Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon Predictions
Super League · China
Henan Jianye
Full Time
5 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Qingdao Jonoon
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
8.5/10Henan Jianye Run Riot in 5-1 Rout Over Qingdao Jonoon
Henan Jianye delivered a statement performance at the Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, dismantling Qingdao Jonoon 5-1 in a commanding Super League display. The hosts set the tone early, racing to a 2-0 lead within 24 minutes and never relinquishing control, eventually piling on three more goals in the second half. Despite a consolation strike from Qingdao Jonoon in the 67th minute, Henan's attacking verve and relentless pressure proved overwhelming. Statistically, Henan were dominant throughout, boasting 53% possession, firing 23 shots (10 on target), and earning seven corners. Qingdao Jonoon struggled to contain the home side's fluid 4-4-2, managing just four shots on target from 12 attempts and only two corners. The gulf in class was evident as Henan's forwards and midfielders combined to devastating effect, while Qingdao's defense was repeatedly breached.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
5 - 1
Key Moments
19' — Goal
Henan Jianye open the scoring, setting the tone for a dominant performance.
24' — Goal
Henan double their lead, putting Qingdao Jonoon on the back foot early.
50' — Goal
Henan strike again just after halftime, effectively sealing the contest.
60' — Goal
Fourth goal for Henan, showcasing their attacking depth.
67' — Goal
Carlos Strandberg pulls one back for Qingdao Jonoon, capitalizing on a rare defensive lapse.
70' — Goal
Henan restore their four-goal cushion, extinguishing any hopes of a Jonoon comeback.
73' — Yellow Card
Henan pick up their only booking, a minor blemish on an otherwise disciplined display.
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye produced an emphatic attacking display, overwhelming Qingdao Jonoon with pace, movement, and clinical finishing. The midfield quartet dictated the tempo, while the front two—Gustavo and Bruno Nazário—were a constant menace. Defensively, Henan were largely untroubled, aside from a brief lapse that allowed the visitors a consolation goal. Their 53% possession and 23 total shots underscored their authority, and the team's energy never dropped even with a comfortable lead.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon endured a torrid afternoon, struggling to match Henan Jianye’s intensity and organization. Their 4-4-2 setup was repeatedly exposed, especially in wide areas and on transitions. The midfield was often overrun, and the defense failed to cope with Henan’s movement. While Carlos Strandberg and Xinyu Liu worked hard up front, service was limited and clear chances were rare. The lone goal midway through the second half offered little solace in a game where Jonoon were second best throughout.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-4-2, but Henan Jianye’s midfield diamond frequently outnumbered and outmaneuvered their counterparts. The home side’s wide midfielders stretched the play, creating overloads and delivering quality service to the front two. Henan’s pressing was coordinated and effective, forcing turnovers and launching quick transitions that caught Qingdao Jonoon off guard. Set pieces were another weapon, with Henan earning seven corners to Jonoon’s two, further underlining their territorial dominance. Qingdao Jonoon’s flat midfield struggled to cope with Henan’s movement between the lines, and their full-backs were often isolated against overlapping runs. Attempts to switch play and counterattack were largely stifled by Henan’s disciplined defensive line and proactive midfield screening. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical balance, as Henan maintained their shape and intensity throughout.
Turning Point
Henan Jianye’s third goal just after halftime (50’) killed off any realistic chance of a Jonoon fightback and allowed the hosts to play with freedom.
Man of the Match
Gustavo
Led the line with authority, directly involved in multiple goals, and set the attacking tone from the outset.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon: Match Preview
Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon face off as near neighbours in the Super League table, both sitting just above the relegation zone with 21 points from 17 matches. Henan enter on a two-game losing streak, while Qingdao Jonoon have just one point from their last four away trips, underscoring the fragile confidence on both sides. With both clubs averaging more than a goal conceded per match and neither able to string together consistent results, the stakes are high for mid-table security.
Statistically, this fixture tilts towards goals but not an all-out shootout. Henan’s home attack is modest (9 scored in 8), but Qingdao Jonoon’s away defence is porous (17 conceded in 8). Both teams’ matches go over 2.5 goals in 58.8% of cases, and both average under four shots on target per game in their last five. Clean sheets are rare—Henan have managed just one at home in their last five, Qingdao Jonoon none away—while both sides see a roughly even split between first and second half scoring.
The model projects a balanced contest, with a 1-1 scoreline the statistical centre given the underlying rates and recent H2H trends. The likeliest deviation would be if Qingdao Jonoon’s away defensive issues are again exposed, but neither attack is prolific enough to make a high-scoring result the base case. Both teams to score and a draw are the most probable outcomes.
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon that most previews miss.
- 1Qingdao Jonoon have lost 6 of 8 away matches, conceding 2.13 goals per away game.
- 2Henan Jianye’s last three home games have all finished under 2.5 goals, despite a season over 2.5 rate of 58.8%.
- 3Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their last 10 combined league matches.
Who do you think wins: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
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The Case For This Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction
Both Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon arrive in similar positions, sitting 13th and 14th respectively, each with 6 wins from 17 and a negative goal difference. Neither side has found consistent form, with Henan losing their last two and Qingdao Jonoon winless in four away matches. The statistical shape of this fixture is defined by moderate attacking output and leaky defences: Henan average 1.06 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per match, while Qingdao Jonoon are more open, scoring 1.59 and conceding 1.65 per game, but their away record (10 scored, 17 conceded in 8) is particularly poor. The tactical contrast is clear: Henan’s home attack (9 goals in 8 home games) faces a Qingdao Jonoon defence that allows over two goals per away outing. However, Henan’s own defensive record at home is only marginally better, conceding 10 in 8. Both teams show a tendency for matches to go over 2.5 goals (58.8% for each), but neither keeps clean sheets reliably (Henan 17.7%, Qingdao Jonoon 11.8% season-long). Shot volumes are modest, with both averaging under 4 shots on target per game recently, and neither side has a set-piece or discipline edge based on corners and cards data. Given the underlying rates and the lack of a clear form signal, the model projects a balanced contest with a slight lean to both teams scoring and a moderate total, centring on a 1-1 scoreline. The most likely deviation would be if Qingdao Jonoon’s away defensive frailties are exploited, but Henan’s recent finishing has not been clinical enough to suggest a high-scoring home win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams average over 1.2 goals conceded per match and have a season over 2.5 goals rate of 58.8%.
- →Qingdao Jonoon have lost 6 of 8 away games, conceding 17 goals in those matches.
- →Henan Jianye have failed to score in only 1 of their last 5, but have also kept just 1 clean sheet.
🚩 Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Henan Jianye and 4.3 for Qingdao Jonoon, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 61% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Qingdao Jonoonlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianye come into this match on a two-game losing streak, having conceded twice in each of their last two league outings. Qingdao Jonoon have also struggled for momentum, with just one win in their last five and a particularly poor away run, losing six of eight on the road. Both sides have shown some attacking spark but remain defensively vulnerable.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon
Henan Jianye have the edge in recent meetings, winning three of the last seven encounters, while Qingdao Jonoon have won twice. The last three fixtures have all finished under 2.5 goals, and neither side has scored more than twice in any of those games. Home advantage has not been decisive, as both teams have managed away victories in this matchup.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
4
Henan Jianye wins
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon
With no bookmaker odds available, the model cannot identify value edges or recommend specific bets. The probabilities suggest the market should price the draw and both teams to score as co-favourites, with only a slight lean to the home side. If odds become available, value is most likely to appear on the draw or BTTS markets given the underlying rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment and recommended bets are suppressed.
- ⚠️Recent form is mixed for both sides, with small-sample volatility in last-5 data.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are unavailable at this stage.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Henan Jianye 1–1 Qingdao JonoonThe model settles on a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, driven by both sides’ season-long tendency to concede (over 1.2 per game each) and their inability to establish home or away dominance. The single strongest data point is Qingdao Jonoon’s away defensive record (17 conceded in 8), but Henan’s lack of attacking punch at home tempers expectations. The main risk is a swing towards either side if defensive errors or finishing variance tip the balance early.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon: Common Questions
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
The model gives Henan Jianye a 36% chance of victory, with a 32% probability for both the draw and a Qingdao Jonoon win. Both teams have similar season records and negative goal differences, so a draw is the statistical centre.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes is favoured at 59% probability, as both teams average over 1.2 goals conceded per match and clean sheets are rare for both sides this season.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
There is a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals, with both teams seeing 58.8% of their matches go over this line in the league, but recent H2H meetings have tended to be lower scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.