ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
ST Johnstone
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Hibernian
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Hibernian Win
ST Johnstone vs Hibernian: Match Preview
St Johnstone enter this fixture with just one win from their opening three league games and a negative goal difference, having conceded six already. Hibernian, meanwhile, have split their first two league matches, including a notable 2-1 away win at Rangers, and arrive just above their hosts in the table, both sides on three points. Neither side has established early-season momentum, but Hibernian's recent European fixtures suggest a slightly higher competitive edge.
The statistical matchup points to a clash between St Johnstone's defensive frailty and Hibernian's functional, if not prolific, attack. St Johnstone's home match this season finished 4-3, and their season average is 1.67 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, with no clean sheets. Hibernian's away record is more robust, conceding just once at Rangers and scoring twice, while their last five in all competitions feature three clean sheets and an average of only 0.8 goals conceded. Both sides average under 3 shots on target per game, but St Johnstone allow more shots and have a lower clean sheet rate.
Model projections favour a narrow Hibernian win, with a 1-2 scoreline most likely. The distribution of goal timings suggests a higher probability of the away side scoring first, and the overall goal environment is above league average, with over 2.5 goals hitting in 54% of simulations. However, the lack of clean sheets for St Johnstone and Hibernian's defensive discipline could see the match decided by a single-goal margin.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ST Johnstone vs Hibernian that most previews miss.
- 1St Johnstone's only home league match this season ended 4-3, the highest total in any of their last 10 league games.
- 2Hibernian have kept three clean sheets in their last five competitive matches, despite conceding three to Gent in Europe.
- 3Only two of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in a draw, with the away side winning six times.
Who do you think wins: ST Johnstone vs Hibernian?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ST Johnstone vs Hibernian(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Hibernian Win
Hibernian have a 46% modelled win probability, supported by a superior away scoring rate (2 goals at Rangers, 1.5 per game season average) and a strong H2H trend (5 wins in last 10 meetings).
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have 66%+ over 2.5 rates this Premiership season, and St Johnstone's home match finished 4-3, indicating a higher goal environment.
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BTTS: No
Despite high over 2.5 rates, both teams have failed to score in 2 of their last 5, and Hibernian have 3 clean sheets in their last 5 across competitions.
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More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a moderate-to-high goal environment, with Hibernian's away attack and St Johnstone's leaky defence the main drivers. Hibernian's shot and scoring rates away from home, combined with their recent defensive solidity, tip the balance in their favour.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Hibernian have won 5 of the last 10 H2H meetings, including 3 away victories.
Defence
- →St Johnstone concede 2.0 goals per game in the league and have yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in at least two-thirds of their Premiership matches so far.
🚩 ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.1 corners for ST Johnstone and 3.8 for Hibernian, for an expected total of 8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 40% · Over 10.5: 18%.
How ST Johnstone and Hibernian Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ST Johnstonelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hibernianlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
St Johnstone have lost back-to-back league games after opening with a 4-3 win, conceding twice in each defeat and failing to keep a clean sheet. Hibernian's form is mixed, with a win at Rangers, a narrow home loss, and three clean sheets in their last five across all competitions, suggesting greater defensive resilience.
ST Johnstone vs Hibernian — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: ST Johnstone vs Hibernian
Hibernian have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning five of the last ten encounters and three of the last five at McDiarmid Park. Draws are rare, and the away side has won six of the last ten, indicating no strong home advantage in this fixture.
ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
ST Johnstone wins
2
Draws
5
Hibernian wins
Things to Watch: ST Johnstone vs Hibernian
- ⚠️Limited Premiership sample size for both teams (3 and 2 matches respectively) increases variance.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Hibernian's recent European schedule could affect freshness, but squad rotation data is limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ST Johnstone 1–2 HibernianThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Hibernian, grounded in their superior away scoring rate and St Johnstone's defensive record (2.0 conceded per game, 0% clean sheets). The most plausible way this goes wrong is if St Johnstone's home attack, which hit four against Kilmarnock, outperforms its underlying numbers against a Hibernian side coming off a congested schedule.
ST Johnstone vs Hibernian: Common Questions
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Hibernian?
Hibernian are modelled as 46% likely winners, with St Johnstone at 23% and a draw at 31%. The away side's stronger H2H record and better defensive numbers tip the probabilities in their favour.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in ST Johnstone vs Hibernian?
The model gives a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, based on both teams' high early-season scoring/conceding rates and St Johnstone's 66% over 2.5 rate in the league.
Will both teams score in ST Johnstone vs Hibernian?
Both teams to score is rated at 47%, with 'no' slightly more likely at 53%. This reflects Hibernian's recent run of clean sheets and St Johnstone's two blanks in their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ST Johnstone vs Hibernian: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.