Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Mjallby AIF
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Degerfors IF
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–0
Match Result
6.8/10Stalemate at Strandvallen: Mjällby and Degerfors Share the Spoils in Tight Contest
Mjällby AIF and Degerfors IF played out a 1-1 draw at Strandvallen in a match that ebbed and flowed but ultimately saw both sides settle for a point. Despite Mjällby enjoying the lion’s share of possession (56%) and firing 13 shots (5 on target), they were matched by a resilient Degerfors side who struck first against the run of play. The visitors opened the scoring in the 52nd minute, only for Mjällby to respond swiftly, equalizing just four minutes later. The encounter was characterized by disciplined defending and a lack of disciplinary issues, with neither side receiving a booking throughout the 90 minutes. Both teams had their moments, but neither could find the breakthrough in a tense second half, leaving the match finely balanced and reflective of the even nature of the contest.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
52' — Goal
L. Fritzson put Degerfors ahead against the run of play, finishing a swift move.
56' — Goal
J. Kjær quickly equalized for Mjällby, capping a period of sustained pressure.
Mjallby AIF
Mjällby AIF started on the front foot, controlling possession and dictating the tempo with their 3-4-3 setup. Their midfield quartet worked hard to create chances, resulting in 13 shots and 7 corners. After conceding early in the second half, Mjällby responded quickly, demonstrating resilience and attacking intent. However, despite their territorial advantage and greater attacking output, they struggled to convert opportunities into a decisive winner. Defensively, the back three provided a solid base, and the team showed good discipline, committing 14 fouls but avoiding any cards. Ultimately, Mjällby will feel they did enough to win but lacked the clinical edge in the final third.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF set up in a compact 5-3-2 formation, prioritizing defensive solidity and looking to hit on the break. They absorbed pressure well, limiting Mjällby’s clear chances despite conceding more shots and possession. Their approach paid off early in the second half as they took the lead in the 52nd minute, capitalizing on a rare foray forward. The visitors showed determination and organization, especially after being pegged back almost immediately. While they managed only 2 shots on target from 8 attempts, Degerfors remained competitive throughout, earning a valuable point away from home.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Mjällby’s 3-4-3 formation allowed them to dominate the ball and push their wing-backs high, stretching Degerfors’ five-man defence. The midfield pairing of Gustafson and Gustavsson provided control and recycling of possession, but Degerfors’ compact lines limited clear-cut chances. Degerfors’ 5-3-2 shape was designed to frustrate, with full-backs rarely venturing forward and the midfield trio working tirelessly to shield the back line. Both sides remained tactically disciplined, with neither manager opting for major formation changes. The lack of bookings and relatively even foul count (14 for Mjällby, 16 for Degerfors) reflected a match played with intensity but fair play. Set pieces, particularly corners, were a key avenue for Mjällby, but Degerfors’ aerial presence held firm.
Turning Point
Mjällby’s rapid equalizer in the 56th minute, just four minutes after falling behind, restored parity and set the tone for a balanced final half-hour.
Man of the Match
J. Kjær
Scored the crucial equalizer and was a constant threat, leading Mjällby's attack with purpose.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF: Match Preview
Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF both arrive at Strandvallen in need of points, sitting 12th and 14th respectively in the Allsvenskan with only three points separating them. Mjallby are winless in five (LDDLL) and have lost three straight at home, while Degerfors have lost four of their last five and failed to score in four of those. Both sides are hovering just above the relegation zone, so the stakes are clear.
The statistical profile points firmly to a low-scoring contest. Mjallby average 1.0 goals per home game and Degerfors just 0.73 away, while both concede between 1.6 and 1.7 per match in these splits. Recent form amplifies this: Mjallby’s last five have averaged only 0.6 scored and 2.2 conceded, while Degerfors have managed just 0.4 scored and 1.4 conceded. Degerfors have not seen BTTS in any of their last five, and Mjallby only three times. Set-piece threat is modest, with both sides averaging under 5 corners per match recently, but Mjallby’s higher shot volume (12.2 per game) and physical style (16.6 fouls, 2.6 yellows per game) may give them a slight edge.
Given the underlying rates and the head-to-head record—Mjallby have won 8 of the last 10, including all five at home—the likeliest outcome is a narrow home win. The model expects a cagey first half, with the majority of goal threat coming late as Degerfors chase the game. With both attacks misfiring and little evidence of a goal explosion, a 1-0 or 2-0 home result is the statistical baseline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF that most previews miss.
- 1Degerfors have failed to score in four of their last five matches, and have not scored in any of their last three away games.
- 2Mjallby have won all five of their last five home meetings with Degerfors, conceding just twice in that span.
- 3BTTS has landed in only 3 of the last 10 combined matches for these teams, with Degerfors seeing zero in their last five.
Who do you think wins: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–0
Mjallby’s home attack (1.0 goals/game at home) and Degerfors’ away attack (0.73 goals/game) both underperform, while both sides average under 1.7 goals conceded per match; the most probable outcome by distribution is a low-scoring home win.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams are below league average for over 2.5s (Mjallby 50%, Degerfors 41%) and have combined for just 2 goals per game across their last 5 matches each, with Degerfors failing to score in 4 of 5.
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BTTS: No
Degerfors have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 and Mjallby have failed to score in 2 of 5; BTTS has landed in only 3 of Mjallby’s and 0 of Degerfors’ last 5 games.
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More Allsvenskan Predictions
The Case For This Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF Prediction
Statistically, this is a low-scoring matchup between two bottom-half sides with blunt attacks and leaky defences, but Degerfors’ chronic away struggles and Mjallby’s historical H2H dominance tip the balance. Expect a cautious opening, with the home side’s slightly higher attacking output and set-piece threat likely to make the difference.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Degerfors have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches; Mjallby have failed to score in 2 of 5.
- →Mjallby have won 8 of the last 10 H2H meetings, including all 5 at home.
Defence
- →Mjallby average 1.23 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game, Degerfors 0.86 scored and 1.55 conceded.
🚩 Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Mjallby AIF and 4.7 for Degerfors IF, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Mjallby AIFlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Degerfors IFlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Both sides enter in poor form: Mjallby are winless in five (LDDLL), conceding 11 and scoring only 3 in that span, while Degerfors have lost four of their last five and failed to score in all but one. Degerfors’ away record is especially weak, with just 8 goals scored in 11 away games all season.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
What History Says: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
Mjallby have dominated recent meetings, winning 8 of the last 10 against Degerfors and all 5 at home. Most of these encounters have been low-scoring, with Degerfors rarely breaching the Mjallby defence when visiting.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
8
Mjallby AIF wins
1
Draws
1
Degerfors IF wins
Things to Watch: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
- ⚠️Both teams are in poor form, making the outcome vulnerable to variance.
- ⚠️Neither attack is reliable; a single early goal could open the game unexpectedly.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations and recommended bets are not price-anchored.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Mjallby AIF 1–0 Degerfors IFThe model projects a 1-0 win for Mjallby, with Degerfors’ anaemic away attack (0.73 goals/game) and poor recent scoring form the decisive factors. The likeliest way this prediction fails is if Mjallby’s own defensive frailty (1.73 conceded/game) gifts Degerfors a rare goal, or if an early goal destabilises the expected cagey rhythm.
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF: Common Questions
Who will win Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
The model gives Mjallby a 43% chance of victory, Degerfors a 22% chance, and a draw 35%. Mjallby’s superior head-to-head record and slightly stronger attack at home make them marginal favourites.
Will both teams score in Mjallby vs Degerfors?
The probability of both teams scoring is just 32%, with Degerfors failing to score in four of their last five and Mjallby in two of five. The data points to a high likelihood of at least one side blanking.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, the model estimates a 61% chance of under 2.5 goals. Both teams are below league average for high-scoring games and have combined for just 2 goals per game across their last five each.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.