Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Orgryte IS
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Mjallby AIF
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or Mjallby AIF
Recommended Bets: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF: Match Preview
Orgryte IS enter this fixture fighting for survival, sitting 15th with only four wins from 24 matches and a goal difference of -25. Their recent form is mixed—one win, one draw, and three defeats in the last five—but a 4-2 home win over Gais in their latest outing offers a rare bright spot. Mjallby AIF, three places higher in 12th, have also struggled for consistency, with just one win in their last five league games and a modest away record (2 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses).
From a statistical perspective, this match is shaped by Orgryte's leaky defence (2.25 goals conceded per game, worst in the league) against a Mjallby attack that has managed only 0.6 goals per game over the last five. Orgryte's home attack is more productive than their overall record (21 goals in 12 home games), but their defensive frailty is persistent. Mjallby have been more resilient on the road, drawing half their away fixtures and conceding 1.75 goals per away match. Both teams have a high incidence of matches under 2.5 goals (Mjallby 54%, Orgryte 42%).
The model expects a tight contest, with neither side likely to dominate. The most probable outcome is a draw, likely in the 1-1 range, as both teams' attacking output is modest and their defensive issues are counterbalanced by each other's lack of cutting edge. The probability distribution points to a low-scoring affair with set pieces and defensive errors likely to play a decisive role.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF that most previews miss.
- 1Mjallby have failed to score in three of their last five league matches, averaging just 0.6 goals per game in that span.
- 2Orgryte's home matches average 3.58 total goals, but their last five at home have seen both teams score in four out of five.
- 3Mjallby have drawn six of their twelve away matches this season, the joint-most in the league.
Who do you think wins: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over a goal per game (Orgryte 1.21, Mjallby 1.17), and neither defence is reliable, but the draw rate is high (Orgryte 6/24, Mjallby 8/24) and both have shown a tendency for low-scoring, close matches.
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Double Chance: Draw or Mjallby AIF
Mjallby have lost just 4 of 12 away matches and Orgryte have only 2 home wins all season, with a 72% model probability for X2 based on away solidity and home struggles.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Orgryte's home matches average 1.75 goals per side and Mjallby away 1.33, but both teams' recent attacking output is modest and the under 2.5 model probability is 52%.
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More Allsvenskan Predictions
The Case For This Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF Prediction
Statistically, this is a low-scoring, closely matched relegation scrap, with both sides struggling to convert possession into goals and neither defence offering much reliability. Orgryte's home attack is marginally better, but Mjallby's away record and defensive numbers suggest they are less likely to collapse. The most probable outcome is a draw, shaped by the low attacking output and high draw rates on both sides.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average just over 1 goal scored per game this season (Orgryte 1.21, Mjallby 1.17).
Defence
- →Orgryte have conceded 54 goals in 24 matches (2.25 per game), the league's worst defensive record.
Match Context
- →Mjallby have drawn 50% of their away matches (6/12), showing resilience on the road.
🚩 Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Orgryte IS and 5.4 for Mjallby AIF, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Orgryte ISlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mjallby AIFlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Orgryte IS have struggled for momentum, with just one win in their last five and a season-long defensive crisis (54 goals conceded). Their recent 4-2 home win shows some attacking spark, but it is an outlier in a run otherwise marked by defeats. Mjallby AIF have also found wins hard to come by, with only one in their last five league games and three matches without scoring, but their away draw rate suggests they are difficult to beat on the road.
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF
The recent head-to-head record is balanced, with each team winning once and two matches ending level in the last four meetings. Scorelines have tended to be close, with only one of the last four producing more than two goals. The most recent clash saw Orgryte win 2-0 away, but Mjallby have previously won 3-0 at this ground.
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
1
Orgryte IS wins
1
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF wins
Things to Watch: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small and both teams are inconsistent, increasing variance.
- ⚠️Cup and European matches for Mjallby may affect fatigue or rotation, but no injury data is present.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Orgryte IS 1–1 Mjallby AIFA 1-1 draw is the likeliest result, underpinned by both teams' low scoring rates (Orgryte 1.21, Mjallby 1.17 goals per game) and Mjallby's tendency to draw away. The main risk is Orgryte's defensive volatility—if their back line collapses as it has in several home matches, a higher-scoring outcome is possible.
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF: Common Questions
Who will win Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
The model gives Mjallby AIF a slight edge (35% win probability) over Orgryte IS (28%), but the draw is the single most likely outcome at 37%. Both teams have struggled for wins and have high draw rates, especially Mjallby away.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
There is a 56% probability that both teams will score, based on Orgryte's defensive record (only 12.5% clean sheets) and Mjallby's away attack, though both sides average just over a goal per game.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 52% probability, reflecting both sides' modest attacking output and Mjallby's tendency for low-scoring away draws.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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