Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Cracovia Krakow
Full Time
3 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Wieczysta Kraków
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8.5/10Cracovia Krakow Edge Five-Goal Thriller Against Wieczysta in Kraków Derby
Cracovia Krakow emerged victorious in a pulsating Kraków derby, defeating Wieczysta Kraków 3-2 at the Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium. The match ebbed and flowed, with both sides exchanging blows before a dramatic late winner sealed the points for the hosts. Wieczysta took the lead in the first half, but Cracovia responded just before the break and again after falling behind early in the second half, ultimately clinching the win in stoppage time. The contest was a showcase of attacking intent, with Cracovia registering 24 shots (6 on target) and Wieczysta replying with 12 (4 on target). Despite having less possession (45%), Cracovia's persistence paid off, while Wieczysta, who controlled 55% of the ball, will rue their inability to hold onto two separate leads. The result lifts Cracovia’s spirits and leaves Wieczysta searching for answers after a match they twice led.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
23' — Goal
Lisandro Semedo gives Wieczysta the lead after a swift counter-attack.
45' — Goal
Dijon Kameri levels for Cracovia just before halftime, finishing a well-worked move.
53' — Goal
Wieczysta retake the lead early in the second half through Tobias Christensen.
78' — Goal
Cracovia equalize again, with Mateusz Klich involved in the buildup.
90' — Goal
Kahveh Zahiroleslam scores the dramatic late winner for Cracovia.
67' — Yellow Card
Wieczysta pick up the only booking of the game, showing some frustration.
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow showed remarkable resilience and attacking drive, coming from behind twice to claim a memorable derby win. Despite conceding more possession to Wieczysta, they were relentless in attack, firing off 24 shots and winning 9 corners. Their midfield, packed with energy and creativity in the 4-5-1 setup, played a crucial role in both breaking up Wieczysta's play and launching quick transitions. Defensively, Cracovia had shaky moments, especially when Wieczysta pressed forward, but the back four and goalkeeper Sebastian Madejski stood firm in the closing stages. The late winner capped a performance full of determination and attacking intent.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków will be disappointed after twice taking the lead only to leave empty-handed. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed them to dominate possession (55%) and create several promising opportunities, reflected in their 12 shots and 4 on target. The midfield trio dictated much of the play, and their wingers caused problems for Cracovia’s defense. However, Wieczysta’s inability to manage the game after going ahead proved costly. Defensive concentration wavered at key moments, particularly late on, and their single yellow card suggested a lack of bite in breaking up Cracovia’s attacks. Despite their attacking promise, they ultimately succumbed to Cracovia’s relentless pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Cracovia set up in a 4-5-1, focusing on midfield solidity and quick transitions. Their central trio, led by Mateusz Klich, provided both defensive cover and attacking impetus, while the wide midfielders supported Zahiroleslam up front. The home side relied on set pieces and overloads in wide areas, as evidenced by their 9 corners and sustained pressure late on. Wieczysta’s 4-3-3 allowed them to dominate possession and utilize width, with Semedo and Mras stretching Cracovia’s back line. Their midfield trio sought to control the tempo, but as the game wore on, they struggled to contain Cracovia’s surges. Substitutions appeared to reinforce both teams' attacking options, but it was Cracovia’s tactical flexibility and willingness to commit numbers forward that ultimately made the difference.
Turning Point
Kahveh Zahiroleslam’s stoppage-time winner, capping a relentless Cracovia comeback and breaking Wieczysta’s resistance.
Man of the Match
Kahveh Zahiroleslam
His tireless work up front was rewarded with the decisive 90th-minute goal, sealing a dramatic derby victory.
Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków: Match Preview
Cracovia Krakow enter this fixture still searching for their first league goal, but with a defensive record that has kept them competitive, drawing twice and conceding only to Pogon Szczecin. Wieczysta Kraków, newly promoted and yet to register a point, have shown vulnerability at the back with four goals conceded in two league outings. Both teams are in the lower reaches of the table, with Cracovia 14th and Wieczysta bottom, so the stakes are already high for early-season momentum.
The statistical shape of the match is defined by Cracovia's defensive solidity and Wieczysta's defensive frailty. Cracovia average just 0.6 goals scored but only 0.4 conceded per game over their last five, while Wieczysta's matches see more action at both ends (1.2 scored, 1.4 conceded per last five). However, Cracovia's attack is among the league's least effective, with only 2.6 shots on target per game and three failed-to-score results in their last five. Wieczysta's attack is slightly more active, but their defensive metrics (0% clean sheets, 2.0 conceded per league game) suggest they struggle to manage pressure, especially away.
Given these underlying rates, the model expects a cautious affair with limited goalmouth action. Cracovia's defensive organisation should restrict Wieczysta's threat, but their own attack lacks the quality to capitalise. The most probable outcome is a low-scoring draw, with under 2.5 goals the standout statistical angle and 1-1 the likeliest scoreline by distribution.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków that most previews miss.
- 1Cracovia have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, but have failed to score in three of those games.
- 2Wieczysta's last five matches feature a 5:1 second-half to first-half goals ratio, indicating late-game action.
- 3Across both teams' league matches this season, only one first-half goal has been scored in five combined fixtures.
Who do you think wins: Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have low attacking output and defensive tendencies: Cracovia's league matches average just 0.67 total goals per game, and they have yet to score, while Wieczysta's matches are at 3.0 but inflated by defensive errors. The model gives a 68% probability for under 2.5 goals, with both sides struggling for attacking fluency.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw
Both sides are winless in the league and have shown little to separate them: Cracovia have drawn two of three, and Wieczysta have lost narrowly in both outings. The model's draw probability (36%) is slightly above typical league average for this market, reflecting the lack of attacking edge on both sides.
Read more ↓
More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków Prediction
This fixture features two sides struggling to find early-season rhythm, with Cracovia Krakow yet to score in league play and Wieczysta Kraków bottom of the table after consecutive defeats. Defensive solidity has been Cracovia's hallmark, conceding just twice in three matches and recording two goalless draws, while Wieczysta have shown some attacking intent but are conceding at twice the rate of their hosts. The data points to a low-scoring contest, with neither attack currently offering sustained threat. Statistically, Cracovia's defensive record (0.67 goals conceded per game, 66.7% clean sheet rate) stands in contrast to Wieczysta's porous back line (2.0 conceded per game, 0% clean sheets). However, Cracovia's attack is blunt, averaging just 0.6 goals and 2.6 shots on target per game across their last five, and failing to score in all league matches so far. Wieczysta's attack is marginally more productive (1.2 goals per last five, 1.0 shot on target per game), but their chance creation is limited and they have not kept a league clean sheet. First-half goals are rare for both, with Cracovia yet to score after the break and Wieczysta netting just once before half-time in their last five. With both teams lacking momentum and goal threat, the model expects a cautious encounter. The likeliest outcome is a low-scoring draw, with the distribution of rates suggesting a 1-1 scoreline as most probable. Cracovia's defensive structure should keep Wieczysta at bay for long spells, but their own lack of cutting edge limits their prospects of taking three points. The data signals under 2.5 goals as the highest-confidence angle.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Cracovia have failed to score in all three league matches, averaging just 0.6 goals per game across their last five.
Defence
- →Wieczysta have lost both league matches, conceding four times and keeping 0 clean sheets.
- →Cracovia's clean sheet percentage (66.7%) is among the highest in the division, but their attack is the least productive.
🚩 Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Cracovia Krakow and 4.5 for Wieczysta Kraków, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cracovia Krakowlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wieczysta Krakówlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cracovia Krakow come into this fixture on a run of three league games without a win, drawing twice and losing once, and have yet to find the net in competitive play. Their defensive record is strong, with two clean sheets and only two goals conceded. Wieczysta Kraków, meanwhile, have lost both league matches, conceding twice in each, and are on a three-match losing streak in all competitions.
Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków
There is no recent head-to-head data between Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków at this level, so no historical trends or recurring scorelines can be identified. This increases the reliance on current season form and statistical rates for projection.
Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Cracovia Krakow wins
0
Draws
0
Wieczysta Kraków wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków
No bookmaker odds are available at the time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated. The model's strongest statistical lean is towards under 2.5 goals, with a 68% probability, and a draw, with a 36% probability—both above typical market baselines for these outcomes.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available for these teams at this level, increasing uncertainty around matchup dynamics.
- ⚠️Early-season sample sizes (3 games for Cracovia, 2 for Wieczysta) limit confidence in rate-based projections.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Wieczysta KrakówThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven primarily by Cracovia's inability to convert possession and shots into goals (0 goals in three league matches) and Wieczysta's defensive frailty (2.0 conceded per game, 0% clean sheets). The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Wieczysta's late-game scoring trend continues against a tiring Cracovia side, or if either team capitalises on set-piece opportunities in an otherwise low-event match.
Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków: Common Questions
Who will win Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków?
The model rates this as a very even contest, with Cracovia given a 36% chance to win, the draw at 36%, and Wieczysta at 28%. Both sides are struggling for form, so a draw is the likeliest outcome.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 68% probability, based on Cracovia's defensive approach and lack of attacking output (0 goals scored in three league games) and Wieczysta's limited chance creation.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Both teams to score is rated at 44%, with 'no' the more likely outcome (56%). Cracovia have failed to score in all league matches, while Wieczysta have found the net in both but face a side with a 66.7% clean sheet rate.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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