Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Pogon Szczecin
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Wisla Plock
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Pogon Szczecin Win
Match Result
7.3/10Pogon Szczecin Held by Resilient Wisla Plock in Entertaining 1-1 Draw
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock played out a lively 1-1 draw at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. After a cagey first half, the match burst into life after the break, as Pogon broke the deadlock in the 52nd minute, only for Wisla Plock to respond swiftly with an equalizer eight minutes later. The hosts dominated possession (58%) and peppered the Wisla goal with 22 shots, but only managed to test R. Leszczynski with four on target. Wisla Plock, meanwhile, were more efficient with their chances, registering eight shots on target from 13 attempts and looking dangerous on the counter. Both teams finished with three yellow cards apiece in a contest that was competitive but never boiled over.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
52' — Goal
M. Wojciechowski puts Pogon Szczecin ahead, finishing off a well-worked move.
60' — Goal
J. Jimenez levels for Wisla Plock, capitalizing on a quick counter-attack.
68' — Yellow Card
Tense period sees both teams pick up bookings as tempers flare.
80' — Save
R. Leszczynski denies Pogon with a crucial save to preserve the draw.
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin controlled much of the game, dictating play with their 4-3-3 formation and enjoying 58% of possession. Their attacking intent was clear, as they racked up 22 shots and forced six corners, but a lack of clinical finishing let them down. The midfield trio worked hard to recycle possession and create openings, but the frontline struggled to convert pressure into goals, with only four shots on target. The defense looked solid for long stretches, but a lapse after taking the lead allowed Wisla Plock to level the score.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock set up in a 3-4-3 and executed their game plan with discipline, absorbing pressure and hitting Pogon on the break. Despite seeing less of the ball (42% possession), they were a constant threat in transition and made their chances count, registering eight shots on target from 13 attempts. Their equalizer showcased their resilience, and the back three, marshaled by M. Kaminski, dealt well with Pogon's attacking surges. Wisla's midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Pogon's rhythm and launch quick counters.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Pogon Szczecin lined up in a 4-3-3, focusing on ball retention and width, with full-backs pushing high to support attacks. Their midfield trio allowed them to dominate possession but lacked penetration in the final third. Wisla Plock’s 3-4-3 was designed to soak up pressure and spring forward quickly, using the wide players to exploit spaces behind Pogon's advanced full-backs. The tactical battle was evident as Pogon probed patiently while Wisla looked to break with pace, and both sides made like-for-like substitutions in midfield and attack to maintain their respective shapes and intensity. Set pieces were a key avenue for Pogon, who forced six corners but couldn’t capitalize. Wisla’s compact defensive block and quick transitions kept Pogon honest, and their ability to convert limited possession into clear chances was notable.
Turning Point
J. Jimenez’s equalizer in the 60th minute, which shifted momentum and ensured Wisla Plock left Szczecin with a valuable point.
Man of the Match
J. Jimenez
Scored the vital equalizer and was a constant threat on the break, embodying Wisla Plock's efficient approach.
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock: Match Preview
Pogon Szczecin arrive in this fixture with eight points from five matches, underpinned by a defence conceding just 0.8 goals per game and a recent run of two draws and two wins. Wisla Plock, by contrast, sit 16th with only one win, a -7 goal difference, and three straight defeats, having failed to score in three of their last five outings. The home side's league position and current form string (DDWWL) point to greater stability and momentum.
The statistical matchup is defined by Pogon's defensive efficiency—two clean sheets in the last five, and just four goals conceded all season—against a Wisla Plock attack averaging 0.6 goals per game. While the visitors generate a healthy 16.2 shots per match, their conversion rate is poor, and they've shipped eight goals in three away games. Pogon's home attack is steady if unspectacular, averaging 1.67 goals for and 1.33 against per home match, while Wisla Plock's away defence is leaking 2.67 per game. Corners and cards are both above league average, with the visitors averaging eight corners and 1.6 yellows per game, suggesting set-piece opportunities and a physical contest.
Given these rates, the model expects Pogon Szczecin to control proceedings, likely taking the lead in the first half and restricting Wisla Plock's chances. With the away side's attacking output so limited and Pogon's defensive record strong, a 2-0 home win is the modal outcome, with the probability distribution skewed towards low-scoring home victories.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock that most previews miss.
- 1Wisla Plock have failed to score in three of their last five matches, averaging just 0.6 goals per game this season.
- 2Pogon Szczecin's matches have gone under 2.5 goals in three of five league games so far.
- 3Wisla Plock's away games are averaging 3.67 total goals, but 62% of those have been conceded by Plock.
Who do you think wins: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Pogon Szczecin Win
Pogon Szczecin have averaged 1.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded per game this season, while Wisla Plock have managed only 0.6 goals per game and conceded 2.0, with a -7 goal difference after five matches. The home side's defensive record and the away side's lack of attacking output drive a clear home edge.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Wisla Plock have failed to score in three of their last five matches and average just 0.6 goals per game, while Pogon Szczecin have kept two clean sheets in their last five. The model gives a 68% probability to both teams not scoring.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Despite Wisla Plock's high concession rate, Pogon Szczecin's matches have gone under 2.5 goals in three of five this season, and the away side's lack of attacking threat points to a lower-scoring contest.
Read more ↓
More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Prediction
Pogon Szczecin's defensive solidity and Wisla Plock's blunt attack set the statistical tone for this fixture. The home side's consistent shot suppression and low concession rate contrast sharply with the visitors' struggles in front of goal, especially away from home. The most likely scenario is a controlled home win with limited threat from Wisla Plock.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Pogon Szczecin average just 0.8 goals conceded per game this season.
Match Context
- →Wisla Plock have scored only three goals in five matches and failed to score in three of their last five.
- →Pogon Szczecin's home matches average 1.67 goals for and 1.33 against per game.
🚩 Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Pogon Szczecin and 6.7 for Wisla Plock, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Pogon Szczecinlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wisla Plocklast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Pogon Szczecin have built momentum with two wins and two draws in their last four, conceding just twice in that span. Wisla Plock, meanwhile, are on a three-match losing streak and have scored only once in their last three, highlighting a significant contrast in current trajectories.
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin have the recent upper hand in this matchup, winning four of the last ten and taking the most recent meeting 3-0 at home. The fixture has often been low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals in six of the last ten and Wisla Plock rarely finding the net in Szczecin.
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Pogon Szczecin wins
4
Draws
3
Wisla Plock wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
With bookmaker odds unavailable, value assessment is limited. However, the model's strong lean towards a home win and 'BTTS: No' is grounded in the underlying scoring and concession rates. If market odds on the home win or 'BTTS: No' drift above 1.85, these would represent potential value based on current probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
- ⚠️Early-season data means small sample sizes; recent form may overstate or understate true team strength.
- ⚠️A single defensive lapse or set piece could swing the match against the statistical trend.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Wisla PlockThe model projects a 2-0 win for Pogon Szczecin, anchored by the home side's defensive record (0.8 goals conceded per game) and Wisla Plock's lack of attacking punch. The main threat to this outcome is an outlier conversion from Plock's high shot volume or a set-piece lapse, but the underlying rates favour a controlled home win and a clean sheet.
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock: Common Questions
Who will win Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Pogon Szczecin are favoured with a 54% probability of victory, compared to 17% for Wisla Plock and 29% for the draw. The home side's defensive record and the visitors' poor attack drive this edge.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
The model gives a 68% probability to 'No' for both teams to score, reflecting Wisla Plock's three blanks in their last five and Pogon's two clean sheets in the same period.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 53%, despite Wisla Plock's high concession rate, due to Pogon's controlled defensive style and the away side's low scoring average of 0.6 goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.