Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Hibernian
Full Time
1 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
Heart Of Midlothian
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.5/10Hearts Outclass Hibs at Easter Road in Derby Triumph
Heart of Midlothian delivered a commanding performance at Easter Road, defeating rivals Hibernian 3-1 in a heated Edinburgh derby. Hearts took control early, opening the scoring in the 13th minute and doubling their lead before halftime. Although Hibs pulled one back shortly after the break, Hearts responded swiftly to restore their two-goal advantage, effectively quelling any hopes of a comeback. The visitors were clinical in front of goal, converting three of their five shots on target, while Hibernian struggled to make their dominance in possession and total shots count. The match was fiercely contested, with Hibs collecting two yellow cards and committing 16 fouls, but Hearts kept their composure to see out a deserved victory.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 3
Key Moments
13' — Goal
Heart of Midlothian open the scoring, seizing early momentum.
43' — Goal
Hearts double their lead just before halftime, putting Hibs on the back foot.
51' — Goal
N. Lowe pulls one back for Hibernian, igniting hopes of a comeback.
66' — Goal
Hearts restore their two-goal cushion, effectively ending the contest.
Various' — Cards
Hibernian pick up two yellow cards amid mounting frustration.
Hibernian
Hibernian started brightly, enjoying 55% possession and creating 17 shots, but struggled to break down a well-organized Hearts defense. Despite a spirited spell after the interval, capped by a goal in the 51st minute, their lack of cutting edge in the final third and defensive lapses proved costly. The home side's frustration was evident, as they racked up 16 fouls and two yellow cards. While their 3-4-2-1 formation allowed them to control midfield phases, Hibs were repeatedly exposed on the counter and failed to capitalize on their seven corners. The inability to convert pressure into goals ultimately doomed their derby hopes.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Heart Of Midlothian
Hearts executed a disciplined and ruthless away performance, making the most of their opportunities and defending resolutely when under pressure. Their 4-4-2 setup provided solidity at the back and options going forward, as they struck twice in the first half to seize control of the derby. Despite conceding early in the second half, Hearts responded within minutes to reassert their dominance. With eight corners and five shots on target, they were a constant threat on set pieces and transitions. A clean disciplinary record and effective game management rounded off an impressive display.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hibernian's 3-4-2-1 formation aimed to dominate midfield and push wing-backs high, resulting in a territorial advantage and more shots. However, their aggressive approach left spaces behind, which Hearts exploited with quick transitions and direct play from their 4-4-2 setup. The visitors' compact midfield shielded the back four and allowed them to break quickly, especially through their two strikers. Hearts' set-piece threat was evident with eight corners, and their ability to absorb pressure before striking on the counter proved decisive. Hibs' substitutions and tactical tweaks after halftime briefly shifted momentum, but Hearts' organization and clinical edge made the difference.
Turning Point
Hearts' third goal in the 66th minute, coming shortly after Hibs had reduced the deficit, decisively ended the hosts' hopes of a comeback.
Man of the Match
Cláudio Braga
Led the line superbly, scored a key goal, and was instrumental in Hearts' attacking play.
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian: Match Preview
Hibernian and Heart of Midlothian meet at Easter Road with both sides on three points after two Premiership rounds, but Hearts’ underlying numbers suggest greater attacking potency. Hibs’ only home league fixture ended in a 1-2 defeat to Motherwell, and while they did claim a notable away win at Rangers, their overall scoring rate remains modest at 1.5 per game. Hearts, meanwhile, come off a 4-0 home win over Dundee United and have averaged 2.5 goals for and 1.0 against in league play, with a notable 2.8 goals scored per game across all competitions in their last five.
Statistically, this derby projects as a moderately high-scoring contest. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in every league match so far, and Hearts’ last five have averaged 5.0 total goals per game (scored plus conceded). Hibs’ defence has kept three clean sheets in their last five across all competitions, but their attack has failed to score in two of those. Hearts’ second-half output is especially strong, with ten of their last thirteen goals coming after the break. Set-piece and corners data is limited, but neither side averages more than three corners per game recently, indicating most threat comes from open play.
The model rates Hearts as marginal favourites, projecting a 2-1 away win based on their superior scoring rate and recent H2H success at Easter Road. The likeliest path is a tight first half followed by Hearts pulling away as their attacking depth asserts itself. Hibs’ home struggles and Hearts’ consistent output against mid-table opposition are the key drivers.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian that most previews miss.
- 1Hearts have scored ten of their last thirteen goals in the second half, suggesting a late surge pattern.
- 2Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of both teams’ league matches this season.
- 3Only one of Hibernian’s last five matches has seen both teams fail to score, but Hibs have failed to score themselves in two of those.
Who do you think wins: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
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The Case For This Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction
Both sides enter the Edinburgh derby on level points after two rounds, but Hearts’ recent attacking output and away scoring rate tilt the underlying numbers in their favour. Hibernian’s home record is patchy, with a single goal scored and two conceded in their only league outing at Easter Road this season, while Hearts’ away data is limited but their last five matches show a 2.8 goals per game scoring average. The fixture profile points to a moderately high goal environment, with both teams’ season over 2.5 goal rates at 100% and four of Hearts’ last five seeing both teams score. Hibernian’s defence has been more robust in Europe, but their domestic numbers lag behind, especially at home. The most likely scenario is Hearts’ attack finding gaps after the break, with Hibs struggling to match their output.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Hearts average 2.8 goals scored per game over their last five matches, compared to Hibernian’s 1.0.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their Premiership matches this season.
- →Hearts have won four of the last ten Edinburgh derbies, including the last meeting at Easter Road.
🚩 Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Hibernian and 5.8 for Heart Of Midlothian, for an expected total of 11.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 80% · Over 10.5: 59%.
How Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hibernianlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Heart Of Midlothianlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hibernian arrive with a DWDWW form string but have only scored once in their last three matches, relying on defensive solidity in Europe. Hearts’ form is DWDWL, underpinned by a 4-0 league win and a 6-2 cup rout, with no failures to score in their last five. Hearts’ attacking momentum is the standout trend.
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian
The last ten Edinburgh derbies are closely contested, with Hearts edging the series four wins to three and three draws. Seven of those ten produced at least three goals, and Hearts have won two of the last three at Easter Road, both by a single-goal margin.
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Hibernian wins
2
Draws
5
Heart Of Midlothian wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian
No bookmaker odds are available, so value assessment is not possible. Once odds are posted, the model’s 44% away win probability and 60% over 2.5 goals rate will be the key benchmarks for identifying any edge.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian
- ⚠️Both teams’ league sample sizes are very small (two matches each), increasing result variance.
- ⚠️Recent European fixtures may have affected squad rotation and fatigue, but no injury data is reported.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hibernian 1–2 Heart Of MidlothianThe model projects a 2-1 win for Hearts, underpinned by their 2.8 goals per game average over the last five and a recent track record of away success in the derby. The main risk is Hibernian’s defensive improvement in Europe translating domestically, which could suppress Hearts’ output and tilt the match towards a draw.
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian: Common Questions
Who will win Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
The model gives Hearts a 44% chance of victory, with Hibernian at 26% and the draw at 30%. Hearts’ stronger attack and recent derby record make them marginal favourites.
Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Hearts?
There is a 56% probability of both teams scoring, supported by four of Hearts’ last five matches seeing BTTS and both teams averaging over 2.5 goals per game in the league.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Hibernian vs Hearts?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 60%, with both teams’ Premiership matches this season ending above that line and Hearts’ recent games averaging five total goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 27 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.