Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions
Super League · China
Shenyang Urban
Full Time
3 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+2% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Shenyang Urban Rally to Overcome Chongqing Tongliang Long in 3-1 Comeback
Shenyang Urban delighted the home crowd at the Olympic Sports Centre Stadium with a spirited 3-1 comeback victory over Chongqing Tongliang Long in the Chinese Super League. After falling behind in the 21st minute, Shenyang Urban responded with three unanswered goals in the second half, showcasing resilience and clinical finishing. The visitors' hopes were further dashed by a late red card, compounding their woes on a frustrating afternoon. The match saw Shenyang Urban weather an early storm before taking control after the break. Chongqing Tongliang Long, despite a promising start, were unable to withstand the hosts' pressure, especially after being reduced to ten men. Four yellow cards for Shenyang Urban reflected their combative approach, but it was their attacking verve that ultimately decided the contest.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
21' — Goal
Chongqing Tongliang Long take the lead with the opening goal.
47' — Goal
Shenyang Urban equalize early in the second half, shifting momentum.
74' — Goal
Shenyang Urban go ahead with their second goal.
83' — Goal
Shenyang Urban score their third, sealing the win.
Late' — Red Card
Chongqing Tongliang Long reduced to ten men, ending hopes of a comeback.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Shenyang Urban pick up four yellow cards in a combative display.
Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban displayed impressive character, coming from behind to secure a deserved 3-1 win. Despite conceding first, they maintained composure and gradually asserted themselves, turning the tide with a flurry of second-half goals. Their aggressive play was evident in the four yellow cards picked up, but they managed to channel their energy positively in attack.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long started brightly, taking the lead in the first half and looking in control. However, they struggled to maintain their momentum after the break, conceding three times and seeing their discipline falter with a late red card. The inability to respond to Shenyang Urban's resurgence left them chasing shadows in the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With no formation data available, the flow of the match suggests Shenyang Urban made effective halftime adjustments, coming out with renewed attacking intent after the break. Their ability to score three times in the second half points to a more aggressive approach, possibly pushing more men forward and exploiting Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive frailties. The visitors, on the other hand, appeared to lose their shape and discipline as the match progressed, especially after conceding the equalizer. The red card late on further undermined any tactical cohesion, leaving them exposed and unable to mount a response.
Turning Point
Shenyang Urban's equalizer in the 47th minute shifted the momentum decisively, setting the stage for their comeback.
Man of the Match
Second-half goalscorer (47')
Scored the equalizer that ignited Shenyang Urban's turnaround and inspired the victory.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.4
The model sees a high probability of a stalemate given both teams’ defensive trends, low-scoring away games for Chongqing, and the recent form of Shenyang at home. The draw odds offer a +7% edge over the implied probability.
Read more ↓
Double Chance: Draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long are 2nd in the league, with a strong away record and defensive solidity (44% clean sheets). The model gives a 67% chance they avoid defeat.
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction
This fixture features a mid-table Shenyang Urban hosting high-flying Chongqing Tongliang Long. Shenyang have been inconsistent but have shown attacking threat at home, while Chongqing’s away form is steady and built on a tight defense. Both sides have recent momentum, but the matchup projects as a tactical, low-scoring contest with neither side likely to dominate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Head-to-head is balanced (2 wins each, 1 draw), but recent meetings have been low scoring.
Defence
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5, conceding just 0.6 goals per game in that span.
- →Shenyang Urban have scored 11 goals in their last 5, but also conceded heavily (9 goals).
Injuries & Team News
- →No key injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Shenyang Urban's home matches average 3.1 goals, but Chongqing's away games are much tighter (2.0 goals avg).
🚩 Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Shenyang Urban and 4 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, for an expected total of 8.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 44% · Over 10.5: 20%.
How Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Shenyang Urbanlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shenyang Urban have mixed recent form (LLWWW), scoring freely but also conceding heavily, highlighted by a 5-0 away win and a 1-5 home loss. Chongqing Tongliang Long are unbeaten in four of their last five (WWLWD), with a strong defensive record and two consecutive wins, including a 1-0 victory last time out.
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70.59% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Head-to-head history is balanced, with neither side dominating. Three of the last five meetings have ended with just one side scoring, and only one of those saw more than three goals, suggesting a tendency for tight, competitive matches.
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
3
Shenyang Urban wins
0
Draws
3
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
The draw market offers the clearest value, with model probability (36%) exceeding the implied probability from odds (29%), resulting in a +7% edge. Other markets, such as BTTS and under 2.5, show negative or negligible value compared to the odds, so the draw stands out as the primary value play.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
- ⚠️Some match stats (corners, fouls, cards) are based on limited last-5 data due to missing full match stats.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed for either side; late changes could impact tactical setup.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to the tight nature of both teams' recent results and defensive improvements.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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