Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Predictions
Super League · China
Henan Jianye
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Beijing Guoan
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Beijing Guoan Win
Recommended Bets: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan: Match Preview
Henan Jianye approach this fixture desperate to halt a six-match winless run that has seen them slip to 13th in the table. Their recent form string of LDDDD underlines a side struggling to turn possession into points, with the latest setback a 0-1 home defeat to Tianjin Teda. In contrast, Beijing Guoan are riding a wave of momentum, unbeaten in five and fresh off three straight victories, including a 3-0 away demolition of Qingdao Jonoon that showcased their attacking depth.
The tactical matchup pits Henan's ball-dominant but blunt attack (16 shots, 62% possession per game in the last five) against a Beijing Guoan side that has rediscovered defensive solidity, conceding just twice in five matches. While Henan generate plenty of corners (6.8 per game), their conversion rate remains poor. Guoan's own attacking efficiency is notable: 2.0 goals per game recently, with threats arriving from multiple sources and a tendency to strike early (five first-half goals in their last five). Discipline could be a factor, with Henan averaging two yellow cards per match.
Given the form trajectories, the model expects Beijing Guoan to impose themselves, particularly if they score first. Henan's shot volume suggests they will create opportunities, but unless their finishing improves, Guoan's confidence and clinical edge should prove decisive. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, with the main risk being Henan finally converting their chances and holding out for a draw.
How Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Beijing Guoanlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Beijing Guoan are the form side in the league, unbeaten in their last five and on a three-match winning streak that includes a 3-0 away win and a Champions League victory. Henan Jianye, conversely, have failed to win any of their last six, drawing four before a narrow home defeat last time out. The visitors' momentum is underlined by their defensive improvement and clinical finishing, while Henan's struggles are rooted in profligacy despite dominating possession.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 62% avg
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan that most previews miss.
- 1Beijing Guoan have scored in every first half across their last five matches, totalling five goals before the break.
- 2Henan Jianye have drawn four of their last five, but have failed to score more than once in any of those games.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have seen both teams find the net, with only one ending in a draw.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.90
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Prediction
Beijing Guoan's surge in form has them flying into Zhengzhou, while Henan Jianye are mired in a winless rut and struggling for attacking spark. The visitors' recent results—three straight wins, including a commanding 3-0 away victory at Qingdao Jonoon—stand in stark contrast to Henan's run of four consecutive draws followed by a limp home defeat. With both sides' league positions reflecting their current trajectories, the momentum is firmly with the capital club. Statistically, Beijing Guoan's attack is purring, averaging 2 goals per game over the last five and spreading their threat across both halves. Henan, by contrast, have managed just 0.8 goals per game in the same period despite dominating possession (62.2% average) and generating a healthy 16 shots per match. The hosts' inability to convert territorial dominance into goals is compounded by a defence that has kept just one clean sheet in five. Set pieces could play a role, with Henan averaging nearly 7 corners per game, but Guoan's defensive organisation has been robust, conceding only twice in their last five. The model expects Beijing Guoan's momentum and clinical edge to tell, projecting a 2-1 away win. Henan's shot volume and home crowd may keep them in the contest, but unless they can break their attacking malaise, Guoan's efficiency and confidence should see them through. The likeliest risk is Henan finally converting their chances and forcing a draw, but the form lines point to the visitors.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last five (WWWDW) and have won three in a row, scoring 2.0 goals per game in that stretch.
Defence
- →Henan Jianye are winless in their last six (LDDDDD), with only one clean sheet and two games without scoring in the last five.
- →Beijing Guoan's away record is strong (6W, 6D, 2L), and they have conceded just 0.4 goals per game in their last five in all competitions.
Where the Model Sees Value: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Beijing Guoan Win
Beijing Guoan arrive on a three-match winning streak and have averaged 2 goals scored with just 0.4 conceded over their last five, while Henan Jianye are winless in six and have failed to score in two of their last five. The away side's momentum and attacking edge outweigh Henan's home advantage.
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BTTS: Yes
Henan have seen both teams score in three of their last five, and Beijing Guoan's away defence, while improved, still concedes chances. Recent H2Hs have also produced goals at both ends.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' season over 2.5 goal rates are above 50%, and Beijing Guoan's last five have averaged 2.4 total goals per game, with Henan's defence leaking late.
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More Super League Predictions
🚩 Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Henan Jianye and 4.5 for Beijing Guoan, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
What History Says: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
The last ten meetings between these sides have been closely contested, with Beijing Guoan holding a narrow 5-4 edge and only one draw. Henan have won the last two league encounters, including a 2-1 away win earlier this season, but Guoan have generally had the upper hand, especially away from home. Both teams have found the net in six of the last ten clashes, suggesting goals at both ends are common.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Henan Jianye wins
1
Draws
5
Beijing Guoan wins
Things to Watch: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
- ⚠️Henan's high shot and possession numbers suggest a potential for improvement if finishing improves.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value edges are illustrative only.
- ⚠️Guoan's low recent shot volume (7.6 per game) is a concern if they regress to the mean.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Henan Jianye 1–2 Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan's current momentum—three straight wins, 2.0 goals per game, and just 0.4 conceded in their last five—makes them clear favourites to take the points in Zhengzhou. The strongest data point is Henan's inability to turn high possession and shot volume into goals, evidenced by just one goal in their last two home matches. The main threat to this prediction is Henan finally finding their finishing boots and capitalising on Guoan's relatively low recent shot count, potentially forcing a draw.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan: Common Questions
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
The model gives Beijing Guoan a 53% chance of victory, with Henan Jianye at 18% and the draw at 29%. Guoan's recent form—three straight wins and just two goals conceded in their last five—makes them favourites.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
There's a 54% probability that both teams will score, supported by Henan's tendency to concede and Guoan's strong attack, but also by Henan's high shot volume despite recent struggles in front of goal.
Can Beijing Guoan's winning streak continue?
With momentum firmly on their side and a recent average of 2.0 goals scored per game, Beijing Guoan are well placed to extend their three-match winning run, especially given Henan's winless streak and lack of cutting edge.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.