Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing Predictions
Super League · China
Chengdu Better City
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Dalian Zhixing
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Chengdu Better City Win
Recommended Bets: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing: Match Preview
Chengdu Better City enter this fixture atop the Super League, boasting 52 points from 27 matches and an imposing home record of eight wins from fourteen. Dalian Zhixing, second on 43 points, have closed the gap with a run of three straight wins and are unbeaten in their last five, but their away form remains patchy with seven losses from fourteen on the road. Both sides are in the title race, but Chengdu's nine-point advantage and home strength put them in the driving seat.
Statistically, this match projects as high-scoring. Chengdu average 2.21 goals scored and just 1.07 conceded at home, while Dalian's away matches see 1.36 scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Recent form sees both teams averaging 1.8 goals per game over the last five, and Dalian's last three away league matches have all featured at least two goals. The over 2.5 goals rate for both teams is above 50% on the season, and BTTS has landed in three of Chengdu's last five.
The model expects Chengdu's attack to make the difference, particularly given Dalian's defensive record away from home. While Dalian's recent run and attacking threat—highlighted by a 4-0 away win last time out—cannot be dismissed, Chengdu's underlying rates and home advantage tip the balance. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, with the greatest risk coming from Dalian's improved defensive showings in recent weeks.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing that most previews miss.
- 1Dalian Zhixing have conceded 26 goals in 14 away games, the worst defensive away record among the league's top six.
- 2Chengdu Better City have kept just one clean sheet in their last five matches, despite leading the league.
- 3The last two Chengdu home wins over Dalian both finished 2-0, but Dalian have scored in every away league match since July.
Who do you think wins: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Chengdu Better City Win
Chengdu Better City average 2.21 goals scored and only 1.07 conceded per home game, while Dalian Zhixing have lost 7 of 14 away matches and concede 1.86 per away outing. The home side's underlying rates and strong home record give them the edge.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' season-long over 2.5 rates are above 50% (Chengdu 51.85%, Dalian 59.26%), and recent form shows each averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over the last five.
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BTTS: Yes
Chengdu have kept just one clean sheet in their last five, and Dalian have failed to score in only two away games all season, with both averaging over 1.5 goals scored per match.
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction
This is a meeting of the Super League's top two, with Chengdu Better City holding a nine-point lead and a markedly superior home record. Dalian Zhixing arrive in strong recent form but have struggled for consistency away from home, conceding nearly two goals per away fixture. The statistical shape points to a match with above-average goal expectancy, driven by both sides' attacking output and Dalian's defensive record on the road.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Chengdu Better City's home scoring rate of 2.21 goals per game is among the league's best.
- →Both teams average 1.8 goals scored per game over their last five matches.
Defence
- →Dalian Zhixing have lost half of their away matches, conceding 1.86 goals per away game.
🚩 Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Chengdu Better City and 4.6 for Dalian Zhixing, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 58% · Over 10.5: 33%.
How Chengdu Better City and Dalian Zhixing Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chengdu Better Citylast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dalian Zhixinglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chengdu Better City have been inconsistent of late, alternating wins and losses in their last five (form string: LDWLW) but remain top with a strong home record. Dalian Zhixing arrive in better short-term form, unbeaten in five and on a three-match winning streak, including a 4-0 away win last time out. However, Dalian's away record over the season has been far less convincing than their recent run.
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing
Chengdu Better City have won both previous home meetings with Dalian Zhixing by 2-0 scorelines, asserting clear control at this venue. Dalian did win the most recent fixture between the sides 2-0 at home in May, but have yet to score away at Chengdu. The small sample limits the strength of any trend.
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
2
Chengdu Better City wins
0
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing wins
Things to Watch: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value cannot be quantified precisely.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is strong, but Chengdu's last home match was a 0-1 defeat.
- ⚠️Small sample size in head-to-head history (three matches).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chengdu Better City 2–1 Dalian ZhixingChengdu Better City are projected to edge this 2-1, underpinned by their 2.21 goals per home game and Dalian's 1.86 conceded away. The single strongest data point is the home/away scoring and concession rates, which consistently favour Chengdu. The main way this forecast could go wrong is if Dalian's recent defensive uptick (just 0.4 goals conceded per game in their last five) holds against a higher-calibre attack.
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing: Common Questions
Who will win Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing?
Chengdu Better City are favoured with a 47% probability to win, compared to 24% for Dalian Zhixing and 29% for the draw. The home side's superior scoring and defensive rates at home underpin this edge.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, with Chengdu keeping just one clean sheet in their last five and Dalian scoring in every away league match since July.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing?
The model estimates a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams' season over 2.5 rates (Chengdu 51.85%, Dalian 59.26%) and recent attacking output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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