Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda Predictions
Super League · China
Henan Jianye
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Tianjin Teda
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7/10Tianjin Teda Snatch Victory in Zhengzhou Despite Henan Jianye’s Dominance
Tianjin Teda emerged with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Henan Jianye at the Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, despite being thoroughly outplayed for long stretches of the match. The visitors struck in the 27th minute and then dug in, withstanding wave after wave of Henan pressure as the hosts controlled 71% possession and fired 13 shots, but could not find a breakthrough. Henan Jianye will rue their profligacy in front of goal, as they managed just three shots on target from their dominance, while Tianjin’s compact 5-3-2 system proved resilient. Both sides picked up two yellow cards in a contest that often simmered with intensity, but it was the visitors’ clinical finishing and defensive organisation that ultimately decided the outcome.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
27' — Goal
Alberto Quiles scores for Tianjin Teda, finishing off a rare attack to give the visitors the lead.
34' — Yellow Card
Henan Jianye’s Abraham Halik booked for a late challenge.
41' — Yellow Card
Tianjin Teda’s Cristian Salvador shown a yellow card for a tactical foul.
62' — Yellow Card
Henan’s Lucas Maia cautioned for dissent as frustration grows.
74' — Yellow Card
Tianjin’s Xianjun Wang booked for time-wasting.
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye dictated the tempo from the outset, monopolising possession (71%) and probing relentlessly in the final third. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid movement and sustained pressure, but they struggled to break down Tianjin’s deep defensive block. Despite creating 13 shots and winning five corners, Henan’s end product was lacking, with only three efforts testing the goalkeeper. Defensively, Henan were rarely troubled, conceding just five shots, but a lapse in concentration in the 27th minute proved costly. The hosts pushed hard in the second half, making tactical substitutions to add fresh impetus, but ultimately could not convert their dominance into points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda executed a textbook away performance, soaking up sustained pressure and striking clinically when the opportunity arose. Their 5-3-2 formation provided defensive solidity, with the back five keeping Henan at arm’s length for much of the match. Despite only 29% possession and five shots, Tianjin made their limited attacking forays count, netting the game’s only goal in the first half. After taking the lead, Tianjin dropped deeper, defending resolutely and frustrating Henan’s attackers. Their discipline and organisation, combined with timely interventions from the midfield, ensured they held on for a valuable three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Henan Jianye lined up in a 4-2-3-1, aiming to dominate possession and create overloads in midfield. Their full-backs pushed high, but Tianjin’s disciplined 5-3-2 shape absorbed pressure and restricted space in the final third. Henan’s intricate passing and movement often fizzled out on the edge of the box, with Tianjin’s central defenders—led by Aitor Córdoba—standing firm. After taking the lead, Tianjin retreated further, inviting Henan onto them and relying on quick transitions for rare counterattacks. Substitutions from Henan injected fresh legs, but the lack of width and directness limited their ability to stretch the compact Tianjin block. Set pieces offered Henan some hope, but Tianjin defended them with authority.
Turning Point
Alberto Quiles’ 27th-minute goal, which allowed Tianjin Teda to sit back and defend their lead with discipline.
Man of the Match
Aitor Córdoba
Commanded the Tianjin defence, making crucial interventions and organising the back line under relentless pressure.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda: Match Preview
Henan Jianye enter this fixture on the back of four consecutive draws, sitting 12th with a record of 8-9-9 and a goal difference of -2. Their home form is almost perfectly balanced (4-5-4), and they've struggled to turn solid possession (55.6% average in last five) into wins. Tianjin Teda, two points behind in 14th, have found more recent momentum with back-to-back wins, but their away record (4-4-4) and season-long stats (1.38 scored, 1.23 conceded per game) suggest a side with similar limitations and strengths to their hosts.
The statistical matchup is close: Henan's attack averages 1.27 goals per game (home: 1.23), while Tianjin's away defence concedes exactly 1.00 per game. Conversely, Tianjin's away attack (1.25 per game) faces a Henan home defence conceding 1.00 per game. Both sides' recent matches have featured moderate shot volumes (Henan 16.6, Tianjin 14 per game in last five) and a high draw rate. Cards and corners are both near league average, with no clear set-piece outlier. Notably, Henan have seen both teams score in four of their last five, and Tianjin in three.
Given these rates, the model projects a low-scoring, closely fought match, with a 1-1 draw the likeliest outcome. The probability distribution is broad, but the most plausible deviation would be a narrow win for either side, likely stemming from a defensive lapse or set-piece. The underlying rates point to a contest decided by single moments rather than sustained dominance.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda that most previews miss.
- 1Henan Jianye have drawn four consecutive matches, scoring just 1.4 and conceding 2.0 per game in that span.
- 2Tianjin Teda have lost only four of twelve away matches this season (W4 D4 L4), conceding just 12 goals in those games.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have been won by Tianjin, but five of those ten saw both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average between 1.2 and 1.4 goals scored and conceded per game, and the draw rate is high (Henan 9/26, Tianjin 8/26). The 1-1 fits the underlying rates and recent form.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Henan have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5, and Tianjin in 3 of their last 5. Both average above 1.2 goals for and against per game.
Read more ↓
Double Chance: Draw or Tianjin Teda
Tianjin have lost only 4 of 12 away, and have a strong H2H record (6 wins in last 10). The model rates X2 at 0.68 probability.
More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda Prediction
Statistically, this fixture profiles as a balanced, mid-table clash with neither side showing a decisive edge in attack or defence. Both Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda concede and score at similar rates, and their recent form is marked by draws and narrow margins. The underlying numbers point towards a contest likely to be settled by fine margins, with a high probability of both teams finding the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Match Context
- →Henan's home record is neutral: 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, 16:13 goal difference.
- →Tianjin's away record is balanced: 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, 15:12 goal difference.
- →Both teams average between 1.2 and 1.4 goals for and against per game.
🚩 Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Henan Jianye and 4 for Tianjin Teda, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tianjin Tedalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianye have drawn each of their last four matches, with their attack producing 1.4 goals per game but conceding 2.0 in that span. Tianjin Teda have found more recent momentum, winning their last two and losing only once in five, conceding just 1.2 per game. Both sides have been difficult to separate, reflected in their nearly identical points tallies and goal differences.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 62% avg
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda have the historical edge, winning six of the last ten meetings, including two away wins in Henan. However, the fixture has produced several close contests, with five of the last ten seeing both teams score and only two ending in draws.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Henan Jianye wins
1
Draws
7
Tianjin Teda wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda
Bookmaker odds are unavailable, so no value edges can be calculated for this fixture. The model's probabilities suggest the draw and BTTS markets would be worth monitoring if prices are above 2.80 for the draw or 1.80 for BTTS Yes, given the underlying rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations and EV are not possible.
- ⚠️Neither team has a standout recent run; both are prone to draws.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries unknown at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Henan Jianye 1–1 Tianjin TedaA 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline, supported by both teams averaging just over a goal scored and conceded per game, and Henan's run of four straight draws. The likeliest way this projection goes wrong is if one team capitalises on a defensive error or set-piece, but the underlying rates and recent form point to parity.
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda: Common Questions
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
The model gives both Henan and Tianjin a 32% chance of winning, with the draw slightly more likely at 36%. Both teams have similar home/away records and goal differences, so a tight match is expected.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
There is a 58% probability of both teams scoring, supported by Henan's 4/5 and Tianjin's 3/5 recent BTTS rate. Both sides average over 1.2 goals for and against per game.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in this match?
The probabilities are nearly even: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for under. Both teams' season over 2.5 rates (Henan 53.85%, Tianjin 50%) suggest a balanced goal environment.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.