Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Piast Gliwice
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Widzew Łódź
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+30% edge)
Recommended Bets: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź: Match Preview
Piast Gliwice return to league action sitting 8th, having suffered back-to-back defeats but still boasting four wins from their opening nine matches. Their home form is patchy (2W, 1D, 2L), yet they've netted 12 goals in five at Stadion Miejski, and their recent five-match average of 2.4 goals scored per game shows attacking intent. Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, sit 12th after a run of four consecutive draws and just one win all season, but remain unbeaten away (1W, 3D) and have conceded only four times in four on the road.
Statistically, this is a contest between Piast's high-output, high-variance attack and a Widzew side that rarely gets blown away but struggles to put games to bed. Widzew's last five league matches average just 1 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with a notably blunt first half (0 goals across those five). Piast, conversely, have failed to score in none of their last five, but their defensive record (1.2 conceded per game) and a 33% clean sheet rate suggest vulnerability. Both teams have a 56% over 2.5 goals rate this season, but the model sees a cagey opening, with just a 42% chance of a first-half goal.
The market makes Widzew slight favourites, but the model rates this as a dead-even contest, with both sides given a 32% win probability and the draw at 36%. Given Widzew's draw-heavy profile and Piast's inconsistency, the value lies squarely with the stalemate, especially as neither attack looks likely to overwhelm the other's defence. Expect a tactical battle, with the most probable outcome a 1-1 draw.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
The most pronounced value edge is on the draw, where the model's 36% probability far exceeds the 28% implied by the 3.6 odds. The market's slight preference for Widzew is not fully justified by the data, given their high draw rate and Piast's strong home attack. No other market shows a clear enough edge to warrant a recommendation.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.47
The model assigns a 36% probability to the draw, significantly higher than the 28% implied by odds of 3.6. Both sides have drawn a combined 7 of their last 10 league matches, and Widzew Łódź have drawn 6 of 9 this season. With neither attack consistently outpacing the other's defence and both averaging 1.44–1.78 goals for and against, the market undervalues the stalemate.
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Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź that most previews miss.
- 1Widzew Łódź have drawn 6 of their 9 league matches and are on a run of four straight competitive draws.
- 2Piast Gliwice's home matches average 4.4 total goals, but they've only kept one clean sheet in five at home.
- 3All of Widzew's last five away games in the league have finished under 3.5 goals, with only four total goals conceded.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź Prediction
Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź come into this fixture with contrasting recent momentum but a shared tendency for tight, competitive matches. The market leans slightly towards the visitors at 2.4, but the underlying numbers and recent form suggest a far more balanced contest, with the draw offering the clearest value given both sides' propensity for stalemates and near-identical attacking and defensive averages.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Head-to-head history is heavily in Widzew's favour (7 wins from 9), but Piast's home attack (12 goals in 5) offsets some of that trend.
Defence
- →Piast Gliwice average 2.4 goals scored per game over their last five, but have lost their last two matches and conceded 1.2 per game in that span.
Match Context
- →Widzew Łódź have drawn 6 of their 9 league matches this season, including four straight in all competitions.
🚩 Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Piast Gliwice and 5.8 for Widzew Łódź, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Piast Gliwicelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Widzew Łódźlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Piast Gliwice are coming off two straight defeats but had previously won three in a row, scoring at least twice in each of their last five matches. Widzew Łódź, in contrast, are mired in a sequence of four consecutive draws and have managed just one win in nine league outings, though they've proven hard to beat, especially away from home.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź have dominated recent meetings, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters and three consecutive times at Piast's ground. However, the last five head-to-heads have mostly been low scoring, with only one match featuring more than three goals.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
2
Piast Gliwice wins
0
Draws
7
Widzew Łódź wins
Things to Watch: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
- ⚠️Recent friendlies for both sides may distort true competitive form.
- ⚠️No injury data reported, but lack of confirmed lineups adds uncertainty.
- ⚠️Piast's home matches have been high scoring (over 2.5 in 56%), increasing volatility in correct score markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Piast Gliwice 1–1 Widzew ŁódźThe model's predicted 1-1 scoreline is driven by Widzew's extraordinary draw rate (6 of 9 league matches) and Piast's inconsistent but potent home attack. The clearest value is on the draw at 3.6, with the main risk being if either attack finds an extra gear against defences that have both shown lapses this season.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź: Common Questions
Who will win Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
The model rates both teams equally, with a 32% chance for either side to win and a 36% probability for the draw. Widzew have drawn 6 of 9 league matches, and Piast's home form is inconsistent, making the stalemate the likeliest outcome.
Is there value in betting the draw for Piast vs Widzew?
Yes, the model finds significant value in the draw at odds of 3.6, with a model probability of 36% versus the market's implied 28%. Both teams have drawn a combined 7 of their last 10 league matches.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
There's a 54% model probability for both teams to score, with Piast failing to score in none of their last five and Widzew keeping just one clean sheet in their last five away. However, both attacks have shown inconsistency, so the margin is narrow.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.