Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Wisla Krakow
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 2
Jagiellonia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.6/10Wisla Krakow Dominate Jagiellonia with 2-0 Triumph at Synerise Arena
Wisla Krakow claimed a convincing 2-0 victory over Jagiellonia in front of their home fans at the Synerise Arena, asserting their dominance from the outset and never relinquishing control. The hosts struck early through Ángel Rodado in the 14th minute, setting the tone for a performance marked by relentless attacking intent and defensive solidity. Despite ceding the majority of possession (41% to Jagiellonia's 59%), Wisla were far more incisive, racking up 24 shots and forcing 7 saves from the visiting goalkeeper. Jagiellonia, meanwhile, struggled to translate their possession into meaningful chances, managing just 6 shots with only one on target and failing to win a single corner. Wisla's second goal, arriving in the 87th minute, sealed the result and capped a night where the home side's tactical discipline and attacking verve proved decisive. The visitors' frustrations were compounded by a solitary yellow card, as they failed to break down a resolute Wisla backline.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 2
Actual
2 - 0
Key Moments
14' — Goal
Ángel Rodado finishes clinically to give Wisla Krakow an early lead.
45' — Yellow Card
Jagiellonia pick up the game's only booking, reflecting their growing frustration.
87' — Goal
Wisla Krakow double their advantage, sealing the three points late on.
Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow delivered a commanding display, blending defensive organization with attacking flair. Despite having less of the ball, they were ruthless in transition, creating a barrage of opportunities and keeping Jagiellonia under constant pressure. Their 12 corners and 24 shots reflected a side determined to press their advantage, while the clean sheet highlighted their discipline and focus at the back.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia controlled possession for long stretches but lacked penetration and creativity in the final third. Their inability to register more than one shot on target or win a single corner underscored their struggles to break down Wisla's organized defense. Defensive lapses at key moments proved costly, and their attacking unit was largely stifled throughout.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Wisla Krakow lined up in a 4-2-3-1, prioritizing compactness and quick transitions. Their willingness to concede possession was offset by aggressive pressing and rapid attacks, particularly down the flanks, as evidenced by their 12 corners and 24 shots. The double pivot shielded the back four effectively, allowing the attacking quartet to exploit spaces left by Jagiellonia's advanced midfield. Jagiellonia's 4-1-4-1 formation emphasized ball retention, but their lack of width and penetration limited their effectiveness. With just one shot on target and no corners, their possession was sterile, and they struggled to cope with Wisla's pace on the counter. Substitutions failed to alter the tactical balance, as Wisla remained disciplined and dangerous until the final whistle.
Turning Point
Ángel Rodado's 14th-minute goal gave Wisla Krakow the early initiative and forced Jagiellonia to chase the game, exposing them to counter-attacks.
Man of the Match
Ángel Rodado
Scored the crucial opener and led the line with energy, setting the tone for Wisla's attacking display.
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia: Match Preview
Wisla Krakow approach this match in fourth place, buoyed by a perfect home record (three wins from three) and an attack averaging 2.0 goals per game across the season. Their recent form is mixed (LWDLW), but they have failed to score only once in their last ten league outings. Jagiellonia, two points behind in sixth, have been prolific away from home, netting eight goals in three away league matches, and come into this on the back of a 2-5 win at Raków Częstochowa despite a recent defeat at Lech Poznan.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by both sides’ attacking output and defensive openness. Wisla’s home matches average nearly three goals, and Jagiellonia’s away games have produced an average of 4.33 goals. Both have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and first-half goals are common—Jagiellonia have scored six before the break in their last five. Defensive solidity is lacking, with only one clean sheet apiece in their last five, and both sides’ over 2.5 goal rates (Wisla 83%, Jagiellonia 60%) reinforce the expectation of a high-scoring contest.
Given these trends, the model projects an open, balanced game with both teams likely to score and a high probability of over 2.5 goals. The most probable scorelines are 2-2 and 2-1 either way, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive frailties on display. A tactical shift or clinical finishing could tilt the balance, but the statistical base points to a draw with multiple goals.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
63%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia that most previews miss.
- 1Wisla Krakow’s home matches this season average 2.67 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded per game.
- 2Jagiellonia have scored in every away league match this season, averaging 2.67 goals per away game.
- 3Both teams have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, with only one clean sheet each in that span.
Who do you think wins: Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
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The Case For This Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Prediction
Both Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia enter this fixture with strong attacking numbers and defensive vulnerabilities, setting up a contest likely to be decided by conversion rates rather than tactical conservatism. Wisla Krakow have averaged 2.0 goals scored per game this season and remain perfect at home, while Jagiellonia’s away record shows eight goals in three matches, underlining their threat on the road. Neither side has managed more than one clean sheet in their last five, and both have seen four of their last five matches finish with both teams on the scoresheet. The statistical profile points to a high-probability goal environment. Wisla’s home matches average 2.67 goals for and 0.67 against, while Jagiellonia’s away games see 2.67 scored and 1.67 conceded per match. Both teams show a strong tendency for early goals: Jagiellonia have netted six times in the first half across their last five, and Wisla have scored four first-half goals in the same span. Cards and corners are less prominent, with both teams averaging under 4 corners per game and discipline figures hovering around 1.5 yellow cards per side. The model expects a balanced, open match with both teams likely to find the net. The most probable outcome is a 2-2 draw, driven by high rates of BTTS (four of last five for both) and over 2.5 goals (Wisla 83%, Jagiellonia 60%). The main risk to this scenario is a finishing slump from either side or a tactical shift towards caution given their close proximity in the table.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Wisla Krakow average 2.0 goals scored per game this season, with 100% home wins.
Defence
- →Jagiellonia have scored 8 goals in 3 away league matches (2.67 per game) but conceded 5.
🚩 Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Wisla Krakow and 3.9 for Jagiellonia, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Wisla Krakowlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wisla Krakow have won three of their last five league matches and remain unbeaten at home, scoring six and conceding two in those games. Jagiellonia’s recent form is similarly strong, with three wins in their last five and an impressive eight goals scored in three away league fixtures. Both teams have shown attacking consistency but defensive lapses, as evidenced by just one clean sheet each in their last five.
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia hold a slight advantage in recent head-to-heads, winning four of the last nine and drawing three. Matches between these sides have often been open, with three of the last five producing at least three goals. Both teams have found the net in four of the last six meetings, underlining the high BTTS probability.
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Wisla Krakow wins
3
Draws
4
Jagiellonia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value analysis cannot be performed. If market prices become available, the greatest divergence from model estimates is likely to be in the BTTS and over 2.5 goals markets, given the high underlying rates for both teams.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value or recommended bets can be computed.
- ⚠️Lack of full match stats for some recent games reduces confidence in set-piece and discipline projections.
- ⚠️Both teams have small sample sizes for the current season, increasing variance in derived averages.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Wisla Krakow 2–2 JagielloniaThe model calls this as a 2-2 draw, with the strongest supporting data being both teams’ high BTTS rate (80% in their last five) and robust scoring averages—Wisla at home and Jagiellonia away. The likeliest way this projection fails is if either attack underperforms in finishing or the managers opt for a more conservative setup given their close league positions.
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia: Common Questions
Who will win Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
The model gives Wisla Krakow a 36% chance to win, Jagiellonia a 33% chance, and the draw at 31%. Both teams have strong attacking records and defensive vulnerabilities, making a draw the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
There is a 67% probability of both teams scoring, driven by each side having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches and averaging over 1.5 goals scored per game this season.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability, with Wisla Krakow’s matches going over that line in 83% of league games and Jagiellonia’s in 60% so far this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.