Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Vasco DA Gama
Full Time
5 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Coritiba
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+16% edge)
Match Result
8.6/10Vasco DA Gama Run Riot at São Januário with 5-0 Rout Over Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama delivered a scintillating attacking display at São Januário, dismantling Coritiba 5-0 in a one-sided Serie A encounter. The hosts dominated from start to finish, racking up an astonishing 32 shots with 11 on target, and controlling 65% of possession. Goals came at regular intervals, with Vasco taking a 2-0 lead into halftime before piling on three more in the second period. Coritiba, by contrast, were simply overwhelmed. The visitors managed just four shots all game—only one of which troubled Léo Jardim in the Vasco goal. Despite deploying a 4-2-3-1 formation in hopes of containing Vasco’s vibrant front line, Coritiba found themselves chasing shadows as the home side’s relentless pressure and clinical finishing proved decisive.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
5 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
24' — Goal
Vasco DA Gama open the scoring after sustained pressure, setting the tone for the match.
44' — Goal
Vasco double their lead just before halftime, deflating Coritiba’s hopes of a comeback.
56' — Goal
A third goal early in the second half puts the game beyond Coritiba’s reach.
63' — Goal
Vasco continue their onslaught with a fourth, showcasing their attacking depth.
73' — Goal
The fifth and final goal caps off a dominant team performance.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Coritiba pick up two bookings as frustrations boil over; Vasco receive one yellow in a largely controlled display.
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama were in imperious form, dictating the tempo and stretching Coritiba with their width and movement. The midfield trio of Lescano, Sosa, and Thiago Mendes provided a solid platform, allowing the front three to flourish. Their 65% possession and 12 corners reflected their territorial dominance, while the defense rarely looked troubled. The attacking trident was ruthless, converting chances at regular intervals and keeping Coritiba’s backline under constant pressure. The only blemish was a solitary yellow card in an otherwise disciplined performance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Coritiba
Coritiba endured a torrid evening in Rio, unable to cope with Vasco’s intensity or creativity. The visitors’ 4-2-3-1 setup failed to stem the tide, as they conceded 32 shots and surrendered 65% possession. Their attacking efforts were minimal, with just a single shot on target and only two corners won. Defensively, Coritiba struggled to clear their lines and were punished repeatedly. The midfield was overrun, and the front line saw little of the ball, making it a night to forget.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Vasco DA Gama set up in a 4-3-3 formation, using their midfield trio to control possession and dictate the tempo. Their full-backs provided width, allowing wingers like A. Gómez to isolate defenders and create overloads. The home side pressed high, forcing Coritiba into errors and winning the ball back quickly. Set pieces were a constant threat, as reflected by their 12 corners. Coritiba’s 4-2-3-1 was intended to provide defensive solidity, but the midfield pairing was overrun and the back four left exposed. The visitors sat deep, but their inability to retain possession or transition into attack meant they were pinned back for long stretches, rarely threatening on the break.
Turning Point
Vasco’s second goal in the 44th minute, just before halftime, effectively killed off any hope of a Coritiba fightback.
Man of the Match
Bruno Duarte
Led the line superbly, involved in multiple goals and a constant menace to the Coritiba defense.
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba: Match Preview
Vasco DA Gama enter this fixture sitting 17th, just inside the relegation zone, but their recent home form offers a glimmer of hope: three wins in their last five matches at home and a notable uptick in defensive solidity, conceding just 0.4 goals per game over their last five in all competitions. Coritiba, meanwhile, are 7th and pushing for continental places, buoyed by a strong away record (5W, 4D, 4L) and an attack that has scored in every one of their last five matches.
The statistical matchup is finely balanced. Vasco average 1.08 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, but have been tighter at home. Coritiba’s away attack averages 1.38 goals per game, but their defence is similarly leaky (1.46 conceded per away match). Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in roughly half their games (Vasco 56%, Coritiba 50%), and Coritiba have registered BTTS in each of their last five. Set-piece threat is moderate on both sides, with Vasco averaging 5.2 corners per game in their last five and Coritiba 4.2.
Given the high draw rates in both teams’ seasons and their H2H history (six draws in the last ten), the model expects a close contest with neither side able to dominate. The most likely scenario is a 1-1 stalemate, driven by both teams’ tendency to concede and the lack of a clear edge in attack or defence. The probability distribution is wide, but the draw stands out as the value play.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba that most previews miss.
- 1Six of the last ten Vasco–Coritiba meetings have ended level, with three 1-1 draws in that span.
- 2Coritiba have seen both teams score in each of their last five league matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in that run.
- 3Vasco’s home matches average 2.62 total goals this season (16 scored, 18 conceded in 13 games).
Who do you think wins: Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.46
Six of the last ten H2H meetings have ended level, both sides average over one goal conceded per game, and the model's 33% draw probability exceeds the 28.6% implied by the odds.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.88
Coritiba have seen BTTS in all of their last five matches and Vasco have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in their last five, supporting a 55% BTTS probability.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Prediction
Statistically, this is a mid-table attack-versus-relegation defence matchup with both teams conceding over 1.3 goals per game across the season. Vasco’s home record (6W, 2D, 5L, 16:18) is balanced by Coritiba’s solid away output (5W, 4D, 4L, 18:19), and neither side keeps clean sheets reliably. The draw is the modal outcome in both the H2H and the underlying rates.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Coritiba have scored in every one of their last five matches and have five away wins this season.
Match Context
- →Vasco DA Gama have failed to win any of their last five away games, but have won three of their last five at home.
- →Six of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, including the most recent 1-1.
🚩 Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Vasco DA Gama and 4.2 for Coritiba, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vasco DA Gamalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Coritibalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasco DA Gama have tightened up defensively in recent weeks, conceding just two goals in their last five matches, but have only managed to win two of those games. Coritiba, in contrast, have been consistently finding the net, scoring in every one of their last five and winning three, including two away from home. Both sides are trending towards draws, with neither able to string together a dominant run.
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba
Draws are a recurring theme in this fixture, with six of the last ten meetings finishing all square, including a 1-1 in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Vasco’s 5-1 home win in 2023 is the exception in an otherwise tightly contested series. The data points to another close encounter.
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Vasco DA Gama wins
5
Draws
2
Coritiba wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba
The draw offers the clearest value at current odds (3.5), with the model’s 33% probability implying a 15% edge over the bookmaker’s 28.6%. Both teams to score also comes out slightly above market at 55% versus the implied 51.3%. Other markets, such as under 2.5 goals, are roughly in line with the odds, offering less value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba
- ⚠️Recent form for Vasco is slightly improved defensively (0.4 goals conceded per game last five), but their season-long rate remains poor (1.6 conceded per game).
- ⚠️Coritiba’s BTTS streak could regress, but both teams’ defensive records suggest goals both ways.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Vasco DA Gama 1–1 CoritibaA 1-1 draw is the likeliest outcome, underpinned by both teams’ season-long defensive frailties and the six draws in their last ten head-to-heads. The most plausible way this call goes wrong is if Coritiba’s attack, which has been consistently productive away, exposes Vasco’s underlying defensive weakness for a narrow away win.
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba: Common Questions
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
The model gives Vasco a 37% chance of victory, Coritiba a 30% chance, and the draw a 33% chance. Given both teams’ defensive records and the high H2H draw rate, a stalemate is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
There is a 55% probability of both teams scoring, with Coritiba seeing BTTS in all of their last five and Vasco’s defence conceding 1.6 per game over the season.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
The model estimates a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals, slightly favouring a lower-scoring match despite both teams’ recent BTTS trends; Vasco’s improved defensive numbers at home contribute to this edge.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.