MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
MSV Duisburg
AI Predicted Score
3 - 1
Stuttgart II
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II: Match Preview
Duisburg come into this clash sitting top of the 3. Liga with 25 points from 10 matches, riding a five-match unbeaten run (DWWWW) and boasting the league's most potent attack. Their home record is formidable, with four wins and a draw from five, and they have scored at least once in every league fixture. Stuttgart II, currently seventh, have stabilised after a patchy start and are unbeaten in their last five competitive matches (WWDDD), but their overall defensive record remains a concern.
The matchup is shaped by Duisburg's relentless attack (2.7 goals per game, 16.6 shots, 6.6 on target in the last five) against a Stuttgart II side conceding 1.8 per game and allowing high shot volumes. Stuttgart II's away record is respectable (3W 1D 2L, 9:8 GF:GA), but their clean sheet rate is just 10%, and they average just 2.4 shots on target per game in their last five. Both teams have seen BTTS in the majority of recent matches, and Duisburg's games have gone over 2.5 goals 90% of the time this season.
Statistically, the model expects Duisburg's attacking efficiency to overwhelm Stuttgart II's shaky defence, especially in the first half, where Duisburg have scored seven of their last 13 goals. Stuttgart II's ability to contribute on the scoresheet keeps BTTS and over 2.5 as strong probabilities, but Duisburg's superior firepower and home advantage make them clear favourites.
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Expected goals · model says 2.40
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
71%
BTTS: Yes
65%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II that most previews miss.
- 1Duisburg's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 9 of 10 league games (90%), the highest in the division.
- 2Stuttgart II have managed just one clean sheet in 10 league fixtures (10%), conceding at least once in every away match.
- 3Duisburg have scored first in 8 of their 10 league matches, including four of five at home.
Who do you think wins: MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II?
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Where the Model Sees Value: MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have a high over 2.5 rate (Duisburg 90%, Stuttgart II 70%), and their combined season scoring/conceding averages point to a goal-rich environment.
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Match Result: MSV Duisburg Win
Duisburg's home record (4W 1D 0L, 12:4 GF:GA) and league-leading attack (2.7 goals/game) give them a clear edge over a Stuttgart II side with only a 10% clean sheet rate.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 9 of Duisburg's 10 matches and 7 of Stuttgart II's 10, with both failing to keep clean sheets consistently.
More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II Prediction
MSV Duisburg's prolific attack and near-perfect home form set the statistical tone for this fixture, while Stuttgart II's open style and leaky defence suggest a high-scoring contest is likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have scored in all of Duisburg's last five matches and four of Stuttgart II's last five.
Attack
- →Duisburg's 2.7 goals per game is the highest in the league.
Defence
- →Stuttgart II have conceded in 90% of their matches and keep clean sheets just 10% of the time.
🚩 MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for MSV Duisburg and 3.4 for Stuttgart II, for an expected total of 7.9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 39% · Over 10.5: 17%.
How MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
MSV Duisburglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stuttgart IIlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Duisburg are in commanding form, unbeaten in five and leading the league with eight wins from ten. Their attack has been relentless, averaging 2.8 goals in the last five and scoring in every match. Stuttgart II have improved recently with two wins and three draws in their last five, but their defensive record remains patchy.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 90% of games this season
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
What History Says: MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II
Duisburg are unbeaten in six meetings with Stuttgart II, winning three and drawing three. The most recent Duisburg home fixture ended 2-1 in their favour, and Stuttgart II have never won away at Duisburg in this period.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
3
MSV Duisburg wins
3
Draws
0
Stuttgart II wins
Things to Watch: MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edge can be calculated.
- ⚠️Stuttgart II's recent away form (3W 1D 2L) is above their overall average, adding some uncertainty.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
MSV Duisburg 3–1 Stuttgart IIThe model projects a 3-1 win for Duisburg, driven by their league-best scoring rate and Stuttgart II's defensive frailties. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Stuttgart II convert a high share of limited chances or Duisburg's attack underperforms against the run of play.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II: Common Questions
Who will win MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II?
MSV Duisburg are strong favourites with a 62% model probability, reflecting their unbeaten home record and 2.7 goals per game average. Stuttgart II's away form is decent, but their defensive record leaves them as underdogs (16% win probability).
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Duisburg vs Stuttgart II?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 72%, supported by Duisburg's 90% over 2.5 rate this season and both teams' tendency to concede regularly.
Is both teams to score (BTTS) likely in this match?
BTTS is rated at 66% probability, as Duisburg have seen both teams score in all of their last five matches and Stuttgart II in four of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.