Cordoba vs Almeria Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Cordoba
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Almeria
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7/10Almeria Punish Wasteful Cordoba with Clinical Away Win
Almeria stunned Cordoba with a ruthless 2-0 victory at the Estadio Municipal de Córdoba, making the most of their limited chances in a match dominated statistically by the hosts. Despite Cordoba's overwhelming possession (59%) and a barrage of 21 shots, they failed to breach Andrés Fernández's goal, while Almeria struck twice in the second half through well-timed counterattacks. The deadlock was broken in the 52nd minute, and Almeria doubled their lead in the 70th, capitalizing on Cordoba's growing frustration and defensive lapses. Even after being reduced to ten men late on, Almeria held firm, frustrating Cordoba's attack and sealing a vital away win in the Segunda División.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
52' — Goal
Almeria take the lead with a swift counterattack, punishing Cordoba's high line.
70' — Goal
Almeria double their advantage, again capitalizing on Cordoba's defensive gaps.
78' — Red Card
Almeria reduced to ten men after a second yellow, but Cordoba fail to exploit the advantage.
81' — Yellow Card
Cordoba pick up their fourth yellow as frustration boils over.
Cordoba
Cordoba controlled the tempo for much of the match, dictating play with 59% possession and racking up 21 shots. Their midfield trio of Y. Diarra, Isma Ruiz, and Eder García recycled the ball well, while the front three worked tirelessly to create openings. However, a lack of cutting edge in the final third and poor finishing undermined their dominance. Nine corners and sustained pressure yielded no goals, and as frustration mounted, Cordoba collected four yellow cards and failed to capitalize on their numerical advantage after Almeria's red card.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Almeria
Almeria executed a disciplined defensive game plan, conceding possession but remaining compact and organized. With only four shots in the match, they made their chances count, scoring twice in the second half. Their midfield shielded the back four effectively, and the attack was clinical on the break. Even after being reduced to ten men, Almeria's resilience and tactical discipline saw them through, as they absorbed Cordoba's late pressure to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Cordoba lined up in a 4-3-3, seeking to dominate possession and stretch Almeria with width from their wingers. Their fullbacks pushed high, and the midfield trio dictated play, but the lack of a clinical striker was evident as chances went begging. Almeria, in contrast, set up in a compact 4-2-3-1, sitting deep and absorbing pressure before springing forward with direct, incisive counters. The away side's discipline in defense, even after going down to ten men, was crucial. Tactical substitutions from both sides did little to alter the flow, as Cordoba's attacking changes could not break down Almeria's rearguard.
Turning Point
Almeria's opening goal in the 52nd minute shifted momentum and forced Cordoba to chase the game, exposing them to further counterattacks.
Man of the Match
Andrés Fernández
Produced vital saves and commanded his area under relentless Cordoba pressure, ensuring a clean sheet.
Cordoba vs Almeria: Match Preview
Cordoba and Almeria enter this fixture level on points after three league rounds, both having posted a single win and two defeats. Cordoba’s recent home form is mixed, with a 2-1 win over Girona followed by a 1-3 loss to Granada, while Almeria’s away league campaign has started with back-to-back 0-1 defeats. Both sides sit in the lower half of the table, with defensive frailty a common thread.
Cordoba’s matches have averaged 3.0 goals per game so far, but their attack (1.67 per match) is nearly matched by their concession rate (2.33). Almeria, by contrast, have been involved in lower-scoring contests, averaging just 1.0 goals for and 0.67 against, and have yet to score away from home in the league. Cordoba’s last five have seen both teams score in four, but Almeria have not had a single BTTS in their last five, with three clean sheets in that span. Set-piece threat is muted on both sides, with each averaging just 3 corners per game recently.
The model expects a tight contest shaped by Cordoba’s defensive leaks and Almeria’s away attacking struggles. The likeliest scenario is a low-scoring draw, with neither side showing enough attacking consistency or defensive solidity to take full control. The 1-1 scoreline is the most probable outcome, with under 2.5 goals also favoured given Almeria’s away trends.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cordoba vs Almeria Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cordoba vs Almeria that most previews miss.
- 1Almeria have not scored in either of their two away league matches this season, both ending 0-1 defeats.
- 2Cordoba’s last five competitive matches have seen both teams score in 80% of games, but they have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league.
- 3The last ten head-to-heads have produced just one draw, a 1-1 at Cordoba’s ground, with Almeria winning six times.
Who do you think wins: Cordoba vs Almeria?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cordoba vs Almeria(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline is supported by both teams' season scoring rates (Cordoba 1.67 for, 2.33 against; Almeria 1.0 for, 0.67 against), the strong draw probability (36%), and the lack of attacking edge in Almeria’s away games (0 goals scored in two league away matches).
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Cordoba’s matches average 2.33 goals conceded but Almeria’s away fixtures have seen just 2 total goals in two games; model probability for under 2.5 is 59%.
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Double Chance: Draw or Almeria
Almeria have a strong recent H2H record (6 wins in last 10), and Cordoba have failed to keep a clean sheet all season; model gives 72% for Almeria avoiding defeat.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Cordoba vs Almeria Prediction
Statistically, this fixture profiles as a low-scoring, tightly-contested match between two sides with early-season inconsistencies and defensive vulnerabilities. Cordoba’s home attack is offset by a porous back line, while Almeria’s away struggles in front of goal are balanced by a more robust defensive record.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Cordoba have conceded 2.33 goals per game in the league, the second-worst defensive rate among the bottom half.
Match Context
- →Almeria have failed to score in both away league games but kept the goals against to just 2 in those matches.
- →Head-to-head: Almeria have won six of the last ten meetings, including a 4-0 away friendly win last month.
🚩 Cordoba vs Almeria Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Cordoba and 5 for Almeria, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Cordoba and Almeria Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cordoba vs Almeria Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cordobalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Almerialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cordoba have lost two of their first three league matches, conceding seven goals and failing to keep a clean sheet, but did manage a 2-1 home win over Girona. Almeria opened with a convincing 3-0 home win but have since lost both away games 0-1, highlighting their attacking issues on the road. Both teams are searching for consistency, with Cordoba’s defensive record a particular concern.
Cordoba vs Almeria — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Cordoba vs Almeria
Almeria have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning six of the last ten meetings, including a 4-0 friendly win away just last month. Cordoba have only managed one draw and three wins in that span, and have struggled to keep Almeria out, conceding at least twice in four of the last five. The only recent draw was a 1-1 at Cordoba’s ground last season.
Cordoba vs Almeria Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Cordoba wins
1
Draws
6
Almeria wins
Things to Watch: Cordoba vs Almeria
- ⚠️Small league sample (3 matches) limits confidence in underlying rates.
- ⚠️Cordoba's attack and defence have both shown volatility, with wide swings in goals for and against.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available for value calculation; all recommendations are probability-driven only.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cordoba 1–1 AlmeriaA 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline, driven by Cordoba’s high concession rate and Almeria’s lack of away goals. The strongest data point is Almeria’s inability to score away from home in the league, which tempers the likelihood of a high-scoring contest. The main risk is Cordoba’s volatility at both ends, which could swing the match towards a more open or lopsided result.
Cordoba vs Almeria: Common Questions
Who will win Cordoba vs Almeria?
The model gives Cordoba a 28% chance to win, with Almeria at 36% and the draw also at 36%. Both teams have started the season inconsistently, so a draw is the most likely outcome based on current rates.
Will both teams score in Cordoba vs Almeria?
The probability for both teams to score is 47%, with Cordoba’s matches often featuring goals at both ends (4 of last 5), but Almeria’s away games have not seen BTTS yet this season.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Cordoba vs Almeria?
Yes, the model assigns a 59% chance to under 2.5 goals, based on Almeria’s low-scoring away fixtures and Cordoba’s recent attacking output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cordoba vs Almeria: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 5 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.