Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
Havelse
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
FC Ingolstadt 04
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: FC Ingolstadt 04 Win
Recommended Bets: Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04: Match Preview
Havelse enter this clash rooted to the foot of the 3. Liga, still searching for their second win after ten rounds. Their recent form is bleak, with a 'DDLLL' string and a run of six league matches without a victory. Ingolstadt, in contrast, have stabilised after a shaky patch, winning their last two and climbing to ninth, fuelled by an away record that ranks among the league's best (W3 D1 L1).
The statistical shape of this fixture is clear: Havelse's defence is the league's softest, leaking 2.3 goals per game and failing to keep a single clean sheet. Their home matches are chaotic, averaging 4.4 goals, while Ingolstadt's away defence is among the stingiest (0.8 conceded per away game). Ingolstadt average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five, but their underlying away numbers (7 scored, 4 conceded in five) point to a side well suited to exploiting Havelse's vulnerabilities. Notably, Havelse have scored in all but one of their last five, but have not kept the opposition out since the campaign began.
Expect Ingolstadt to dictate the tempo, particularly after the break—Havelse have conceded heavily in second halves and are prone to collapse under sustained pressure. The model projects a high-probability away win, with a 1-2 scoreline the likeliest outcome, and a strong lean to over 2.5 goals given both teams' season-long goal rates and Havelse's wild home matches.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.90
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 that most previews miss.
- 1Havelse's home games average 4.4 goals (10 scored, 12 conceded in 5 matches)—the highest in the league.
- 2Ingolstadt have kept two clean sheets in their last five and conceded just four goals in five away games.
- 3Both previous H2H meetings produced 5+ goals, with Ingolstadt scoring 9 times across those two matches.
Who do you think wins: Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: FC Ingolstadt 04 Win
FC Ingolstadt 04 have taken 10 points from 5 away games (W3 D1 L1) and face a Havelse side with the league's worst defensive record (2.3 conceded per game, 0% clean sheets). The away win probability is modelled at 52%, driven by the home side's chronic defensive issues and Ingolstadt's strong away output.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Havelse matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of league games, with an average of 3.6 total goals per match. Ingolstadt's away defence is solid (0.8 conceded per away game), but Havelse's attacking output at home (2.0 scored per game) and porous defence suggest a high goal environment.
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More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Prediction
This fixture pits bottom-placed Havelse, winless in their last five league outings, against a FC Ingolstadt 04 side who have rediscovered form with back-to-back victories. Havelse have collected just six points from ten matches, conceding a league-high 23 goals, while Ingolstadt sit mid-table but boast one of the division's best away records (three wins from five). Statistically, the matchup is defined by Havelse's defensive frailty and Ingolstadt's efficiency on the road. Havelse's home games average 4.4 goals (10 scored, 12 conceded in five), and they have yet to keep a clean sheet all season. Ingolstadt, meanwhile, concede just 0.8 per away match and have found the net seven times in five road trips. Both teams average 1.3 goals scored per game over the season, but Havelse's 2.3 conceded per match exposes a major imbalance. The model expects Ingolstadt to control the game, exploiting Havelse's defensive gaps, particularly after half-time—Havelse have conceded three or more in three of their last five. While Havelse's attack has shown flashes at home, their inability to contain opposition forwards points to a likely away win in a match with above-average goal expectancy.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Havelse have conceded 23 goals in 10 league matches (2.3 per game), worst in the division.
- →FC Ingolstadt 04 have won three of five away games, conceding just four goals on their travels.
Match Context
- →80% of Havelse's league matches have featured over 2.5 goals.
🚩 Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Havelse and 5.4 for FC Ingolstadt 04, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Havelse and FC Ingolstadt 04 Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Havelselast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FC Ingolstadt 04last 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Havelse are mired in a six-match winless run, with a form string of 'DDLLL' and a defence that has not kept a clean sheet all season. Ingolstadt, meanwhile, have bounced back from three straight defeats with consecutive wins, including a 3-0 away triumph at Waldhof Mannheim, and now sit comfortably mid-table.
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 80% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Ingolstadt have dominated the short head-to-head history, winning both previous meetings and scoring nine goals in the process. The most recent encounter saw Havelse fall 2-6 at home, underlining the visitors' attacking threat in this matchup.
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Havelse wins
0
Draws
2
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins
Things to Watch: Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available—value and expected value calculations are not possible.
- ⚠️Sample size for H2H is very limited (2 matches), so historical dominance may be overstated.
- ⚠️Both sides have moderate attacking output (1.3 goals per game each), so a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out if Ingolstadt's away defence holds.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Havelse 1–2 FC Ingolstadt 04A 2-1 away win for Ingolstadt is the model's call, underpinned by Havelse's league-worst defensive rate (2.3 conceded per game) and Ingolstadt's strong away record (three wins, four goals conceded in five). The main risk is that Ingolstadt's attack, which averages just 1.3 per game, fails to capitalise on Havelse's frailties, opening the door to a high-scoring draw.
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04: Common Questions
Who will win Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
The model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 52% chance of victory, with Havelse at 19% and the draw at 29%. Ingolstadt's away form (three wins in five) and Havelse's defensive issues make the visitors clear statistical favourites.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Havelse vs Ingolstadt?
There's a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals, driven by Havelse's 80% over 2.5 rate and their home matches averaging 4.4 goals. Both previous head-to-heads also saw five or more goals.
Is both teams to score likely in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, as Havelse have scored in four of their last five and Ingolstadt have netted in four of five away games. However, Ingolstadt's away defence is relatively strong, so the 'no' remains a live possibility.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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