Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Le Havre
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Stade Brestois 29
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Stade Brestois 29 Win
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29: Match Preview
Le Havre enter this fixture off a narrow 0-1 home defeat to Monaco and have struggled for attacking output, failing to score in two of their last five and sitting 14th in the early Ligue 1 table. Brest, meanwhile, opened with a 2-2 away draw at Le Mans and have shown more attacking intent, averaging 1.8 goals scored per match across their last five, including friendlies. The H2H record also tilts heavily towards Brest, who have won six of the last ten encounters.
Statistically, Brest's attack is the sharper unit: they produced 26 shots and 7 on target in their opening league match, and their last five matches have all seen both teams score in four instances. Le Havre, by contrast, have averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game in their last five, with a solitary clean sheet. Set piece trends are muted, but Brest's 10 corners in their last match point to sustained pressure, while both sides have kept their disciplinary records relatively clean.
Given these underlying rates, the model projects a moderately open contest with Brest's offensive edge likely to decide it. The likeliest scenario is Brest exploiting Le Havre's lack of attacking punch and defensive frailties, with a 2-1 away win the statistical favourite. However, Le Havre's home advantage and Brest's own defensive looseness keep the draw and BTTS in play.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 that most previews miss.
- 1Brest's last five matches have averaged 3.8 total goals, with four of five finishing BTTS.
- 2Le Havre have scored only once in their last three home matches against Brest.
- 3Brest have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding at least two in three of those.
Who do you think wins: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Stade Brestois 29 Win
Brest have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last five and have not lost in their last five H2H away matches against Le Havre, while Le Havre have failed to score in two of their last five and lost six of the last ten H2H.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have shown defensive vulnerability: Brest have conceded two per game in their last five, and Le Havre average 1.2 conceded in the same span, with Brest's last five seeing four BTTS and a 100% over 2.5 rate in league play.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction
This fixture profiles as a moderately high-scoring contest, with Brest's attack output outpacing Le Havre's defensive resilience. Both sides have yet to keep a clean sheet in Ligue 1 this season, and Brest's away record in the H2H is strong, suggesting they are well positioned to exploit Le Havre's blunt attack and recent form.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Le Havre have failed to score in two of their last five and average just 0.8 goals per game in that span.
Defence
- →Brest have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game across their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Brest have won six of the last ten H2H meetings, including three of the last four away at Le Havre.
🚩 Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Le Havre and 6.3 for Stade Brestois 29, for an expected total of 11.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (74%). Over 8.5: 83% · Over 10.5: 63%.
How Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Le Havrelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stade Brestois 29last 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Le Havre have struggled for momentum, posting a 'LWLLD' form string and failing to score in two of their last five, including a 0-1 home defeat to Monaco. Brest, on the other hand, have been more consistent in attack, drawing 2-2 away at Le Mans in their Ligue 1 opener and averaging 1.8 goals per game across their last five, with only one failure to score.
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 — Last 1 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29
Brest have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last ten meetings and three of the last four at Le Havre. Clean sheets have been common for the away side in this fixture, but the last ten also include four matches with both teams scoring.
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Le Havre wins
2
Draws
6
Stade Brestois 29 wins
Things to Watch: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29
- ⚠️Both teams have only played one Ligue 1 match this season, so season averages are based on a very small sample.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies may not fully reflect competitive intensity or preferred lineups.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be quantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Le Havre 1–2 Stade Brestois 29The model forecasts a 2-1 win for Brest, driven by their superior scoring rate (1.8 per game last five) and a historically strong H2H away record. The main risk is Brest's own defensive record—two goals conceded per game—leaving the door open for Le Havre to take advantage if their attack sparks.
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29: Common Questions
Who will win Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Brest are modelled as 44% likely winners, compared to 24% for Le Havre and 32% for the draw. This is based on Brest's higher recent scoring rates and their strong head-to-head record away at Le Havre.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Brest?
The model gives a 54% probability to both teams scoring, reflecting Brest's four BTTS results in their last five and Le Havre's defensive record of just one clean sheet in the same span.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Le Havre vs Brest?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 57% probability, with Brest's last five matches averaging 3.8 total goals and Le Havre conceding at least once in four of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.