Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Ham-Kam
AI Predicted Score
2 - 2
Fredrikstad
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.62(+10% edge)
Recommended Bets: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad: Match Preview
Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad arrive at Briskeby Arena locked on 30 points in the lower reaches of the Eliteserien, each desperate to put daylight between themselves and the relegation zone. Ham-Kam's recent form is marginally better (WDWLL), capped by a commanding 3-0 win over Sarpsborg 08, while Fredrikstad limp in with just one win from five and a leaky defence exposed in a 1-5 loss at Molde. Both clubs have been unpredictable, but with the season winding down, motivation should be high.
The underlying numbers suggest a game ripe for goals. Ham-Kam's home matches see an average of 3.38 goals, with 77% going over 2.5, and they've scored seven of their last eight goals in the second half. Fredrikstad's away record is poor defensively (29 conceded in 13), and they've failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Both teams average over a goal per game recently, but their defensive records are among the league's worst. Set pieces and discipline are unlikely to be decisive, with both sides near the league average for corners and cards.
The model expects a high-scoring, open affair, with neither side able to shut the door at the back. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score rate as the best value, given the attacking output and defensive frailty on display. A 2-2 draw is marginally favoured, with the market slightly underestimating the likelihood of another goal-laden stalemate.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad
The sharpest value lies with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, where the model's probabilities (68% and 70%) outstrip the market's implied odds by 10% and 7% respectively. The 1x2 market is priced tightly, but the draw carries a small edge given the frequency of stalemates in recent H2H and the teams' similar profiles.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.62
Both sides average over 2.5 goals in 77% (Ham-Kam) and 58% (Fredrikstad) of league matches, and their last five games combine for 17 goals conceded; the model's 68% probability gives a 10% edge over the market price.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.51
Both teams have scored in 4 of Fredrikstad's last 5 and 2 of Ham-Kam's last 5, with both averaging over a goal per game and defensive records among the league's worst; the model sees BTTS at 70%.
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Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad that most previews miss.
- 1Ham-Kam's last five league games have averaged 3.0 total goals, but they've scored only once before half-time in that span.
- 2Fredrikstad have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five away matches.
- 3Three of the last four H2H meetings have ended in draws, with both teams scoring in two of those.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS: Yes
67%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad Prediction
Bookmakers rate this as a near pick'em, but the data points to goals and volatility rather than a clear favourite. Both Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad sit on 30 points, separated only by goal difference and recent form, with Ham-Kam's home record (6W, 2D, 5L) only marginally better than Fredrikstad's away (3W, 2D, 8L). Recent results for both sides have been erratic, with heavy defeats interspersed with high-scoring draws and the occasional emphatic win. The tactical battle is likely to be defined by two leaky defences: Ham-Kam concede 2.04 goals per game (season), while Fredrikstad ship 1.77, and neither side keeps clean sheets regularly (Ham-Kam 19%, Fredrikstad 12%). Both teams have shown attacking intent lately—Ham-Kam's 1.4 goals per game (last 5) and Fredrikstad's 2.0—but their defensive frailties are exposed by a combined 17 goals conceded in their last five league matches. Set pieces could play a role: Ham-Kam average 3.8 corners per game recently, Fredrikstad 3.2, but neither side stands out for set-piece threat or discipline, with cards per game hovering around the league average. With both teams needing points to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap, expect a wide-open contest. The model projects a 2-2 draw as most likely, driven by the consistently high over 2.5 goal rates (Ham-Kam 77%, Fredrikstad 58%) and the lack of defensive resilience. The market slightly underrates the probability of goals, making over 2.5 and BTTS the standout value angles.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Ham-Kam's home matches average 3.38 goals, with 77% finishing over 2.5 goals.
- →Head-to-head has produced draws in three of the last four meetings, with both teams scoring in two.
Defence
- →Fredrikstad have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, conceding 13 goals in that span.
🚩 Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Ham-Kam and 4.8 for Fredrikstad, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Ham-Kamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fredrikstadlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ham-Kam have steadied after a rough patch, picking up seven points from their last four in all competitions, including a 3-0 home win and an away cup upset at Rosenborg. Fredrikstad, by contrast, are winless in their last four league matches and have conceded 12 goals in that span, with only a cup win at lower-league Ranheim offering respite.
Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 76.92% of games this season
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning five of the last ten and three of the last five away to Ham-Kam. However, the last four league meetings have seen three draws, all low-scoring, suggesting a tendency for these sides to cancel each other out when it matters.
Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Ham-Kam wins
3
Draws
5
Fredrikstad wins
Things to Watch: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent, with erratic recent form and fluctuating performance levels.
- ⚠️Neither side has major injury concerns, but final lineups could still swing the balance.
- ⚠️Market pricing is tight, so small edges could be eroded by late team news or motivation shifts.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ham-Kam 2–2 FredrikstadThe model projects a 2-2 draw, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score as the strongest statistical angles—driven by Ham-Kam's 77% over 2.5 rate and Fredrikstad's defensive collapse on the road. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if either attack misfires or one side sits deep to protect a point, but recent trends suggest another high-scoring, error-prone contest.
Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad: Common Questions
Who will win Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
The model gives Fredrikstad a slight edge (37%) over Ham-Kam (34%), with a draw close behind at 29%. Both teams are inconsistent and closely matched in the table, so a high-scoring draw is the likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Yes is favoured at 70% probability, as both teams have scored and conceded freely in recent matches—Ham-Kam's last five average 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Fredrikstad 2.0 scored and 3.0 conceded.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68%, higher than the implied odds (62%), with both teams featuring in high-scoring games all season—Ham-Kam's matches go over 2.5 at a league-high 77% rate.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.