Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Heart Of Midlothian
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
ST Johnstone
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.2/10Hearts Edge St Johnstone in Tight Tynecastle Contest
Heart Of Midlothian secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over St Johnstone at Tynecastle Park in a match defined by early dominance and a spirited second-half response from the visitors. Hearts struck twice in the first half—first through J. Wilson in the 9th minute and then Cláudio Braga in the 39th—to take a commanding lead into the break. St Johnstone, however, responded with renewed energy after halftime, pulling a goal back through R. Paton just three minutes into the second period. Despite St Johnstone edging possession with 52% and rallying late, Hearts' defensive organization and attacking intent—evidenced by 16 shots and 8 corners—proved decisive. The hosts weathered the visitors' pressure, particularly after conceding early in the second half, and held on for three valuable Premiership points. Both sides played with discipline, as the match concluded without a single booking.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
Key Moments
9' — Goal
J. Wilson finishes a flowing Hearts move to open the scoring.
39' — Goal
Cláudio Braga doubles the lead for Hearts after sustained pressure.
48' — Goal
R. Paton pulls one back for St Johnstone, reigniting the contest.
Heart Of Midlothian
Hearts started brightly, asserting themselves with high pressing and incisive play in the final third. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to create numerous chances, resulting in 16 total shots and 7 on target. The midfield duo of T. Magnússon and L. Mendy anchored possession and allowed the creative trio behind J. Wilson to flourish. After building a two-goal cushion, the hosts were forced onto the back foot in the second half but defended resolutely, conceding only once and maintaining composure under pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ST Johnstone
St Johnstone grew into the game after a sluggish start, struggling to contain Hearts' early attacking threat. Their 4-4-2 setup initially left them exposed, but adjustments at halftime saw them control more of the ball and create better chances. R. Paton's goal in the 48th minute gave them hope, and they finished with 52% possession and 4 shots on target from 9 attempts. Despite increased pressure in the second half, they could not find an equalizer, lacking a cutting edge in the final third.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hearts set up in a 4-2-3-1, using the double pivot of Magnússon and Mendy to shield the back four and launch attacks through their advanced midfielders. Their early pressing forced St Johnstone into mistakes, and their use of width was evident in the number of corners won. St Johnstone's 4-4-2 struggled in the first half to cope with Hearts' numbers in midfield, but after the break, they pushed their wide midfielders higher and enjoyed more of the ball. Both teams maintained their base formations throughout, with tactical tweaks rather than wholesale changes, and neither side resorted to reckless challenges, as reflected by the absence of cards.
Turning Point
Cláudio Braga's 39th-minute goal gave Hearts a crucial two-goal cushion, ultimately proving decisive as St Johnstone's second-half surge fell just short.
Man of the Match
J. Wilson
Set the tone with an early goal and led the line with tireless movement and pressing.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone: Match Preview
Heart of Midlothian approach this Premiership clash sitting fourth after two rounds, buoyed by a 4-0 home win over Dundee United and a strong run of results across all competitions. Their recent form string (DWDWL) includes high-scoring affairs and a notable 6-2 League Cup victory, suggesting attacking confidence. St Johnstone, sixth in the early table, have split their opening league matches, beating Kilmarnock 4-3 at home but losing 1-0 away to St Mirren, and have struggled for consistency in front of goal on their travels.
The statistical matchup is defined by Hearts' prolific home attack against a St Johnstone side with a patchy away record. Hearts average 2.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over their last five matches, but their league home defence has yet to be breached. St Johnstone's away output is less convincing, with just 1.6 shots on target per game recently and no goals in their last two away fixtures. The head-to-head record is stark: Hearts have won the last 10 meetings, often by narrow margins, and have not conceded more than once at home to St Johnstone in that span. Set piece and discipline data suggest a moderate card count and corners total, with both sides averaging under 3 cards and 3 corners per match in recent outings.
The model projects a moderate-to-high goal environment, with Hearts' attacking rates and historical dominance at Tynecastle tipping the balance. The likeliest scenario is Hearts scoring first and controlling possession, with St Johnstone reliant on counter-attacks and set pieces for their openings. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 to the hosts, reflecting Hearts' edge in both recent output and the long-term matchup, though early-season volatility and possible European rotation add a degree of uncertainty.
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Expected goals · model says 1.95
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone that most previews miss.
- 1Hearts have scored 13 goals in their last five matches across all competitions, averaging 2.6 per game.
- 2St Johnstone have failed to score in two of their last three away matches, including their only league trip this season.
- 3All of the last 10 head-to-heads have ended in Hearts' favour, with seven decided by a single-goal margin.
Who do you think wins: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
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The Case For This Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Prediction
Heart of Midlothian enter this fixture with a sharp home scoring rate, having averaged 2.5 goals per league match this season and netting four without reply in their only home league outing. St Johnstone, meanwhile, have failed to score in two of their last five away matches and have not kept a clean sheet in the league. The statistical shape of this contest points to a moderate goal environment, with Hearts' home attack likely to test a St Johnstone defence that has conceded in every away league fixture so far.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →St Johnstone have averaged only 1.6 shots on target per game in their last five outings.
Defence
- →Hearts' last five matches average 5.0 total goals per game, but their league home defence is yet to concede.
Match Context
- →Hearts have won all of the last 10 head-to-head meetings against St Johnstone.
🚩 Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.7 corners for Heart Of Midlothian and 3.8 for ST Johnstone, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 61% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Heart Of Midlothian and ST Johnstone Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Heart Of Midlothianlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Johnstonelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hearts arrive with momentum, unbeaten in four of their last five and averaging nearly three goals per match in that span. Their only league home fixture was a dominant 4-0 win. St Johnstone's form is mixed, alternating wins and losses, and their away output has been limited, with no goals scored in their last two trips.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone
The head-to-head record is one-sided: Hearts have won all of the last 10 meetings with St Johnstone, including five straight at Tynecastle. Most matches have been close, with seven decided by a single goal, but St Johnstone have not managed a win in this fixture since at least 2022.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
10
Heart Of Midlothian wins
0
Draws
0
ST Johnstone wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone
With no bookmaker odds available, value analysis is not possible for this fixture. If odds become available, the model would look for discrepancies in the home win and over 2.5 goals markets, given the strong statistical edge for Hearts and the high recent goal averages.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone
- ⚠️Small league sample size (two matches) may exaggerate early season trends.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value or edge calculations are possible.
- ⚠️Recent European fixtures for Hearts may affect rotation or fatigue, but no injuries reported.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Heart Of Midlothian 2–1 ST JohnstoneThe statistical edge lies firmly with Heart of Midlothian, whose home scoring rate and perfect head-to-head record against St Johnstone underpin a 2-1 prediction. The single strongest data point is Hearts' 10-match winning streak in this fixture, supported by a home attack averaging 2.5 goals per league game. The main risk to this call is early-season unpredictability or Hearts' potential squad rotation after European commitments.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone: Common Questions
Who will win Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone?
Heart of Midlothian are favoured with a 54% model probability of victory, compared to 18% for St Johnstone and 28% for the draw. This is supported by Hearts' 10-match winning streak in this fixture and their strong home scoring rates.
Will both teams score in Hearts vs St Johnstone?
The model gives a 52% probability for both teams to score, reflecting Hearts' tendency to concede in open matches (2.2 goals conceded per last five) and St Johnstone's inconsistent attack. Recent head-to-heads have often seen both sides find the net.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Hearts vs St Johnstone?
There is a 61% model probability for over 2.5 goals, with Hearts' last five averaging 5.0 total goals and St Johnstone involved in a 4-3 league match already this season. However, St Johnstone's away attack has been less reliable, so some caution is warranted.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Resources
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Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Stats
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Model Accuracy
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