IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
IF Elfsborg
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Orgryte IS
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: IF Elfsborg Win
Recommended Bets: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS: Match Preview
Elfsborg enter this contest sitting fifth in the Allsvenskan, with a home record of 7 wins from 13 and just two defeats at Borås Arena. Their recent form is steady—unbeaten in five league matches (DDWLW)—while Orgryte, 15th and deep in relegation trouble, have managed just one win in their last five and have the league's worst away record (2-1-10).
Statistically, the contrast is stark: Elfsborg's defence allows only 0.69 goals per home game, while Orgryte concede an alarming 2.62 per away match. Elfsborg's attack is efficient at home (1.62 scored per game), and their last five matches show an uptick in output (1.6 goals per game). Orgryte's away matches are goal-heavy, with 60% finishing over 2.5 goals and 4 of their last 5 seeing both teams score. Notably, Orgryte's second-half scoring (7 of last 8 goals after the break) could threaten if Elfsborg let up late.
The model projects a moderate-to-high goal environment, with Elfsborg's structured attack likely to capitalise early against Orgryte's leaky defence. Orgryte's recent attacking improvement and late-goal trend suggest they could register, but the underlying rates and home/away splits point to a narrow Elfsborg win, most likely by a 2-1 or 2-0 margin.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS that most previews miss.
- 1Orgryte have conceded 2+ goals in 10 of 13 away matches, with an average of 2.62 conceded per trip.
- 2Elfsborg's home matches have produced under 3.5 goals in 10 of 13 outings (77%).
- 3Orgryte have scored 7 of their last 8 goals in the second half, indicating a late-game scoring bias.
Who do you think wins: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: IF Elfsborg Win
Elfsborg's 7-4-2 home record, conceding just 9 in 13 at Borås Arena, contrasts sharply with Orgryte's 2-1-10 away record and 34 goals conceded on the road.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Orgryte away matches average 3.38 goals (10 scored, 34 conceded in 13), and both sides average 1.6 goals scored over their last five.
BTTS: Yes
Orgryte have scored in 4 of their last 5 and BTTS has landed in 4 of those, while Elfsborg have conceded in 3 of their last 5.
More Allsvenskan Predictions
The Case For This IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS Prediction
This fixture pits a defensively solid Elfsborg side with a strong home record against an Orgryte team whose away form is among the league's worst, but who have shown some attacking punch recently. The statistical shape of the match points to a moderate-to-high goal environment, with Elfsborg's attack likely to exploit Orgryte's porous back line, while the visitors' late scoring trend gives them a puncher's chance of getting on the board.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average 1.6 goals scored in their last 5 matches, indicating recent attacking output above their season averages.
Defence
- →Elfsborg average just 0.69 goals conceded per home game (9 in 13), while Orgryte ship 2.62 away (34 in 13).
- →Orgryte have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 and have just a 12% season clean sheet rate.
🚩 IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for IF Elfsborg and 4 for Orgryte IS, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
IF Elfsborglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Orgryte ISlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Elfsborg are unbeaten in five league matches, picking up two wins and three draws, and have kept two clean sheets in that span. Orgryte have just one win in their last five (DWLLL), but have found the net in four of those, hinting at a more threatening attack despite ongoing defensive woes.
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS
Recent meetings between these sides have been high-scoring and competitive, with all three since 2024 featuring both teams on the scoresheet. The last league encounter ended 2-2, while Elfsborg won 3-1 at home in the Svenska Cupen.
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
IF Elfsborg wins
1
Draws
1
Orgryte IS wins
Things to Watch: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent Orgryte results show some attacking improvement, but defensive frailty remains.
- ⚠️Small head-to-head sample; only three recent meetings, all with both teams scoring.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
IF Elfsborg 2–1 Orgryte ISThe model expects Elfsborg to prevail 2-1, driven by their defensive solidity at home and Orgryte's chronic defensive issues on the road. The strongest data point is Orgryte's 34 goals conceded in 13 away games. The main risk is Orgryte's recent attacking uptick and tendency to score late, which could turn a comfortable home win into a nervy finish or a high-scoring draw.
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS: Common Questions
Who will win IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?
Elfsborg are favoured with a 57% probability of victory, based on their 7-4-2 home record and Orgryte's 2-1-10 away form. The draw is rated at 26%, with Orgryte only a 17% chance to win.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?
Both teams to score is rated a 56% probability, as Orgryte have scored in 4 of their last 5 and all three recent head-to-heads have seen goals at both ends.
How many goals are expected in IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?
The model gives a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, with Elfsborg's home games averaging 2.3 and Orgryte's away games averaging 3.4 goals per match this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS Resources
IF Elfsborg Predictions
All IF Elfsborg fixtures & tips
Orgryte IS Predictions
All Orgryte IS fixtures & tips
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg — next match predictions
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF
Orgryte IS — next match predictions
Allsvenskan Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results