Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Legia Warszawa
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Wisla Krakow
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.8(+14% edge)
Recommended Bets: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow: Match Preview
Legia Warszawa come into this fixture unbeaten after nine league matches, sitting second in the table with 19 points and a +11 goal difference. Their home form is solid but not dominant, with two wins and two draws from four, while Wisla Krakow are fourth, two points behind, but have failed to win away from home this season, drawing two and losing two on the road. Both sides are in positive form, each on a three-match winning streak in all competitions, but Legia’s consistency and defensive record at home set the baseline.
The statistical matchup is shaped by Legia’s reliable attack (2.11 goals per game, 10 scored in 4 home matches) against a Wisla defence that has shipped 9 in 4 away games. Wisla themselves average 1.89 goals per game but their away attack (7 in 4) is offset by their defensive frailty on the road. Both teams have scored in all of Legia’s last five league games and four of Wisla’s last five, with the over 2.5 goals landing in 44% of Legia’s and 67% of Wisla’s league matches. Set-piece threat is moderate: Wisla average 4.2 corners per match in their last five, Legia just 2, and neither side is especially ill-disciplined (Legia 1 yellow per game, Wisla 1.2).
The model expects a competitive, open match, with Legia’s home edge and Wisla’s away defensive record tilting the probabilities. A 2-1 home win is most likely, but the high rate of draws in both teams’ home/away splits (Legia 2/4 home, Wisla 2/4 away) means the draw is a live outcome. Both teams should find the net, but Legia’s more balanced profile and greater home defensive solidity give them the edge in a fixture that rates above average for goals but not a shootout.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow that most previews miss.
- 1Legia have drawn half of their home league matches this season (2 of 4), while Wisla have drawn half of their away games (2 of 4).
- 2Both teams to score has landed in 9 of the last 10 combined league matches for these sides.
- 3Wisla concede 2.25 goals per away game, the second-worst away defensive rate in the top half of the table.
Who do you think wins: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.72
The model assigns a 30% probability to the draw, compared to the market's implied 26%, reflecting the high draw rate in Legia's home matches (2 of 4 this season) and Wisla's away draws (2 of 4).
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The Case For This Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Prediction
Statistically, this is a contest between two of the league's most consistent attacks, but with a notable home/away split in underlying defensive numbers. Legia's unbeaten record and strong home defensive output (3 conceded in 4 home games) contrasts with Wisla's winless away run and 9 goals conceded in 4 away matches. The goal environment projects above average, but not explosive, with both sides regularly scoring and conceding, and both teams to score landing in 5 of Legia's last 5 and 4 of Wisla's last 5 league games.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Legia average 2.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per league match; Wisla average 1.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
- →Legia are unbeaten in 9 league matches (5W, 4D); Wisla have not won away (0W, 2D, 2L) and concede 2.25 per away game.
Match Context
- →Both teams have scored in all of Legia's last 5 and 4 of Wisla's last 5 league matches.
🚩 Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Legia Warszawa and 6 for Wisla Krakow, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Legia Warszawalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Wisla Krakowlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Legia arrive on a three-match winning streak, unbeaten in the league with five wins and four draws from nine, and have not lost at home. Wisla are also in good form, winning their last three in all competitions, but their away league record is a concern: no wins, two draws, and two defeats, with nine goals conceded in those four matches.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 3.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
Legia have the historical edge, winning four of the last eight against Wisla, including two of the last three at home. The fixture tends to produce goals, with five of the last eight meetings seeing three or more, and both teams have scored in half of those matches. Draws are less common but not rare, with two in the last eight.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
4
Legia Warszawa wins
2
Draws
2
Wisla Krakow wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
The draw offers the clearest value at current odds, with the model’s 30% probability outstripping the market’s implied 26% (odds 3.8), a +14% edge. This reflects the high draw rates in Legia’s home and Wisla’s away splits. Odds for goals markets are unavailable, so value analysis is limited to the 1X2 market.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
- ⚠️No major injuries reported for either side.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies may distort short-term form signals.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Legia Warszawa 2–1 Wisla KrakowThe model projects a 2-1 win for Legia Warszawa, driven primarily by Wisla’s poor away defensive record (9 conceded in 4 away league games) and Legia’s unbeaten run. The strongest data point is Wisla’s inability to keep clean sheets on the road, but the high draw rates for both sides at home and away mean a 1-1 or 2-2 cannot be discounted if Legia’s attack misfires or Wisla convert their chances.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow: Common Questions
Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Legia are favoured with a 44% probability of victory, compared to 26% for Wisla and 30% for the draw. Legia’s unbeaten start and Wisla’s winless away record are the key factors.
Will both teams score in Legia vs Wisla?
There is a 62% model probability for both teams to score, supported by both sides scoring in 9 of their last 10 combined league matches and neither team keeping more than one clean sheet in their last five.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Legia vs Wisla?
The model gives a 58% probability to over 2.5 goals, reflecting Wisla’s high away concession rate (2.25 per game) and the high BTTS frequency in recent matches for both teams.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.