Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF Predictions

Malmo FF PredictionsHammarby FF PredictionsAllsvenskanH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Sweden
high confidence
Malmo FF

Malmo FF

AI Predicted Score

1 - 2

Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF

🗓️ Sunday, 1 Nov 2026 at 14:00 CET (venue time) · 13:00 UTC (your time)📍 Eleda Stadion, Malmö

Win Probability (1X2)

Malmo FF 23%Draw 32%Hammarby FF 45%

Best Value Pick

Double Chance: Draw or Hammarby FF

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

Double Chance: Draw or Hammarby FF
8/10
Match Result: Hammarby FF Win
7/10

Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF: Match Preview

Malmo FF enter this fixture sitting seventh, having won just once in their last four league matches and struggling for consistency at home, where they’ve lost seven of thirteen. Hammarby FF, third in the table, have been the division’s most prolific scorers and come in with four wins from their last five league games, including three clean sheets. The gap in points and goal difference reflects a significant performance differential over the season.

Statistically, Hammarby’s attack (2.08 goals per game) and defensive record (0.88 conceded) are among the league’s best, while Malmo’s home defence is leaky (1.62 conceded per home game). Recent form amplifies this: Malmo have failed to score in three of their last five, while Hammarby have kept three clean sheets in the same span. Both sides average over 14 shots per game, but Hammarby’s shots-on-target rate (6.2 per match last five) is notably higher. Corners are likely to be plentiful, with both averaging over 5.5 per game recently.

The model expects Hammarby to control the key phases, with their superior attack likely to capitalise on Malmo’s defensive lapses. Goal volume should be moderate to high, and the away side’s efficiency at both ends points to a narrow Hammarby win, most plausibly by a 2-1 margin.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Malmo FF1.15

Expected goals · model says 1.15

Hammarby FF1.60

Expected goals · model says 1.60

Win Probability
Malmo FF 27% Draw 25% Hammarby FF 48%

Over 2.5 Goals

52%

BTTS: Yes

55%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
23%
32%
45%
Malmo FF 23%Draw 32%Hammarby FF 45%
Both Teams to Score
53%
47%
Yes 53%No 47%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
54%
46%
Over 2.5 54%Under 2.5 46%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
85%
15%
Over 9.5 85%Under 9.5 15%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF that most previews miss.

  • 1Malmo FF have failed to score in three of their last five league matches, despite averaging 14.6 shots per game in that span.
  • 2Hammarby FF have collected 10 points from their last five away league matches, conceding just three goals in that stretch.
  • 3The last five H2H meetings at Eleda Stadion have produced an average of 2.6 goals per match, with both teams scoring in three of those.

Who do you think wins: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF Prediction

This fixture pits Malmo FF’s patchy home form against Hammarby FF’s league-leading attack and defensive solidity. Malmo have struggled for consistency at Eleda Stadion, while Hammarby arrive with the highest goals scored per game in the division and a top-three defensive record. The statistical shape of the match points toward a moderate-to-high goal environment, with the away side’s efficiency in both boxes likely to tilt the balance.

Key Factors at a Glance

Defence

  • →Hammarby FF average 2.08 goals scored and only 0.88 conceded per game this season.
  • →Malmo FF have lost 7 of 13 home matches, conceding 1.62 per home game.

Match Context

  • →Hammarby have taken 10 points from their last 5 away league matches.

🚩 Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF Corners Prediction

medium confidence
13.2expected total corners
Over 85%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for Malmo FF and 6.4 for Hammarby FF, for an expected total of 13.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (85%). Over 8.5: 91% · Over 10.5: 77%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How Malmo FF and Hammarby FF Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

Malmo FFMalmo FFlast 5 matches
Otto RosengrenXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Hammarby FFHammarby FFlast 5 matches
P. AbrahamXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

Noah Karl Anders PerssonXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

F. WintherXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

M. KarlssonXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Malmo FF’s recent form is mixed, with just one win and two goals scored in their last four league matches, and three games without finding the net. Hammarby FF, by contrast, have won four of their last five league fixtures, conceding only once in their last three and maintaining momentum in the run-in.

Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF — Last 10 Matches

Malmo FFMalmo FFLast 10 results
D0-0
L0-1
W1-0
L0-2
W4-1
D0-0
W1-0
L0-3
W1-0
L1-2
D@ IF Elfsborg0-0
Lvs BK Hacken0-1
Wvs Kalmar FF1-0
L@ Vasteras SK FK0-2
Wvs Orgryte IS4-1
Dvs AIK Stockholm0-0
W@ Sirius1-0
Lvs Djurgardens IF0-3
W@ Gais1-0
Lvs Degerfors IF1-2

Strengths

  • +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
  • +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
  • +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Hammarby FFHammarby FFLast 10 results
W1-0
L0-1
W1-0
W3-1
D1-1
L2-3
W2-0
W4-0
W3-0
D1-1
W@ Halmstad1-0
Lvs Djurgardens IF0-1
W@ Degerfors IF1-0
Wvs IF Brommapojkarna3-1
D@ Orgryte IS1-1
L@ AIK Stockholm2-3
Wvs Gais2-0
W@ Kalmar FF4-0
Wvs BK Hacken3-0
D@ IF Brommapojkarna1-1

Strengths

  • +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
  • +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
  • +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
  • +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game

What History Says: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

The last ten meetings between these sides are balanced, with three wins each and four draws. Hammarby have had the edge recently, winning their last two trips to Malmo and scoring three times in each. High-scoring games are common, with only three of the last ten ending goalless.

Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF Head-to-Head History

Last 10 meetings between these sides

3

Malmo FF wins

4

Draws

3

Hammarby FF wins

30%40% draws30%
17 May 26Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF4-1
27 Oct 25Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF1-3
23 Apr 25Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF2-0
2 Nov 24Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF2-2
7 Apr 24Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF2-0
17 Sept 23Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF1-3

Things to Watch: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided; value edge cannot be quantified.
  • ⚠️Recent Malmo xG and shot volume remain high despite poor finishing; potential for regression.
  • ⚠️Hammarby’s away defence has allowed 14 goals in 12, not elite, and Malmo’s attack can be volatile.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Malmo FF 1–2 Hammarby FF

The model projects a 2-1 away win for Hammarby FF, underpinned by their superior season-long scoring and defensive rates (2.08 scored, 0.88 conceded per game). The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Malmo convert their high shot volume into goals at a rate above their recent average, or if Hammarby’s away defence regresses unexpectedly.

Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF: Common Questions

Who will win Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?

Hammarby FF are rated 45% likely to win, with Malmo at 23% and the draw at 32%. Hammarby’s superior scoring rate and away form make them the statistical favourites.

Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?

There’s a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals, with both teams showing above-average over 2.5 rates this season (Malmo 56%, Hammarby 50%). The matchup leans slightly toward a higher-scoring contest.

Which team is more likely to keep a clean sheet?

Hammarby have a higher season clean sheet percentage (41.7%) compared to Malmo (36%), and Malmo have failed to score in three of their last five. The away side is marginally more likely to keep a clean sheet.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 25 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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