Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions
Super League · China
Yunnan Yukun
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Yunnan Yukun Win
Match Result
6.7/10Late Equalizer Denies Yunnan Yukun in Tense 1-1 Draw with Chongqing Tongliang Long
Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long shared the spoils in a hard-fought 1-1 draw at the Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, as a late goal from the visitors cancelled out the hosts' first-half lead. Yunnan Yukun looked the brighter side for much of the contest, enjoying a slight edge in possession (53%) and peppering the Chongqing goal with 17 shots, though only two found the target. Their pressure paid off in the 34th minute when Cléber broke the deadlock, sending the home fans into celebration. Chongqing Tongliang Long, operating in a classic 4-4-2, struggled to assert themselves offensively for most of the match, registering just five shots and a solitary effort on target. However, they remained organized and patient, and their persistence was rewarded in the 82nd minute when Nany Dimata struck a dramatic equalizer. Both sides had six corners apiece, but neither could find a decisive winner in the closing stages.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
34' — Goal
Cléber finishes off a Yunnan attack to give the hosts a deserved 1-0 lead.
82' — Goal
Nany Dimata levels the match for Chongqing with a clinical finish from their only shot on target.
67' — Yellow Card
Xin Xu receives a booking, highlighting Yunnan's growing frustration as they try to hold their lead.
Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun dominated large spells of the match, dictating play with 53% possession and a robust midfield anchored by Xin Xu. Their attacking intent was clear, racking up 17 shots, but a lack of clinical finishing limited them to just two on target. The defensive line, marshaled by Andrei Burcă, looked solid until late on, when they were undone by Chongqing's rare foray forward. The hosts will rue their missed opportunities and inability to kill off the game after taking a deserved lead through Cléber.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long were second best for much of the contest, struggling to create clear chances and spending long periods on the back foot. Their 4-4-2 setup prioritized defensive solidity, and they managed to keep Yunnan Yukun from running away with the game despite conceding first. The visitors showed resilience and seized their moment late on, with Nany Dimata's 82nd-minute equalizer salvaging a valuable point. Their attacking output was limited—just five shots and one on target—but their efficiency proved decisive.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Yunnan Yukun lined up in a 4-1-4-1 formation, seeking to dominate the midfield and control possession through the likes of Xin Xu and Caio Vinícius. Their approach allowed them to dictate the tempo, push full-backs forward, and create overloads in wide areas, resulting in a flurry of shots but few clear-cut chances. Chongqing Tongliang Long, in contrast, set up with a compact 4-4-2, prioritizing defensive solidity and looking to hit on the break. Their midfield four sat deep, frustrating Yunnan's creative players and limiting space in the final third. Tactical substitutions in the second half saw both sides attempt to inject fresh legs, but neither could wrestle control decisively. Set pieces were evenly matched, with both teams earning six corners, but neither side could capitalize. Ultimately, Chongqing's patience and defensive discipline paid off, as they snatched a point with a late, clinical counter-attack.
Turning Point
Nany Dimata's equalizer in the 82nd minute, which stunned the hosts and shifted the momentum in the closing stages.
Man of the Match
Nany Dimata
Came up with a decisive equalizer from limited service, making the most of Chongqing's only shot on target.
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Match Preview
Yunnan Yukun come into this clash with real momentum, having bounced back from a heavy defeat at Hangzhou with back-to-back wins, including a resounding 5-0 thrashing of Shenyang Urban and a 1-0 cup victory over Chongqing Tongliang Long themselves. Their recent form string of WWLDW puts them in the top four and firmly in the hunt for a strong league finish, while Chongqing have slumped to ninth after a five-game winless run (LLDLD) in which they have scored just twice and failed to win away since July.
The tactical contrast is stark: Yunnan Yukun’s attack is in full flow at home, averaging 2.4 goals per game in their last five and notching 31 in 13 home matches this season. Chongqing, meanwhile, are struggling for cutting edge, averaging just 0.4 goals per game in their last five and failing to score in three of those. Yukun’s second-half goal surge (10 of their last 12 after the break) could prove decisive against a Chongqing side that often fades late, while the visitors’ improved away defence (1.15 goals conceded per away game) is being undermined by a lack of attacking threat.
Given these dynamics, the model expects Yunnan Yukun’s attacking momentum and home record to be the decisive factors. Chongqing’s recent struggles in front of goal and Yukun’s ability to finish strongly point towards a controlled home win, with the visitors likely to be shut out unless they can reverse their current attacking malaise.
How Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Yunnan Yukunlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Yunnan Yukun are on an upward trajectory, winning three of their last five and scoring freely at home, including a 5-0 demolition of Shenyang Urban. Chongqing Tongliang Long, in contrast, are winless in five and have managed just two goals in that time, illustrating a sharp downturn in attacking output.
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 82.14% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long that most previews miss.
- 1Yunnan Yukun have scored 10 of their last 12 goals in the second half, showing a strong finishing trend.
- 2Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to score in three of their last five matches, averaging just 0.4 goals per game in that span.
- 3Despite a tight H2H history (four draws in six), Yunnan Yukun have won both recent home meetings, including a 1-0 cup win last month.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction
Yunnan Yukun enter this fixture riding a wave of momentum, having won three of their last five matches and scoring eight goals in their last two home outings. Chongqing Tongliang Long, by contrast, are mired in a five-match winless run, struggling for goals and confidence as their form string of LLDLD attests. With Yunnan Yukun sitting fourth and pushing for a top-three finish, the stakes are clear, while Chongqing’s mid-table position offers little respite from their current slide. Statistically, the matchup tilts heavily in favour of the hosts. Yunnan Yukun’s attack has been prolific at home, averaging 2.4 goals per game in their last five overall and 2.38 at home across the season. Chongqing’s defence has been more robust than their attack, conceding just 1.15 away from home this season, but their offensive output has collapsed to 0.4 goals per game across their last five. Notably, Yunnan Yukun’s second-half scoring surge (10 of their last 12 goals after the break) could exploit a Chongqing side that has conceded late in recent matches. The model expects Yunnan Yukun’s superior momentum and home scoring power to decide the contest, especially given Chongqing’s blunt attack and recent struggles to create chances. While the head-to-head record is historically tight, Yukun’s recent 1-0 cup win over Chongqing and their current form suggest a controlled home victory, with the visitors likely to be shut out if their attacking malaise continues.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to score in three of their last five matches.
Attack
- →Yunnan Yukun average 2.4 goals scored per game in their last five, while Chongqing average just 0.4.
Match Context
- →Yunnan Yukun have won three of their last five, including a 5-0 home win and a cup victory over Chongqing.
Where the Model Sees Value: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Yunnan Yukun Win
Yunnan Yukun have won three of their last five, including a 5-0 home win and a recent 1-0 cup victory over Chongqing, while the visitors are winless in five and have scored just two goals in that span.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to score in three of their last five, and Yunnan Yukun have kept clean sheets in two of their last three home games.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Yunnan Yukun’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 84.6% of league games, and they are averaging 2.4 goals scored per game in their last five.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
🚩 Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Yunnan Yukun and 4.8 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
What History Says: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
The head-to-head record between these sides is historically close, with four draws in six meetings, but Yunnan Yukun have taken the upper hand recently, winning the last encounter 1-0 in the FA Cup. The last league meeting ended goalless, suggesting margins are often fine, but current form points to a shift in the balance.
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
1
Yunnan Yukun wins
5
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
With bookmaker odds unavailable, value assessment is limited. However, the model’s strong lean towards Yunnan Yukun, especially given their recent attacking form and Chongqing’s struggles, would likely offer value if market prices understate the hosts’ momentum. The low BTTS probability also stands out given Chongqing’s recent attacking woes.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
- ⚠️Chongqing’s away defensive record is better than their recent form suggests, which could keep the match tighter than expected.
- ⚠️Sample size for recent form is small and may not capture underlying tactical changes.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Yunnan Yukun 2–0 Chongqing Tongliang LongThe model calls a 2-0 home win for Yunnan Yukun, with the strongest signal coming from their recent attacking surge (eight goals in their last two home games) against a Chongqing side that has failed to score in three of five. The main risk is Chongqing’s away defensive record, which is better than their recent results suggest and could frustrate Yukun if the hosts are wasteful early.
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Common Questions
Who will win Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Yunnan Yukun are strong favourites with a 57% probability of victory, based on their recent form (three wins in five) and Chongqing’s five-game winless run. The draw is rated at 29%, with just a 14% chance for the visitors.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Both teams to score is rated at just 31%, with a 69% probability that at least one side keeps a clean sheet. Chongqing have failed to score in three of their last five matches, while Yunnan Yukun have kept two clean sheets in that span.
Can Yunnan Yukun’s strong form continue?
Yunnan Yukun’s recent momentum is backed by concrete numbers: three wins in five, 2.4 goals per game in that stretch, and a dominant 5-0 home win last time out. Their form string (WWLDW) and home record (eight wins in 13) suggest their run is sustainable, especially against a struggling Chongqing side.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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