Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Hibernian
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Heart Of Midlothian
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Hibernian or Draw
Match Result
7.8/10Hearts Battle Back to Stun Nine-Man Hibs in Dramatic Edinburgh Derby
Heart of Midlothian staged a stirring second-half comeback to defeat Hibernian 2-1 at Easter Road in a fiery Edinburgh Derby that saw the hosts finish with just nine men. Hibs took an early lead through O. Elding in the 7th minute, but Hearts dominated possession throughout and eventually made their numerical advantage count, with goals from L. Shankland and C. Braga turning the game on its head. Despite Hibernian's spirited start, the match was defined by their ill-discipline and inability to keep hold of the ball, as they managed just 24% possession and only one shot on target. Hearts, meanwhile, racked up 23 shots and 11 corners, relentlessly pressing until the breakthrough came. The two red cards for Hibs proved decisive, leaving them vulnerable in the closing stages as Hearts capitalized to snatch all three points.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
O. Elding gives Hibernian an early lead, finishing a swift attack.
65' — Goal
L. Shankland equalizes for Hearts, finally breaking down the Hibs defense.
86' — Goal
C. Braga completes the comeback with a late winner for Hearts.
various' — Red Cards
Hibernian reduced to nine men after two red cards, crippling their defensive efforts.
Hibernian
Hibernian started brightly, grabbing an early lead through O. Elding, but were soon forced onto the back foot by Hearts' relentless pressure. Their inability to maintain possession (just 24%) and lack of attacking threat—managing only four shots and a solitary effort on target—meant their lead always looked fragile. Discipline was a major issue, with five yellow cards and two reds leaving them short-handed for much of the second half. Despite some resolute defending, Hibs were eventually overwhelmed, with their depleted ranks unable to withstand Hearts' late surge. The early goal offered hope, but the lack of attacking intent and poor discipline ultimately cost them dearly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Heart Of Midlothian
Hearts dominated the match from a statistical standpoint, enjoying 76% possession and firing 23 shots, six of which were on target. After falling behind early, they maintained composure and gradually ramped up the pressure, eventually breaking through a stubborn Hibs defense. The introduction of fresh legs and tactical adjustments paid off as L. Shankland equalized in the 65th minute before C. Braga completed the turnaround with a late winner. Hearts' patience and control were key, and their ability to exploit the extra space against a nine-man Hibs side proved decisive. While they were perhaps guilty of wastefulness in front of goal, their persistence and superior numbers ultimately delivered a deserved victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 3-4-1-2 formation, but Hearts' superior technical quality and organization allowed them to control the midfield and dictate tempo. Hibs, after their early goal, retreated into a defensive shell, relying on numbers behind the ball and sporadic counter-attacks. The lack of width and attacking support left their front men isolated, especially after going down to nine men. Hearts' patient build-up and use of width stretched Hibs, and their 11 corners reflected a persistent threat from set pieces. The numerical advantage became telling in the final half hour, as Hearts overloaded the flanks and found gaps in a tiring, undermanned Hibs defense.
Turning Point
The second red card for Hibernian, which left them with nine men and allowed Hearts to pile on relentless pressure, leading to the late winner.
Man of the Match
L. Shankland
Led the Hearts attack with purpose, scored the vital equalizer, and was instrumental in the comeback.
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
22%
BTTS: Yes
30%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams have a strong defensive record, recent H2H meetings have produced several draws, and both sides have similar probabilities for win/draw/loss. Low-scoring, close contest is likely.
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Double Chance: Hibernian or Draw
Hibernian are strong at home (8W, 6D, 2L), Hearts are league leaders but not dominant away (8W, 3D, 5L). Hibs rarely lose at Easter Road and H2H is balanced.
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Over/Under: Under@ 1.18
Both teams have a majority of recent matches under 2.5 goals, recent H2H meetings are low-scoring, and both defenses are solid. However, odds are short and little value.
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More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction
This Edinburgh derby looks set to be a tight, low-scoring affair. Hibernian are solid at home and rarely lose, while Hearts are top of the table but not overwhelming on the road. Both teams have shown strong defensive form recently, with few goals conceded and several clean sheets. Head-to-head history is remarkably balanced, with four draws in the last ten and most games being closely contested. Expect a tactical battle, few clear chances, and a result that could go either way, but with a draw or narrow win the most probable outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Hibernian have lost only 2 of 16 home games; Hearts have lost 5 of 16 away.
- →Recent H2H: 4 draws in last 10, most games decided by 1 goal or less.
Defence
- →Both teams average under 1.5 goals conceded per game this season.
- →Last 5 matches: Hibernian 3 clean sheets, Hearts 2 clean sheets.
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Low BTTS and over 2.5 rates in recent matches for both sides.
🚩 Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.7 corners for Hibernian and 6.7 for Heart Of Midlothian, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hibernianlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Heart Of Midlothianlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +47.06% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 61% avg
What History Says: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Hibernian wins
3
Draws
4
Heart Of Midlothian wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are very short for under 2.5 and BTTS no, offering little value.
- ⚠️Derby matches can be unpredictable and emotionally charged.
- ⚠️Hearts have more attacking quality but may be cautious away from home.
- ⚠️No confirmed lineups; late changes could impact the game plan.
- ⚠️Model probabilities suggest little value in major markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.