Tromso vs Viking Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Tromso
AI Predicted Score
1 - 3
Viking
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Viking Win
@ 1.84
Recommended Bets: Tromso vs Viking
Tromso vs Viking: Match Preview
Tromso enter this fixture on a poor run, having lost three consecutive league matches and conceding eight goals in the process. Their home form remains respectable (7-4-2), but a current streak of two straight defeats and a lack of clean sheets in their last five highlight defensive vulnerabilities. Viking, meanwhile, top the table with 20 wins from 26 and have scored 69 goals—by far the league’s best attacking record—while coming off back-to-back wins by three-goal margins.
Statistically, this is a clash between a high-volume attack and a defence trending downward. Viking average 17.2 shots and 6.2 shots on target per game over their last five, while Tromso have allowed 2.4 goals per match in that span. Both sides are involved in matches with frequent goals: Viking’s over 2.5 rate is 77%, Tromso’s 50%, and both have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Viking’s away defence is relatively tight (13 conceded in 13), but their attack travels well, scoring 20 in those matches. Set-piece and discipline data suggest a moderately high card count (combined last-5 average: 3.2 yellows per game) and above-average corners (Viking 6.2, Tromso 2.6 per game recently).
The model expects Viking’s attacking rates to overwhelm Tromso’s declining defensive structure, projecting a high probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. While Tromso’s home record offers some resistance, Viking’s consistent output—both in terms of xG and actual goals—makes them clear favourites, with a 61% win probability and a predicted 3-1 scoreline. The most plausible deviation is if Tromso’s home defence regresses positively, limiting Viking’s open-play chances.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 2.40
Over 2.5 Goals
71%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 1-3
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Tromso vs Viking Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Tromso vs Viking that most previews miss.
- 1Viking have scored at least twice in 11 of their last 13 away league matches.
- 2BTTS has landed in 9 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these sides.
- 3Viking’s matches average 3.69 goals per game, the highest in the division.
Who do you think wins: Tromso vs Viking?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Tromso vs Viking(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.44
Both sides are involved in high-scoring matches—Viking's games average 3.69 goals and Tromso's 3.19—while 77% of Viking's matches and 50% of Tromso's have gone over 2.5 goals this season.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.44
BTTS has landed in all of Viking's last five and in three of Tromso's last five; both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league matches.
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Match Result: Viking Win@ 1.84
Viking have won 20 of 26 league matches (77%) and are the league's top scorers, while Tromso have lost three straight and have a negative recent goal difference.
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More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Tromso vs Viking Prediction
Viking's relentless attack and league-leading away record face a Tromso side struggling for defensive stability, with the underlying rates pointing to another high-scoring contest in Tromso.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Viking average 2.65 goals scored per game and 1.04 conceded, with 77% of their matches over 2.5 goals.
- →Tromso's home record is solid (7-4-2), but they have conceded 2+ in three of their last five overall.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head: Viking have won five of the last ten meetings, including a 3-1 home win less than a month ago.
🚩 Tromso vs Viking Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Tromso and 4.8 for Viking, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Tromso and Viking Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Tromso vs Viking Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Tromsolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vikinglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tromso’s recent form is poor, with three straight league defeats and just one win in their last five matches. They have conceded 12 goals in their last five and failed to score in two of those. Viking, by contrast, have won four of their last five league games, scoring 18 goals in that stretch and showing no signs of slowing down.
Tromso vs Viking — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 76.92% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Tromso vs Viking
Viking have the upper hand in the head-to-head, winning five of the last ten meetings and scoring at least twice in four of the last six. BTTS is a recurring theme, landing in nine of the last ten encounters, and the last three league matches have all seen at least three goals.
Tromso vs Viking Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Tromso wins
4
Draws
5
Viking wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Tromso vs Viking
Model probabilities are closely aligned with bookmaker odds across major markets, with the away win offering a marginal positive expected value at current prices. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS are both highly likely but already priced accordingly, so value is thin unless odds drift before kickoff.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Tromso vs Viking
- ⚠️Tromso's home defensive numbers are stronger than their overall recent form, which could suppress Viking's output.
- ⚠️Viking have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, so an early Tromso goal could disrupt the expected game script.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed and late changes could impact attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Tromso 1–3 VikingViking are projected to win 3-1, underpinned by their league-leading 2.65 goals per game and Tromso’s recent defensive frailty (2.4 conceded per match in the last five). The strongest single data point is Viking’s 77% over 2.5 goals rate. However, if Tromso rediscover their early-season defensive solidity at home, the match could be much tighter and lower-scoring than the model expects.
Tromso vs Viking: Common Questions
Who will win Tromso vs Viking?
Viking have a 61% probability of winning away, based on their 20 wins from 26 matches and Tromso’s recent three-game losing streak. Tromso’s win probability is just 17%, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Viking?
There’s a 68% probability of both teams scoring, with BTTS landing in all of Viking’s last five and three of Tromso’s last five matches, and neither side keeping a clean sheet in that span.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet in Tromso vs Viking?
The model gives a 72% probability for over 2.5 goals, reflecting Viking’s 77% over 2.5 rate and Tromso’s recent defensive struggles. However, bookmaker odds imply a similar probability, so value is limited.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Tromso vs Viking: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.