Mirassol vs Palmeiras Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Mirassol
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Palmeiras
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 2.2(+19% edge)
Match Result
7.4/10Palmeiras Rescue Point with 10 Men in Tense Draw at Mirassol
Mirassol and Palmeiras played out a fiercely contested 1-1 draw at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a winner. The home side broke the deadlock early in the second half through Bruno Santos, but Palmeiras responded with resilience, equalizing in the 75th minute despite being reduced to ten men. The match was marked by physical battles and tactical adjustments, with both teams earning two yellow cards and Palmeiras suffering a red card setback. Statistically, Palmeiras edged possession with 52% and registered 14 shots to Mirassol's 11, but the hosts were more clinical, hitting the target five times compared to the visitors' three. Both teams had periods of dominance, but defensive discipline and some wasteful finishing ensured the spoils were shared.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
50' — Goal
Bruno Santos scores for Mirassol, finishing a swift move to give the hosts the lead.
60' — Red Card
Palmeiras reduced to 10 men after a straight red card, shifting the match's momentum.
75' — Goal
Vitor Roque equalizes for Palmeiras, capitalizing on a defensive lapse.
80' — Yellow Card
Tempers flare as both sides pick up bookings in a tense final phase.
Mirassol
Mirassol put in a spirited display, particularly in the first hour, pressing effectively and creating chances from midfield. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to control central areas and transition quickly, culminating in Bruno Santos' well-taken goal early in the second half. However, they struggled to capitalize on their numerical advantage after Palmeiras went down to ten men, and their inability to convert further opportunities ultimately cost them two points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Palmeiras
Palmeiras showed character and tactical flexibility, overcoming a second-half red card to claim a valuable away point. Their 3-4-2-1 setup gave them early control of possession and allowed them to create more chances, though they were less efficient in front of goal. After falling behind and losing a player to a red card, they reorganized, pressed higher, and found an equalizer through determined attacking play. Their defensive resolve was tested late on but held firm.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Mirassol's 4-2-3-1 formation provided solidity in midfield and allowed them to press Palmeiras' back three effectively, especially in the first half. Their transitions were sharp, and the attacking midfield trio supported Bruno Santos well. After Palmeiras' red card, Mirassol tried to push their full-backs higher, but struggled to break down the reorganized visitors. Palmeiras' 3-4-2-1 offered initial control of possession and width through the wing-backs. Following the sending-off, they shifted to a more compact shape, relying on quick counters and the individual quality of Vitor Roque and Felipe Anderson. Their defensive line, led by Gustavo Gómez, absorbed pressure and ensured the point was secured.
Turning Point
The red card to Palmeiras in the 60th minute galvanized the visitors, who responded with renewed focus and found the equalizer through Vitor Roque.
Man of the Match
Vitor Roque
Scored the crucial equalizer and led Palmeiras' attack with determination, especially after his team went down to ten men.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras: Match Preview
Mirassol enter this round in 17th, just above the relegation zone, having taken only one point from their last five matches in all competitions and conceding 11 goals in that span. Their home form is average (5 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses from 12), but recent results—most notably a 1-5 home defeat to Flamengo—highlight defensive vulnerabilities. Palmeiras, top of the league, have dropped points in two of their last three league outings but remain the division's most consistent away side, with 7 wins and 23 goals scored in 12 away fixtures.
The statistical matchup is stark: Palmeiras' away attack (1.92 goals/game) faces a Mirassol defence conceding 1.59 per game on the season, and a leaky 2.2 over the last five. Mirassol's attack is modest (1.33 home goals/game), but their matches are open: 59% over 2.5 goals, and 4 of their last 5 have seen both teams score. Palmeiras, meanwhile, boast the league's second-best defensive record (0.83 goals conceded/game), but have allowed 1.4 per game over the last five, suggesting some recent regression. Both sides average over 4 corners per match, and Mirassol's 2.4 yellow cards per game points to a likely busy booking count.
The model projects a match tilted towards Palmeiras, with a 56% away win probability and over 2.5 goals slightly favoured at 54%. Mirassol's defensive record and Palmeiras' away scoring rate drive the prediction of a 2-1 away win, but Mirassol's ability to find the net at home keeps the door open for a closer contest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Mirassol vs Palmeiras that most previews miss.
- 1Mirassol have failed to keep a clean sheet in 21 of 22 league matches (95%).
- 2Palmeiras' away games average 2.83 total goals (23 scored, 11 conceded in 12).
- 3Over 2.5 goals has landed in 13 of Mirassol's 22 league matches (59%).
Who do you think wins: Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Mirassol vs Palmeiras(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2.2
Both teams have over 55% of matches over 2.5 goals this season (Mirassol 59%, Palmeiras 57%), and Mirassol's defence concedes 1.59 goals per game; the model's 54% probability for over 2.5 goals implies value against the 2.2 odds.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Palmeiras Win@ 1.97
Palmeiras average 1.92 points per away game and score 1.92 goals per away match, while Mirassol have lost 4 of their last 5 in all comps and concede 2.2 goals per game over their last 5; the away win is priced slightly too generously.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Mirassol vs Palmeiras Prediction
Statistically, this fixture lines up as a high-probability away win in a moderately high-scoring environment. Palmeiras' away attack (1.92 goals per game) faces a Mirassol side conceding 1.59 per match on the season and 2.2 over their last five. Mirassol's home scoring (1.33 per game) suggests they can contribute, but their defensive frailties and league position make them clear underdogs.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Palmeiras average 1.92 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per away match.
- →Mirassol have just one clean sheet in 22 league games (4.5% clean sheet rate).
Match Context
- →Both teams' matches go over 2.5 goals more than 55% of the time.
🚩 Mirassol vs Palmeiras Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Mirassol and 5 for Palmeiras, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Mirassol and Palmeiras Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Mirassollast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Palmeiraslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mirassol are trending downward, with just one point from their last five matches and 11 goals conceded in that span. Palmeiras, despite a recent loss at Fluminense, have taken 7 points from their last five and remain the league's top side, especially away from home.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: Mirassol vs Palmeiras
Palmeiras have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters, though Mirassol did claim a 2-1 home win in late 2025. Both teams have scored in 6 of those 9 meetings, and the last two H2Hs have finished 1-0 to the home side.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Mirassol wins
2
Draws
6
Palmeiras wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Mirassol vs Palmeiras
The model finds the most value in the over 2.5 goals market, with a 54% probability against odds-implied 45% (2.2), yielding a 19% edge. The away win is also slightly undervalued at 1.91, with a 7% edge, but the higher expected value is on goals.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Mirassol vs Palmeiras
- ⚠️Mirassol have a home win rate of 41% (5/12), so an upset is possible.
- ⚠️Palmeiras have drawn 3 of 12 away matches, and failed to score in 1 of their last 5.
- ⚠️No major injuries are reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Mirassol 1–2 PalmeirasPalmeiras' away scoring rate (1.92 per game) and Mirassol's porous defence (2.2 conceded per game over the last five) underpin a 2-1 away win prediction. The strongest data point is Mirassol's near-total absence of clean sheets this season. The main risk is Palmeiras' recent tendency to draw on the road and Mirassol's occasional home resilience.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras: Common Questions
Who will win Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
The model gives Palmeiras a 56% chance of victory, with Mirassol at 18% and the draw at 26%. Palmeiras' superior away record and Mirassol's defensive issues make the visitors clear statistical favourites.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Over 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54% probability, with both teams' matches going over this line in more than 55% of league games. Mirassol's defensive record and Palmeiras' away scoring suggest a good chance of goals.
Are both teams likely to score in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Both teams to score is rated at 49%, with Mirassol scoring in 11 of 12 home matches and Palmeiras conceding in 8 of 12 away. The market is finely balanced, but the data slightly favours 'no' due to Palmeiras' defensive strength.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mirassol vs Palmeiras: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.