Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun Predictions
Super League · China
Qingdao Youth Island
AI Predicted Score
2 - 2
Yunnan Yukun
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
Recommended Bets: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun: Match Preview
Both Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun enter this fixture locked on 38 points from 27 matches, sitting 6th and 5th respectively in the Super League table. Qingdao have drawn 14 matches this season—more than any other side—and remain tough to beat at home (W5 D8 L1), while Yunnan Yukun's recent form has been erratic, alternating heavy defeats with big wins, including a 7-1 loss at Shanghai Shenhua and a 5-0 home win over Shenyang Urban in their last five.
The statistical matchup is defined by Yunnan Yukun's extreme goal environment: their away games average 4.5 goals, with 39 conceded in 14 outings and 24 scored. Qingdao, by contrast, have a more conservative profile, averaging 1.21 goals for and 0.93 against at home, but have conceded four in their most recent home match. Yunnan Yukun's last five league games have seen 16 goals conceded and 9 scored, while both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of their last five. Set-piece threat and discipline are moderate, with both sides averaging under four corners and two cards per game recently.
Given the rates, the model expects a match tilted towards goals and volatility. Yunnan Yukun's attack is likely to create chances even away, but their defensive frailty gives Qingdao ample opportunity to score as well. The most probable scenario is a high-scoring draw, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals strongly favoured by the underlying numbers.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun that most previews miss.
- 1Yunnan Yukun's away matches average 4.5 total goals—highest in the league by a clear margin.
- 2Qingdao Youth Island have drawn 8 of 14 home games (57%), the league's highest home draw rate.
- 3BTTS has landed in 80% of Yunnan Yukun's away fixtures this season (11/14).
Who do you think wins: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes
Both sides average over a goal per game and have kept just four clean sheets combined in their last ten outings; Yunnan Yukun's matches see 4.15 goals per game, and BTTS has landed in four of their last six away games.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Yunnan Yukun have seen over 2.5 goals in 85% of league matches (23/27), while Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record has deteriorated recently, conceding 1.4 per game over their last five.
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The Case For This Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction
Statistically, this is a meeting of the league's two most draw-prone mid-table sides, but with a goal environment skewed high by Yunnan Yukun's wild attack/defence numbers. Qingdao Youth Island's home matches average just over two goals, but Yunnan Yukun's away games are outliers at 4.5 per match, driven by a porous defence and a prolific but inconsistent attack. The data points to a high-probability BTTS and over 2.5 goals scenario, with the likeliest outcome a score draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams are level on points and have similar recent form, but Yunnan Yukun's last five include a 7-1 defeat and a 5-0 win, highlighting volatility.
Defence
- →Yunnan Yukun average 2.04 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game, with away matches yielding 4.5 goals on average.
Match Context
- →Qingdao Youth Island have lost only once at home (W5 D8 L1), but have drawn over half their home fixtures.
🚩 Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Qingdao Youth Island and 4.7 for Yunnan Yukun, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Qingdao Youth Islandlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Yunnan Yukunlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Qingdao Youth Island are winless in their last three (LDD), including a heavy 0-4 home defeat, but have been difficult to beat overall, losing just once at home all season. Yunnan Yukun's recent form is highly volatile, featuring a 7-1 away loss and a 5-0 home win in their last five, reflecting both attacking potential and defensive frailty.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 85.19% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
The head-to-head record is balanced, with each team winning one of the last three encounters and the other ending goalless. The most recent meeting saw Yunnan Yukun edge Qingdao 3-2 at home, but previous matches included a 0-0 draw, so historical trends offer little predictive clarity.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
Qingdao Youth Island wins
1
Draws
1
Yunnan Yukun wins
Things to Watch: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Small sample size in H2H (3 matches) limits confidence in direct matchup trends.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown erratic defensive performances recently, increasing variance in possible outcomes.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Qingdao Youth Island 2–2 Yunnan YukunThe model projects a 2-2 draw, anchored by Yunnan Yukun's league-leading over 2.5 goals rate (85%) and Qingdao's high home draw frequency. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if either side's defence collapses entirely, producing a lopsided scoreline, but the median expectation is for both to score and share the points.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun: Common Questions
Who will win Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun?
The model rates this as an extremely close contest: 33% home win, 31% draw, and 36% away win. Both teams are level on points and have similar recent form, so a draw or narrow win either way is most likely.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun?
Yes is strongly favoured, with a 72% probability. Yunnan Yukun's matches average 4.1 goals and BTTS has landed in 80% of their away games, while Qingdao have scored in 12 of 14 home matches.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 68% probability by the model, well above the league average, driven by Yunnan Yukun's 85% season over 2.5 rate and recent defensive struggles from both sides.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun Resources
Qingdao Youth Island Predictions
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Yunnan Yukun Predictions
All Yunnan Yukun fixtures & tips
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results