12 away games.
- 2Gremio have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches despite averaging 11.4 shots per game in that span.
- 3Five of the last ten meetings between these sides have finished under 2.5 goals, with three ending 1-0 to the home team.
Who do you think wins: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.25
The model gives a 35% probability to the draw, higher than the 31% implied by odds of 3.25. Both sides have drawn 7 matches this season and their home/away splits show neither is dominant in this matchup.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 1.87
Only 46% of the model’s simulations produce both teams scoring, and Gremio have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, while Vasco have 3 clean sheets in 5 and a season BTTS rate below 50%.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, tightly contested battle between two sides with below-average attacking output and poor away form. Both Gremio and Vasco DA Gama average just 1.08 goals scored per game this season and neither has won an away match, with Gremio’s home record (7W, 3D, 2L) offset by Vasco’s inability to travel (0W, 5D, 7L, 11:22 goal difference). The draw emerges as the likeliest outcome in a game where neither side’s attack is likely to seize control.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Gremio have won 7 of 12 at home; Vasco have not won in 12 away (5D, 7L).
Attack
- →Both teams average 1.08 goals scored per game this season.
Defence
- →Vasco have conceded 40 goals in 25 matches (1.6 per game), but just 0.4 per game in their last 5.
🚩 Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Gremio and 4.8 for Vasco DA Gama, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Gremio and Vasco DA Gama Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gremiolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasco DA Gamalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Gremio have alternated between wins and losses in their last five, including a 3-1 home victory over Chapecoense but also a 0-1 defeat at Vitoria. Vasco DA Gama arrive unbeaten in three of their last five, with two wins and a recent goalless draw away in continental competition, but their league away form remains poor. Both teams have struggled to find the net consistently, reflected in their identical season scoring rates.
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama
Over the last 10 meetings, Gremio have had the upper hand with 5 wins to Vasco’s 3, and have won three of the last four at home. Low-scoring contests are common, with five matches finishing under 2.5 goals and the 1-0 home win appearing three times. The most recent clash ended 2-1 to Vasco in Rio, but Porto Alegre has been less hospitable for the visitors.
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Gremio wins
2
Draws
3
Vasco DA Gama wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama
The model sees the draw as a value play at odds of 3.25, with a 35% probability versus the 31% implied by the market. There is also a small edge on 'BTTS: No' at 1.91, with the model’s 54% probability just above the market’s implied 52%. No major value on the outright home or away win, as the odds are broadly aligned with the underlying statistics.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is mixed, with small-sample improvements in Vasco’s defence possibly overstating their solidity.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of prediction.
- ⚠️Goal timing splits are volatile; both teams have shown periods of bluntness in attack.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Gremio 1–1 Vasco DA GamaThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, underpinned by both sides’ season-long averages of just 1.08 goals scored per game and a combined 14 draws from 50 matches. The main risk is that Vasco’s recent defensive improvement is a short-term blip, or Gremio’s superior home record tips the balance late on.
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama: Common Questions
Who will win Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model gives Gremio a 38% chance to win, the draw a 35% probability, and Vasco DA Gama a 27% chance. With both teams struggling for attacking consistency and neither side winning away all season, the draw is marginally favoured.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Both teams to score is rated at 46% by the model, with 'no' the more likely outcome (54%). Gremio have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and Vasco in 2 of 5, while both have posted recent clean sheets.
Is this likely to be a high-scoring match (over 2.5 goals)?
The probability of over 2.5 goals is just 43%, with under 2.5 the more likely result at 57%. Both teams average just over a goal per game and recent head-to-heads have tended to be low scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.