Cadiz vs Valladolid Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Cadiz
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Valladolid
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Cadiz and Valladolid Share the Spoils in Tense 1-1 Draw at Nuevo Mirandilla
Cadiz and Valladolid battled to a 1-1 draw at Nuevo Mirandilla in a Segunda División clash that saw both sides enjoy spells of dominance but ultimately fail to find a decisive winner. The hosts took an early lead through Urko Izeta in the 17th minute, capitalizing on their slightly superior possession and pressing high up the pitch. Valladolid, however, responded well, gradually growing into the game and leveling the score just before halftime with a well-taken goal from Robin van Duiven in the 43rd minute. The second half was a cagey affair, with both teams creating chances but unable to break the deadlock. Valladolid edged the attacking statistics with 11 shots and 5 on target compared to Cadiz's 10 shots and just 2 on target, while both sides picked up four yellow cards apiece in a match that was fiercely contested in midfield. Ultimately, neither side could find the quality required in the final third to claim all three points.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
17' — Goal
Urko Izeta finishes off a flowing Cadiz move to give the hosts the lead.
43' — Goal
Robin van Duiven levels for Valladolid with a composed finish before halftime.
53' — Yellow Card
Jandro Orellana booked for a tactical foul, highlighting Cadiz's aggressive midfield play.
68' — Yellow Card
Miguel Rubio receives a yellow for Valladolid as the contest heats up.
81' — Yellow Card
Damián Rodríguez shown yellow as Cadiz look to disrupt Valladolid's rhythm.
Cadiz
Cadiz started brightly, pressing Valladolid and reaping the rewards with an early goal from Urko Izeta. Their 3-5-2 formation allowed them to control the midfield for stretches, but their attacking output waned after the break, with only two shots on target from ten attempts. Defensively, Cadiz were organized but occasionally vulnerable to Valladolid's quick transitions, particularly down the flanks. Four yellow cards reflected their combative approach, but they managed to avoid any dismissals.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Valladolid
Valladolid responded well after conceding early, gradually asserting themselves with a balanced 4-2-3-1 setup. Their attacking midfield trio provided width and creativity, resulting in more shots on target (5) than their hosts. Robin van Duiven's equalizer just before halftime was the highlight, and Valladolid looked the more likely to score in the second half, but lacked the cutting edge to turn their opportunities into a winner. Defensively, they remained compact and disciplined, matching Cadiz's physicality.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Cadiz lined up in a 3-5-2, seeking to dominate the midfield and exploit the flanks with wing-backs Giorgi Gocholeishvili and Antonio Cordero. This setup allowed them to control possession early and press Valladolid high, resulting in their opening goal. However, as the match wore on, Valladolid's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to stretch the play, utilizing the creative talents of Yeray Cabanzon and Luis Chacón behind van Duiven. The visitors' ability to transition quickly and create overloads in wide areas put Cadiz under sustained pressure, particularly in the second half. Both teams were disciplined defensively, but the lack of incisiveness in the final third was evident, with neither side able to convert late chances or set pieces into a winner.
Turning Point
Robin van Duiven's equalizer in the 43rd minute shifted the momentum, allowing Valladolid to regroup and push for a winner after the break.
Man of the Match
Robin van Duiven
His well-taken equalizer and lively attacking play were crucial in earning Valladolid a valuable away point.
Cadiz vs Valladolid: Match Preview
Cadiz arrive unbeaten in the league but lacking a cutting edge, having drawn both opening fixtures (0-0 at home, 2-2 away). Valladolid, meanwhile, sit 21st after a 0-2 defeat at Mallorca, and are yet to find the net in competitive action this season. With both sides still searching for a first win, the incentive is clear, but neither has shown the firepower to force the issue early in the campaign.
The statistical matchup is defined by low attacking output and solid, if unspectacular, defensive numbers. Cadiz average just 1.0 goal scored and conceded per league game, with a 50% clean sheet rate, while Valladolid's only league match saw them muster just one shot on target and concede twice. Both teams' last five match averages for shots on target are below 1 per game, and set-piece threat is muted (Cadiz 1.4 corners, Valladolid 0.6). Cards are likely, with Cadiz averaging 1 yellow per game over the last five.
Given these rates, the model expects a slow-burn contest, with a high probability of a goalless first half and a single goal likely to decide matters. The under 2.5 goals is strongly supported by both sides' early season output and the H2H trend, while the draw emerges as a logical outcome in a fixture where neither side has shown the ability to seize control.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
24%
BTTS: Yes
32%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cadiz vs Valladolid Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cadiz vs Valladolid that most previews miss.
- 1Cadiz have kept clean sheets in 50% of their league matches this season, but have failed to score in half of their last four competitive home games.
- 2Valladolid have averaged just 0.2 shots on target per game over their last five matches (including friendlies), highlighting a lack of attacking punch.
- 3Four of the last six H2H meetings between these sides ended 1-0 or 0-0.
Who do you think wins: Cadiz vs Valladolid?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cadiz vs Valladolid(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have low season scoring rates—Cadiz average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per league match, Valladolid failed to score in their only league outing, and the last 10 H2H meetings produced under 2.5 goals seven times.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw
Cadiz have drawn both league matches this season, and four of the last ten H2H meetings finished level; both sides show limited attacking output and high draw probability.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Cadiz vs Valladolid Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, closely contested affair. Cadiz's early season matches have been cagey, while Valladolid's only league game ended in a shutout. The distribution of recent results and the historical H2H record both point to a narrow margin, with neither side likely to dominate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Cadiz have drawn both league matches this season, conceding just twice.
- →Valladolid failed to score in their only league match and have a 0% clean sheet rate.
Match Context
- →Seven of the last ten H2H meetings featured under 2.5 goals.
🚩 Cadiz vs Valladolid Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Cadiz and 4.5 for Valladolid, for an expected total of 8.9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 53% · Over 10.5: 28%.
How Cadiz and Valladolid Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cadiz vs Valladolid Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cadizlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Valladolidlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cadiz have opened their Segunda campaign with two draws—0-0 at home and 2-2 away—showing defensive discipline but limited attacking threat. Valladolid, meanwhile, lost their only league fixture 0-2 at Mallorca, and their last five matches (including friendlies) feature two clean sheets but also two games without scoring. Neither side enters with momentum, and both are searching for a first win.
Cadiz vs Valladolid — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Cadiz vs Valladolid
The last ten meetings between Cadiz and Valladolid are balanced, with three wins apiece and four draws. Notably, seven of those ten games finished under 2.5 goals, and four ended either 0-0 or 1-0. The most recent encounter was a 3-0 Cadiz win away, but such high-scoring outcomes have been rare in this series.
Cadiz vs Valladolid Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Cadiz wins
4
Draws
3
Valladolid wins
Things to Watch: Cadiz vs Valladolid
- ⚠️Very limited league sample (2 matches for Cadiz, 1 for Valladolid) increases variance.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be formally calculated.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies may not reflect competitive intensity or true lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cadiz 1–0 ValladolidThe model projects a 1-0 Cadiz win, with the strongest statistical support coming from Valladolid's lack of attacking output—0 goals and only one shot on target in their only league match. The main risk is that Cadiz themselves have struggled to convert home dominance into goals, raising the draw probability.
Cadiz vs Valladolid: Common Questions
Who will win Cadiz vs Valladolid?
Cadiz are slight statistical favourites with a 40% chance of victory, while the draw is nearly as likely at 38%. Valladolid's win probability is just 22%, reflecting their lack of attacking output and poor away record so far.
Will Cadiz vs Valladolid be under or over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 72% chance of under 2.5 goals, based on both teams' low scoring rates (Cadiz 1.0 for/against per game, Valladolid yet to score in the league) and a strong under trend in their recent head-to-heads.
Are both teams likely to score in Cadiz vs Valladolid?
Both teams to score is rated at just 32%. Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in half their league matches, and Valladolid have failed to score in their only league outing, so a 'No' outcome is favoured.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cadiz vs Valladolid: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.