Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Predictions
Super League · China
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Shandong Luneng
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Shandong Luneng Win
Match Result
7.2/10Stalemate in Chongqing: Shandong Held by Resolute Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng played out a tense 1-1 draw at the Longxing Football Stadium, with both sides forced to settle for a point after an absorbing contest. The hosts took a surprise lead in the 25th minute, capitalizing on one of their rare forays forward, but Shandong’s pressure eventually told as they equalized midway through the second half. Despite Shandong dominating possession with 60% and firing 16 shots (five on target), they found it difficult to break down Chongqing’s disciplined five-man defence. Chongqing, meanwhile, defended doggedly, relying on counter-attacks and set pieces, and nearly held on for a famous win before Shandong’s persistence paid off. Both teams battled hard in midfield, with a total of 30 fouls and three yellow cards reflecting the competitive edge of the match.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
25' — Goal
Nany Dimata opens the scoring for Chongqing Tongliang Long against the run of play.
39' — Yellow card
Chongqing’s Ibrahim Amadou booked for a late challenge in midfield.
55' — Yellow card
Shandong’s Guilherme Madruga shown a yellow for dissent.
72' — Goal
Valeri Qazaishvili levels for Shandong Luneng after sustained pressure.
77' — Yellow card
Shandong’s Wenneng Xie cautioned for a tactical foul stopping a Chongqing counter.
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long executed their defensive game plan with discipline, frustrating Shandong Luneng for long spells. Despite having just 40% possession and only five shots (two on target), they made their limited chances count, taking the lead in the 25th minute and threatening occasionally on the break. Their back five, marshalled by Lucão and Pengxiang Jin, stood firm under sustained pressure, while midfielders like Ibrahim Amadou worked tirelessly to disrupt Shandong’s rhythm. Ultimately, Chongqing’s inability to maintain attacking pressure and relieve the siege in the second half allowed Shandong back into the game, but their resilience and organization earned them a deserved point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng controlled much of the game, dictating play with 60% possession and creating the bulk of the opportunities, registering 16 shots and five on target. Their 3-4-3 formation allowed for width and numbers in attack, with Valeri Qazaishvili and Chen Pu frequently probing Chongqing’s defensive lines. However, a lack of clinical finishing and Chongqing’s deep defensive block limited their effectiveness in front of goal. Persistence was eventually rewarded with a 72nd-minute equalizer, but despite sustained late pressure and five corners, Shandong could not find a winner. Their midfield, led by Guilherme Madruga, controlled the tempo, but frustrations grew as chances went begging.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long set up in a 5-4-1, prioritizing defensive solidity and crowding their own penalty area. Their wing-backs dropped deep, forming a compact line of five, while the midfield four worked hard to deny space between the lines. Attacks were largely limited to direct balls toward Nany Dimata and set pieces, with the side rarely committing numbers forward. Shandong Luneng’s 3-4-3 sought to stretch the play, with wide midfielders pushing high and the front three interchanging positions. They pressed aggressively after losing possession but struggled to penetrate Chongqing’s low block, often resorting to shots from distance or crosses that were dealt with by the home defence. Substitutions aimed to inject fresh attacking impetus but did not fundamentally alter the tactical battle.
Turning Point
Valeri Qazaishvili’s 72nd-minute equalizer shifted momentum and ultimately denied Chongqing a famous win.
Man of the Match
Lucão
Anchored Chongqing’s defence with composure and resilience, repelling wave after wave of Shandong attacks.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng: Match Preview
Chongqing Tongliang Long come into this fixture on a poor run, with no wins in their last five league matches (LLDLD) and just one goal scored across their last three. Their season has been defined by inconsistency, sitting 9th with a negative goal difference and only four home wins from thirteen. Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, are in the top six, have claimed six away victories, and possess the league’s third-highest scoring record, but their defensive record away from home (25 conceded in 13) keeps them from the very top.
The underlying rates point to a match where Shandong’s attack (1.77 goals/game overall, 1.31 xGF away) meets a Chongqing defence that has kept just four home clean sheets all season. Chongqing’s attack remains blunt, averaging only 1.04 goals per game and failing to score in three of their last five, while Shandong’s defence is unreliable on the road, conceding 1.92 per away match. Both teams’ last five matches average over 2.2 combined goals, and both previous H2H meetings produced four or more goals.
The model expects Shandong’s superior scoring output to tilt the contest, with the likeliest scenario being a 2-1 away win. However, Chongqing’s tendency to draw at home and Shandong’s leaky away defence mean a high-scoring draw is a plausible alternative. The most probable path is Shandong taking the lead and Chongqing chasing, with both sides likely to create chances, especially in the second half.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng that most previews miss.
- 1Shandong Luneng’s away matches average 3.23 total goals, with 69% finishing over 2.5.
- 2Chongqing Tongliang Long have drawn five of thirteen home games, the second-highest home draw rate in the league.
- 3Both H2H meetings produced at least four goals, with Shandong scoring three or more each time.
Who do you think wins: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Shandong Luneng Win
Shandong Luneng average 1.77 goals per game and have won 6 of 13 away, while Chongqing Tongliang Long have just 4 home wins and a -5 goal difference overall. The model gives the away side a 51% win probability, with no major injuries or suspensions to alter the baseline.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Shandong Luneng matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 69.2% of games this season, and both H2H meetings finished with 4+ goals. Chongqing's defence has conceded in 69% of home games, supporting a higher goal expectation.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 3 of Shandong's last 5 and 2 of Chongqing's last 5, with Shandong keeping just 3 clean sheets in 26 matches (11.5%).
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Prediction
Statistical rates point to a moderately high-scoring contest, with Shandong Luneng’s away attack facing a Chongqing side that has struggled to keep clean sheets at home. The away side’s superior scoring rate and recent H2H dominance make them clear favourites, but Chongqing’s ability to grind out draws at home keeps the draw probability elevated.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Shandong Luneng average 1.77 goals scored per game and 1.92 away from home.
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and average just 1.04 goals per game.
- →Shandong have won both previous H2H meetings, scoring 9 goals in total.
🚩 Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 5 for Shandong Luneng, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shandong Lunenglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Long are on a six-match winless run, with just two goals scored in their last five and back-to-back defeats at home. Shandong Luneng, in contrast, have won three of their last five and put three goals past Shanghai Shenhua away, but have also shown defensive frailty with only one clean sheet in that stretch.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng have dominated this matchup, winning both previous encounters and scoring a combined nine goals. Both meetings were high-scoring, with the most recent ending 3-1 and the earlier FA Cup tie finishing 6-3 to Shandong.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
1
Draws
2
Shandong Luneng wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value edges cannot be calculated. However, the model’s strongest divergences would likely be on Shandong Luneng to win and over 2.5 goals, given the underlying rates and H2H trends.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
- ⚠️Chongqing’s home record is not disastrous (4W 5D 4L, 17:17), so a stalemate remains plausible.
- ⚠️Shandong’s defence concedes 1.92 goals per away match, which could allow Chongqing opportunities.
- ⚠️No odds data available, so value calculations are limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–2 Shandong LunengA 2-1 win for Shandong Luneng is the model’s top pick, driven by their 1.77 goals per game rate and Chongqing’s lack of recent attacking output. The greatest risk to this forecast is Shandong’s away defensive record, which could allow Chongqing to salvage a point if they take their chances.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng: Common Questions
Who will win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng?
The model gives Shandong Luneng a 51% chance of victory, with Chongqing Tongliang Long at 22% and the draw at 27%. Shandong’s superior scoring rate and head-to-head record make them favourites, but their away defence leaves some room for a draw.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng?
Both teams to score is rated at 55%. Shandong have conceded in 11 of 13 away matches and Chongqing have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, but Shandong’s leaky backline keeps the BTTS probability above 50%.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 58%, based on Shandong’s 69% over 2.5 rate this season and both previous meetings producing four or more goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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